ps: choose any, or all, or add your own !
Posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:45 PM PDT by dialup_pundit
When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.
In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.
That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote...
Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama won in 2008 by 23 points.
Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100512-628435-polls-show-obama-could-lose-illinois.htm#ixzz28X8nPjpF
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
Very interesting.
Unfortunately Lake County ain’t what she used to be. Even more troubling is suburban Cook. In 2006 Tony Perica the GOP candidate for County Board President got 31% in the city, which was enough to win, but failed to well enough in the suburbs, and the 2010 results were curious.
One reason that State Sen. Brady lost was Lex Green, the libertarian candidate. Quinn beat Brady by about 20,000 votes, and Green got about 34,000 votes. If Green didn’t run, almost all of his voters would have voted for Brady, and Brady would have won. I hope that nothing similar happens, in the presidential race, in Illinois. We should encourage all anti-Obama voters, in IL, to cooperate and vote for Romney.
i always laugh at peeples who donate to candidates and then want a refund. Now I am one of them.
Gave $25 at a Linda McMahon event. Linda now says she wants to repeal DOMA. Give me my money back so I can give it to somebody else. I am getting cheap about donations. I find that whenever I make the bigger donations, I get rude treatment from staff and when I give small $$$, I get the VIP treatment. Not sure why.
http://www.cookcountyclerk.com/elections/2012Elections/Pages/AllCandidates.aspx
First off, four presidential tickets made it on the ballot in Illinois: Barack Obama & Joe Biden, Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan, Gary Johnson & James P. Gray, and Jill Stein & Howie Hawkins. No Constitution Party nominees or "American Independence" Party, which I believe freeper & Alan Keyes activist EternalVilance is running for President under this year. This makes it less likely that disgruntled conservatives will vote "third party" in Illinois, since the only alternatives on the ballot is the marxist Greens or the socially liberal Gary Johnson. IL Constitution Party Chairman Randy Stufflebeam has been bashing Romney for his flip-flops lately, so I asked Randy on facebook if he was planning to mount a write-in campaign for Virgil Goode due to the fact they didn't get on the ballot in Illinois. (I know in Crook County, "write-in" voters are not counted unless the candidate files an "Intent to be a Write-In Candidate" form) No reply from Randy. Hmmm.
Illinois' 4th Congressional District GOP candidate Hector Concepcion appears to have clawed his way back onto the ballot for the general election, after having to run a write-in the primary. He's ballot spot #12. I believe Impy lives in IL-4, so congrats Impy, you have a GOP candidate on the ballot to vote for over the socialist Luis Gutierrez. ;-)
I endorse all the GOP congressional candidates from Illinois this year, with two notable exceptions: Rita Zak in IL-7, who appears to be on the ballot but is running an invisible campaign and is quite possibly a RINO (our own freeper Phil Collins is running a write-in campaign as the only conservative actively campaigning against Davis. Since Davis is a shoo-in, might as well cast a vote for someone decent we can trust, and that's not Zak). The second is Mark Kirk Jr., er, I mean Robert Dold in IL-10. The "I'm a socially moderate" guy who voted with the Dems in favor of allowing abortion for gender selection. I've had it to hear with elitist RINOs from that district lying to get conservatives to support them. If I lived in IL-10, I'd leave it blank. Screw Dold. (though since Phil Collins is being paid to help him out, I can see why he'd take the money in this economy)
We actually have three qualified candidates for county offices in Crook, and they're all making an effort to actually campaign this year! (a rarity since Crook is a 1-party Democrat county. It's all female vs. female races too. Please vote for Diane S. Shapiro for Clerk of the Circuit Court, Sherri Griffith for Cook County Recorder, and Lori S. Yokoyama for State's Attorney.
Mike Madigan (state house district 22) has a REAL Republican opponent for the first time in YEARS (rather than a Democrat plant who is paid by him to stay home). His opponent is Robert Handzik and he's making a real effort to fight. It would still take a miracle for him to win, though.
