Rasmussen Daily Tracking: MON 10/08: R:48% O:48% Obama -11%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/08/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

Monday, October 08, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

While there have been modest swings in recent months that have favored one candidate over the other, the overall picture is of a race that is both stable and very close. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other. That is exceedingly close in a poll with a three percentage-point margin of error. See daily tracking history.

[RetiredArmy]

Romney had his first big appearance before the American public in the debate. Many will probably wait to see if he can continue to carry the water in the next debate. If he does well in this debate and does not improve in a big way, I just think he is in trouble. When you have 48% of the country wanting to reelect a fool that has driven this nation into the ground, then that simply tells you that 50% of this nation is on drugs, welfare, food stamps and free stuff. As long as they get that, they will continue to vote for the fools. But, the fools give 50% what they want. When the bottom falls out and the so called rich don’t have any more money to give to the deadbeats, then the riots begin because they don’t get their free stuff. Romney may be in trouble through no fault of his own. It is mainly because, this my fellow citizens, is WHAT AMERICA HAS BECOME. A nation of deadbeats.

[pburgh01]

Thanks for the uplifting speech, more fiber Retired Army, more fiber. Good thing we didn’t have guys like you at Valley Forge, we’d be flying the union jack over DC right now.

[RetiredArmy]

Sure smart mouth, you are the man. If you are dumb enough too look around and think Romney is going to run off and hide, so be it. But as long as 50% of this nation remains in the deadbeat catagory, that is the way it is going to be. To prove my point, my wife and I went to the grocery store the other day. The woman in front of us had at LEAST 10 of the foodstamp credit cards they give them now. They kept running them through the credit card reader until they used up the ones with low money on them and then got to the bigger $$$ ones. These are regulars that we see all the time with these things. Tons of people with these things. Think they are going to vote for Romney. Nope, don’t think so. So you can go back to sleep now and think he will just win. I think he has a fight on his hands like no other. I did not think McCain had a chance at all. Final vote proved me right. The last time I felt like the republicans would win was when Klinton won reelection. Got that one right also. I have been voting since 1969. And I have followed this stuff since that time because I was always voting for who my commander in chief was going to be. Then, at least I have seen combat and have the scars to prove it. When did you? In a video game? Right, thought so.

[Colonel Kangaroo]

Romney was right that a growing culture of dependency is a danger. He was totally correct that people who do not pay federal income taxes are less likely to be persuaded by tax cuts. Where he missed badly was when he associated workers who do not pay income taxes to moochers with no sense of responsibility.

Yes, entrepreneurs are having it rough, but they are not the only productive Americans who are and many of those productive people under siege don't make enough to pay income taxes but are every bit as valuable to the nation as entrepreneurs.

[Mjreagan]

Are the other 13% of independents undecided? If they are and break at least 2:1 for the challenger, we’re looking at 61-39....no way Obama would have a chance down 22 points with independents.

[Cruising For Freedom]

I’m posting from my cell right now so can’t do it, but it should be pretty easy to confirm my reverse engineered party IDs by just cross checking against some of profit_guy’s internals from that thread and see if they arrive to the same numbers.

[Friendofgeorge]

Yep CNN put one over on me, this morning flipping the dials at around 8:30 AM they had the poll scrolling across bottom of screen, I double checked it by going backwards with my PVR, definitely was as I said, but it must have been their last poll.

I did as you did and searched and found nothing.

It read CNN/ORC poll Obama ahead by 6 points with likely voters, mentioned that this was 1 week after it was tied I believe 48-48.

At any rate I was taken for a ride, my apologies. However it was dishonest to run that as a headline, especially after their snap poll post debate that was so bad for Obama.

I went back to CNN, later and nowhere to be seen, they then just ran new poll has Obama Romney tied, was it a mistake or CNN just trying to mislead folks? Probably the latter

[Friendofgeorge]

Maybe Ras should talk to Pew and Gallup? Just kidding, I do not trust any of them!

You can be sure that Pew etc will give a push to Obama in final stretch

[BrianE]

exactly! every time i see a poll in my mind i’m like WTF are sheeple thinking?

[hinckley buzzard]

Who knows. I like poll reults as much as the next guy but this is getting to be a lot like picking through chicken entrails. We should all take a deep breath and wait till next weekend, after the VP debate, and see where we are then. It could all be different, either better or worse, but still won't be even close to the last word.

[NY4Romney]

Let’s also keep in mind that this poll is mainly on the weekend, which had the bogus job numbers as the main story going in (plus Obama’s typical weekend advantage). It’s obvious the momentum is with Romney now. For example, I was simply voting AGAINST Obama until the debate. Watching it, I felt an extreme sense of pride for Romney and the Republican Party, and actually changed my mentality to actually being not just anti-Obama, but pro-Romney. This guy is what this country needs, and if the debate had that kind of effect on me, I know it had that effect on millions of others. We will win this.

[BrianE]

lol! or golf!

[Cruising For Freedom]

Rasmussen is using a D+5 model, and here's the math.

In a prior thread, I reverse engineered the Ras breakdown percentages to 34.4%R / 39.3%D / 26.6% I (D+5 gap).

Since there's some controversy on whether Ras is using 3D or 5D model, I thought I'd show the math. Here's profit_guy's internals (thanks, BTW!) as of Sunday:



Confirming these calculations are easy enough by picking a few party breakdown crosstabs and seeing if they match the answer. I picked the following three:

Total Approve      (50%) = 0.14R 0.87D 0.42I 
Wrong Direction    (57%) = 0.89R 0.25D 0.62I 
Romney Leaners     (49%) = 0.89R 0.10D 0.54I

Here's the math:

Total Appove    = 0.14*0.344 + 0.87*0.393 + 0.42*0.266 = 0.5018 (50%)
Wrong Direction = 0.89*0.344 + 0.25*0.393 + 0.62*0.266 = 0.5693 (57%)
Romney Leaners  = 0.89*0.344 + 0.10*0.393 + 0.54*0.266 = 0.4891	(49%)

So, I think my original calculations of Rasmussen using D+5 gap are correct after all. Furthermore, note that Rasmussen is predicting a D turnout equal to or slightly greater than 2008, where exit polls showed that 39% of the voters self-identified as Ds. Take what you will.

[NKP_Vet]

The race is shaping up to be a blow-out. I would be willingly to bet the 70 million people that watched the debate are primed and ready to throw Obummer’s sorry ass out the door. Most had only heard negative putdowns and lies about Romney. Like Reagan in 1980 he had been painted as being out of touch and not up to the job. Next month will be a repeat of 1980. It’s just a crying shame that this worthless fake and fraud Kenyan-born marxist will be on the US taxpayer dole for the rest of his natural life. The exact same salary, almost a half million dollars a year, for trying to destroy this country. What a retirement package. It makes me sick to my stomach. Congress should change that law and ex presidents should fall under the Federal Employees Retirement System, exactly like other federal employees. It’s disgusting knowing he will use those four years to become a filthy rich millionare, with the same salary and the same perks that he had while mascarading as president.

[Cruising For Freedom]

BTW, note the IDs won’t add up to exactly 100. This is a result of Rasmussen’s roundings not giving enough precision needed, but the ratios should be very very close to what he’s really using. Safe to assume D+5.