Posted on 10/13/2012 6:27:43 PM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.
The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.
We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.
The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.
One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.
One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'
In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel 49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37% of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Mandel may have more to worry about in 2014- he trails a generic Democrat 40-39 for reelection as State Treasurer. This campaign- at least to date- has been pretty damaging to his image. Others notes from Ohio:
-The state's referendum to create an independent commission on redistricting looks a little bit more alive than it did two weeks ago, although it's still an uphill battle. 37% of voters support it to 44% opposed, compared to a 26/49 spread last time. The main movement has been among Democrats who've gone from favoring it only narrowly (37/34) to pretty strong support (58/24).
-John Kasich has a 42/41 approval spread and leads a hypothetical Democratic opponent 45-42.
-John Boehner's very unpopular in his home state with a 33/46 approval rating. Nevertheless Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot 44-42.
-Rob Portman has a 35/25 approval rating. 40% of voters have no opinion about him.
Full results here
According to PPP’s Twitter feed their first nights of polling showed an incredibly tight race. The KOS/DU kooks went nuts. But on Saturday, everything turned around for Barak and Blowhole. They did “much better.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2944401/posts
Gravis Poll
R 46
O 45
D 36.4, R 33.1, I 30.5
This poll has a much better sample. Although it is more likely to be an even, or R + 1 or 2 on election day.
PPP is a lying Rat pollster and full of it!
Ohio is worrying the you know what out of me.
:/
CORRECTION: the Gravis poll is Rat +6.
Democrat
36.4%
Other
33.1%
Republican
30.5%
Gravitas just two days ago had Romney up one with a +6 D sample. Don’t buy this for a minute. This outfit is by far the most biased for reasons OTHER than the D/R split. I won’t go into their questions again, but I’m confident in the earlier poll. This is not an outlier. It’s a fraud.
BTW, the way you KNOW this poll is bogus is the Brown/Mandell number: every other recent poll has this tied or has Mandell ahead, but this one has an 8-point Brown lead. So, I submit to you the right # here is Romney by 3, and yes, if he wins OH by 3 it will be a very big win nationally.
Hmmm? I wonder who the families of the four who were murdered in Libya would favor in this goofy poll? The Ohian people, and the rest of the people in the country, better wake up and realize that this administration can’t be trusted to tell the truth.
So, that tells me the real number is Romney by about 3.
To answer your question about contrast---and remember, Gravitas had Romney up one in OH 48 hours ago---you need to look at their QUESTIONS. In the previous OH PPP poll, they asked: (now, remember this is OHIO):
"What is your opinion of Elizabeth Warren?" (!!)
"Who is more responsible for killing Osama bin Laden, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?"
"What is your opinion or Julian Castro?"
"What is your opinion of Martin O'Malley?"
In case you don't recognize these people, they were speakers at the DEMOCRAT convention and only DEMOCRATS would even know who they are. I bet 20% of all Ohioans don't know who Elizabeth Warren is. Yet the PPP Poll did not ask about Mandell that time.
I think these people are as reliable as the old Zobgy internet polls.
What do you make of this?
“The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they’ve already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven’t voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.”
And even that sample is D-heavy.
So, we should elevate this one over Gravis which, with a +6 has a Romney lead? And we should give this credibility when Ras has Obama up one with a +3 D advantage? I say nay nay.
So, we should elevate this one over Gravis which, with a +6 D advantage has a Romney lead? And we should give this credibility when Ras has Obama up one with a +3 D advantage? I say nay nay.
Well, the early votes aren’t officially counted until election night. So it seems to me, this 3-1 garbage is just an exit poll, which always seems to favor Democrats.
Yes, you’re right but, ooooo I can’t shake 2008 in my head.
If this was any outfit but PPP, I'd be worried. Ras at D+3 is oversampling Ds and still only has Obama +1 and still not at 50. The absentee numbers are tightening, but Rs still have decisive, often dominant leads or turnarounds from 04. But I'll admit, could be surprised on election night.
More than likely, though, it's the Ds who will be surprised.
WaPo caught PPP with their hand in the cookie jar. These people are frauds. Outed by less dishonest fellow libs.
Use some common sense here. Republicans have requested 23.4% of early ballots and dems 30 percent. The other 46 % are unaffiliateds. This is hard data from the spreadsheet. For obama tohave a 76 to 24 lead among early voters, one must assume he gets all 30 % of the dems requesting ballots plus ALL THE OTHER 46% UNAFFILIATEDS REQUESTING BALLOTS WHICH IS JUST ABSURD ON ITS FACE.
Thanks, but my question isn't about the inaccurate poll, it is specifically about reconciling the below italicized sentence with your early ballot request numbers in Ohio. It's out of mere curiosity, I'm not worried about Ohio.
If both things are true - your numbers, and the numbers referred to below, then we are looking at a wild statistical aberration, which can not be explained by asking leading questions about Liawatha (I'm from MA), nor can it be explained even if they were using as much as a D+10 Model. The question is about early ballots cast D76 to R24 vs your reports of early ballot request partisan breakdown.
"The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. "
See what I'm getting at? Nothing to do with the questions asked during the polling, and too great a statistical anomaly vs your numbers re: partisan breakdown of early ballot requests. That's what I'm trying to reconcile.
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