Soon-to-be-imprisoned State Rep. Derrick Smith is way ahead of his opponent in polls, and I don't see a party affiliation listed so Lance Tyson must have filed as an independent with no party. Still, we know the RAT bosses would prefer Tyson as they're both black marxists but Smith is damaged goods. I actually hope Smith wins, another criminal elected in Illinois will embarrass the RATs and he probably won't even last long enough to cast any votes before he's sentenced.
The Crook County sample ballot has a section for "Superintendent, Kane County Regional Office of Education". Huh? Why would Cook County voters be selecting the school board superintendent of another county? Weird stuff. Can the suburban residents vote for Mayor of Chicago? (if we could, Rahm would have probably been forced into a runoff at least)
For the first time in YEARS, we also have a Republican candidate for Illinois Supreme Court justice from Crook County. They'll elected countywide (which means all city residents choose whoever they want and no Republican has a snowball's chance in hell of winning), but at least Impy will have a GOP judge on his ballot now. It's James Gerard Riley, ballot number #72
Shockingly, Carl Segvich made it on the ballot as the Republican nominee for Metropolitan Water Reclamation District. I'm shocked, since it takes like 10,000 signatures and he gathered them in one week and threw it together so he'd be slated. Apparently, no one bothered to challenge him. We also have another "Republican", Harold "Noonie" Ward. He's a former gang leader and twice convicted felon (just got out of prison) who ran as a "Republican" because the Dem primary field was too crowded. His "endorsements" include Jesse Jackson Jr. and Bobby Rush (see, this why I don't mindlessly vote for every "R" on the ballot and research my candidates). I could just bullet vote for Carl, but since we're allowed up to three candidates, I think I will also vote for two Green Party nominees, Dave Ehrlich and 46 Nasrin R. Khalili, and hope they get future ballot access to embarrass the RATs. (one of the RAT nominees is Mayor Daley's nephew!) Surprisingly, the Greens ran well qualified candidates: http://greens4mwrd.org/?page_id=2
Finally, I haven't decided who I'm voting for in the judicial retention section of the ballot (since all judges are elected in Illinois, about 60 judges are up for retention this year in Crook County alone), aside from Robert Lopez Cepero , ballot number #223. If you remember from news stories, he's the judge who struck down Quinn's Internet tax as unconstitutional. Way to go, judge! I'll wait and see who the Chicago papers endorse for judge when it comes to all the other judicial names, and vote AGAINST whoever they endorse.
I said throughout the primary that they were BOTH RINOs and socially liberal, it's just that Linda McMahon wasn't AS far left as uber-RINO Chris Shays. I'm not surprised she'd come out in favor of repealing DOMA in the general election, since the mainstream media would gush over her "courage" for that.
Then again, I fell for Bob Dold's (not to be confused with Bob Dole) claims in 2010 that he was "middle of the road" on abortion and "against taxpayer funding of it". I gave the guy the benefit of the doubt since he was a first time candidate. I should have known better. We now know for certain that the phrase "socially moderate" is IL-10th District RINO speak for "I will slavishly do Planned Parenthood's bidding on every bill". I don't know what they put in the water up there, because in the other 434 congressional districts, heck probably even in liberal New England, voting like Barbara Boxer on abortion doesn't make you "socially moderate", it makes you to the left of Hillary.
I live in Lake Co. The chairman of the Constitution Party of Illinois is Tim Pearcy. Randy Stufflebeam is the vice-president of the national Constitution Party. Virgil Goode is running, as a write-in candidate, in Illinois. I hope that all anti-Obama voters, who live in IL, will vote for Romney.
I live in Rep. Walsh’s district, and, in the new map, I’ll live in Rep. Dold’s district. I agree that he’s too liberal. I hope that a conservative, who has political experience, will run, in the 10th Dist., in 2014. State Rep. Jo Ann Osmond or Lake Co. Sheriff Mark Curran would be a good candidate.
