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The thing is - I can almost see this happening. The reason is that Obama was not a normal candidate. He came out of nowhere, trounced the Clintons ... it wasn’t a normal popularity contest. People weren’t voting for ‘the better of the two’ ... they were voting for ‘the one, the perfect man.’ (the anti-Roarke in Rand terms)

Now that the illusion is gone, the intellectual hypnosis broken ... Now that he quit on his supporters, no longer has the glow ... looked at as simply a Chicago pol - he’s not a likable guy, doesn’t like people himself, can no longer shroud his record in “it’s part of a plan that’s BIIIGGGEEERRRRR THAN YOU” ...

Left as only a man - there is very little there. His youthful charm is gone, he looks weary, angry and unhappy, his policies haven’t worked (not that they ever could,) the Middle East is 1000 degrees hotter than it was after Bush, he’s gaunt, serious, a killjoy, an excuse maker, there is no vision. (Surprising that they couldn’t even whip up some kind of flowery rhetoric about how things would change in 2 years)

In fact - I think most dems would have a hard time arguing with Romney saying “Hey, I’m not Bush, and by the way, if you didn’t like Bush - this guy is worse.” We’re hated more, disrespected more, financial crisis turned into a bigger financial crisis ...

That’s why I’m still open to this thing being not an election that falls along a continuum, but a binary choice by America to ‘get the hell out.’

The Obama campaign was always a bandwagon campaign, almost a cult. The more people liked him, the more people followed the people that liked him. That dynamic is in reverse now. He’s betrayed his base, no one believes in HopeyChangey any more. The country is twice as divided as it was 4 years ago. Racial tensions are triple, but guilty whites have repented by electing him - the race card bank account is empty.

Now, he’s an un-cult.

There is a case to made that this will be a historic election. The gallup trend (I don’t trust their numbers, but I trust the trend) ... after a debate that most on the left and many on the right say he won ... and yet lost on every sub-question ... taxes, deficit, economy ... women swinging almost 20 points away from him ... losses in every single other demographic category ... I read that the Jewish vote is about half and half now.

I think there’s a one in three chance that blue states jump off the bandwagon as quickly as they jumped on it. He was never a normal candidate. People voted for an illusion. It’s not that the illusion fell short - it’s that they now see it was a complete illusion - the illusion has vanished entirely. ‘Falling short’ is a continuum thing. ‘Real vs Not Real’ is a binary thing. This is what I see in the liberals I know. Some say they will vote for him - but it seems only like needing to avoid cognitive dissonance regarding their initial choice.

Most just don’t want to talk about it much. No signs, no bumper stickers. No pride. Nobody believes in him anymore, and that’s because they never should have.

So I think we’re looking at a binary sort of election, and that introduces a certain volatility into the outcome.