"Hi-Ho, Hi-Ho..."
Posted on 10/14/2012 11:07:03 AM PDT by Arthurio
Gallup: R 49%, 0 47%
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
The Colorado professors using an economic model have never been wrong either, and they have picked Romney. Why focus on a single thing - betting?
Plausibly, I think IEM or Intrade could easily be gamed by someone with a big stack, simply for the sake of saying their candidate was “winning”.
meaningless. Another clear Romney debate win should seal the deal. Hopefully he has it in him
But how much money is traded in those “markets”?
I think money raised by the candidates is a better factor, and looking at these number Romney kicks ass.
But how much money is traded in those “markets”?
I think money raised by the candidates is a better factor, and looking at these number Romney kicks ass.
October surprise, you mean like, “oh, here’s Zawahiri, under this rock the whole time”
IEM and Intrade can change on a dime. They are snapshots for a moment in time. IEM and Intrade flipped and flopped and fluctuated wildly in 2004 when the exit polls said Kerry was going to win. Then it started swinging toward Bush. It was 20-80, 80-20, and then toward the end of the night 55-45 Bush until it became clear it was Bush. If Romney does well in the 2nd debate, you’ll see Intrade and IEM flip in a split second.
"Hi-Ho, Hi-Ho..."
“I don’t think they’ve ever been wrong.” Wrong when? In mid-October? Or the day before the election? People need to stop looking toward Intradea nd other things like that in October.
Bubbles do not deflate instantly.
Is 2004 chopped liver?
You are right about that. My original post was just a comment on how different the Rasmussen, etc. poll results are from the IEM at this time. As far as whether they have been accurate, you can check the historical data at the webpage below. The IEM has a history of being very accurate at final outcome.
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/closed/
He doesn’t have to win back voters, he will just cancel the election if it looks like he is going to lose./s
That market always reflects establishment conventional wisdom. If I remember correctly, it was favoring Kerry on election day 2004 until substantial results started coming in. It is less helpful than polls in discerning which way the election is heading. It is a very lagging indicator.
Bah, they are setting up the gullible for the already scripted Obama “win” proclamations of the next debate and his subsequent massive surge in the “polls” following it boosting him into the election....
It's a given that the Lamestream Media will declare Osama to have *crushed* Romney in both upcoming debates.How many voters,if any,will be fooled?
The MSM tried to do that with the VP debate. They know they can’t allow another Romney blowout. I’m definitely looking for the media to spin it any way they can to put Obama on top.
This is a big point. Many outside of the US would love to see Obama selected and have us screwed even more.
The CNN “immediate reaction” poll has served as a nice buffer against the media spin. For some reason this usually irresponsible network has been doing something right.
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