I just got mapped into Dold’s district from Schakowsky’s, the new line being just 4 houses down from me. I know Dold is a RINO, but I will be voting for him over that evil slug Brad Schneider. After 10 years behind enemy lines in Schakowsky’s gulag, I’d vote for anyone with an “R” after their name.
If Bob Dold promised that he was “pro-choice” on abortion but opposed taxpayer funding, then his voting record actually has come pretty close to what a “moderate” would claim were his promises. If you go here and click on “Votes,” you can see the 10 votes related to right-to-life issues (as selected by the National Right to Life Committee) cast by Dole since he got to Congress: http://nrlc.capwiz.com/bio/id/11608.
Dold cast 5 votes in which he voted with the NRLC, and all 5 were related to public financing of abortion: Dold has voted to repeal Obamacare on 2 occasions, voted to block funding for Obamacare another time, voted for the Protect Life Act that sought to prevent the use of public funds for abortion under Obamacare, and voted for the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act. No Democrat that could be elected in the IL-10 would have voted for any of these pro-life bills.
However, Dold voted against the NRLC the 2 times that he voted against cutting off federal funding for Planned Parenthood (Dold and a handful of other “moderate” Republicans voted against it because
“Planned Parenthood does other things too,” ignoring the fact that money is fungible and that PP gets most of its revenue from its abortion business), when he voted against a stronger conscience-protection clause in a bill to provide funding for training doctors in “teaching health centers” (”moderates” thought that the feds shouldn’t provide protection to doctors and staffers who are opposed to abortion but wish to work at hospitals that perform abortions), when he voted against the ban on “sex-discrimination” abortions (which was an abortion ban, not a funding bill), and when he voted against the bill to ban abortion in DC after 20 weeks of fertilization (also an abortion ban, not a funding bill).
Dold clearly is one of the 6 most pro-abortion Republicans in the House, along with Hanna of NY, Biggert of IL, Bass of NH, Bono of CA and Dent of PA. It should be noted, however, that Hanna, Bono and Dent represent GOP-leaning districts, where a pro-life Republican could win without any problem. Dold, Bass and now Biggert are in Democrat-leaning CDs in which it would be far more difficult for a social conservative to be elected. Dold, in fact, sits in the most heavily Democrat CD represented by a Republican in the House, and it became even more liberal for 2012.
Dold is a RINO, but he votes with us half the time, and he sits in a district that, as redrwawn for 2012, will not countenance a conservative or even a moderate-to-conservative: it gave President Bush a lower percentage in 2004 than any district that has been held by any House Republican since 2007, other than Cao’s fluke win in LA-02. Prior to the 2011 Democrat gerrymander, one could argue—and, indeed, I argued here on FR—that the IL-10 wasn’t so heavily Democrat that it couldn’t elect a moderate-to-conservative Republican. Had the IL-10 stayed the same, and Dold’s voting record been what it has been, I would have supported a moderate-to-conservative challenger in the GOP primary to replace Dold. (In fact, I had supported Arie Friedman in the 2010 primary, although when it became a horserace between Dold and Coulson I rooted for the less liberal Dold.) But given the districts drawn by the Democrats, the IL-10 will elect either Dold (who will vote with us half the time) or a Democrat who will vote with us maybe 5% of the time. I think that IL-10 conservatives should hold their noses and vote for Dold.
As for McMahon, did she say that she wanted to repeal all of DOMA, or only the portion of DOMA that provides that the federal government will not recognize any marriages that are not between one man and one woman (even if legal in the state in question)? The federal-non-recognition clause is the most controversial one, as it would mean that a federal employee in, say, Connecticut would get different treatment than a private or state employee. (Mind you, I would rather have the states go back to recognizing only real marriages instead of those sham same-sex unions, but apparently voters in CT have been brainwashed by the gay mafia and support civil unions or whatnot.) So I would not be shocked to hear that the RINOish McMahon would support repeal of the federal non-recognition clause in DOMA.
It would be outrageous, though, if McMahon were in favor of repealing all of DOMA, including the popular clause that protects states from having to recognize same-sex marriages from other states (basically, it is an insurance policy to ward against rogue judges that may want to use the Full Faith and Credit Clause to impose same-sex marriage on every state just because one state has it).
well I’d vote for Dold and will be voting for Linda. But no Linda signs on my lawn.
And I would not vote for BASS. I thinks yer analysis is correct.
Which again, differs from what he campaigned as. Being "middle of the road" on abortion is entirely different from favoring abortion on demand in any and all circumstances. I didn't expect him to be a pro-life Congressman, but if he did support common-sense restrictions that enjoy a strong majority of support in America -- like opposing late term abortion and supporting parental notification, he could legitimately claim to be "socially moderate" on abortion. He's not. He flat out misled conservatives to get their support and I'm not in favor of rewarding politicians who lie to me.
Dold, like Kirk and Porter before him, are pro-abortion fanatics who flat out lie and claim to have "thoughtful" and "centrist" positions on abortion when in fact they're out of touch with over 80% of Americans with the circumstances in which they favor abortion. Again, I don't know what they put in water in IL-10, but in NO other congressional district in America is such a record on abortion considered "moderate". I live in a 65% RAT district, and nobody has ever described my Congressman as "Bobby Rush, the social moderate with a thoughtful centrist position on abortion..."
>> Prior to the 2011 Democrat gerrymander, one could argue—and, indeed, I argued here on FR—that the IL-10 wasn’t so heavily Democrat that it couldn’t elect a moderate-to-conservative Republican. <<
Indeed, the "abortion-loving RINOs like Dold and Kirk are the best we can get in that district" propaganda spread by Kirk supporters was proven wrong repeatedly, like when the unabashedly pro-life and pro-gun Tony Peracia "won Kirk's district handily" when he ran for Cook County Board President in 2006. And Dan Rutherford, who also has a staunchly pro-life and pro-gun record in the IL Senate, was the highest vote getter on the ticket when he ran statewide in Illinois for State Treasurer in 2010. He also won Kirk's district easily.
>> In fact, I had supported Arie Friedman in the 2010 primary, although when it became a horserace between Dold and Coulson I rooted for the less liberal Dold.) But given the districts drawn by the Democrats, the IL-10 will elect either Dold (who will vote with us half the time <<
I supported Friedman in the 2010 primary as well. He at least took conservative positions on a handful of issues and while I didn't see him as a solid conservative, I figured he'd be a 70% conservative congressman and that would be better than a 50% conservative one. Friedman's running for state legislature now and I'm having reservations about him now as well. He's another guy who loves Mark Kirk and says he sees him a "role model", and Illinois Review recently caught him sending out flyers about how much he loves Planned Parenthood (Friedman previously claimed to have a hands off position on divisive social issues and ran purely on economic ones). The problem is the whole area up there is run by RINOs who think voting to the left of Hillary on abortion is "thoughtful and moderate". They're the ones "out of touch" with mainstream media, not the rest of the GOP.
IL-10 needs an enema after years of RINO rule. There's something seriously wrong when what passes for "Republican" up there to the left of many card-carrying Democrat pols we have in Crook County. I wish the RATs had merged the GOP areas of IL-8 and IL-10 and simply put Joe Walsh and Bob Dold in the same district, because I would have loved to see Walsh take out the trash in the primary.
Romney vs. Obama - have a Romney/Ryan sign on my front lawn Agree now is not the time to waste a vote on Goode.
Dold vs. Schneider - skip it. Both are deceptive liberals.
Bass vs. Kuster - skip it. The NH GOP needs to seriously get rid of this guy
McMahon vs. Murphy - hold my nose for her in the general. The McMahon vs. Shays primary was a "skip it" race though, both were RINOs of varying degrees.
What do you guys think of the water commissioner race in my county where there are 3 seats to be filled, and the candidates are 3 Chicago machine RATs (one of whom is Mayor Daley's nephew), 1 conservative Republican, 1 gang banger criminal running as a "Republican", and 3 Greens? Probably most conservatives are going to cast a single "bullet" vote for the lone real Republican, but I'm probably going to vote for him and two of the Greens to embarrass the RATs.
“I wish the RATs had merged the GOP areas of IL-8 and IL-10 and simply put Joe Walsh and Bob Dold in the same district, because I would have loved to see Walsh take out the trash in the primary.”
My preference would have been had they expanded Schakowsky’s CD to take in the heavily Dem areas from IL-10 (particularly just across the Lake County border) and leave two Republican-leaning districts where we could elect solid conservatives. But Republicans didn’t control redistricting in IL, so that was never going to happen.
“What do you guys think of the water commissioner race in my county where there are 3 seats to be filled, and the candidates are 3 Chicago machine RATs (one of whom is Mayor Daley’s nephew), 1 conservative Republican, 1 gang banger criminal running as a “Republican”, and 3 Greens? Probably most conservatives are going to cast a single “bullet” vote for the lone real Republican, but I’m probably going to vote for him and two of the Greens to embarrass the RATs.”
As for the Dold and Bass elections, I’d take the 50% guy over the 5% guy, and, if the RINOs win, support a more conservative (yet electable—it’s not about grabbing some guy off the street) challenger for the 2014 primary.
Shays is a NARAL pro-abort, much more so than Linda who supports the Blunt amendment, etc.
Dold: hard to see how somebody more conservative than him holding that seat. He’s a vote to repeal ObambiCare, allegedly.
A conservative could hold the Bass seat.
Just an aside, the "Deadbeat Dad" stuff was a liberal campaign smear against Walsh when he was in a child custody battle. He's since been cleared of all charges and his ex-wife actually apologized for the allegations, but of course the liberal media gave almost zero coverage to the "Walsh cleared" story so the Dems are hoping people still think the "deadbeat dad" BS was true.
What's shocking to me is the Dems can make Walsh and Dold's district much more RAT, but when they expand all the RAT districts to include vast portions of GOP turf, the district overall is still solid RAT. I mean they got Jesse Jackson Jr. all the way out in Kankakee county, and 2 out of 3 counties in his new district are staunchly AGAINST him and vote Republican, but he STILL wins by over 70% district wide. My district (Bobby Rush, IL-1) is now geographically 50% Republican, but population-wise it's still heavily RAT. The south side of Chicago loses more and more people but it still can still outvote anyone else.
I didn’t use the adjective “deadbeat” to describe Walsh because his ex-wife sued him for nonpayment of child support; I called him that because he had a long history of not paying his bills, both personal and for his campaign (if you don’t pay what you owe, you’re a deadbeat in my book). But that’s neither here nor there.
Regarding IL-01, is it really “50% Republican geographically”? There are very, very few GOP precincts in Chicago.
It should not shock you that adding 55%-GOP suburbs to 80%-Dem black-majority Cook precincts in JJJ’s CD yields a 70% Dem CD. Maybe 30% of the population of the CD lives in slightly GOP precincts, and a district in which 70% of voters vote 80% Dem while 30% of voters vote 45% Dem will vote 69.5% Dem. And, besides, there are a lot of blacks in Will County, particularly in Joliet (and not just in the prison).
Here is the new district lines after the 2011 remap. Most of IL-1 is now far outside Chicago City limits -- The suburb of Evergreen Park is at the city's edge. Towns like Frankfort, Mokena, Manhahattan, Elwood, Palos Park, Tinley Park, are all staunchly Republican. Unfortunately, they don't have very large populations. Ironically, Bobby Rush's opponent this time is Mayor Don Peloquin, who is a solid conservative Republican but Mayor of Blue Island, a heavily Democrat town that's about 1/3rd white, 1/3rd black, and 1/3rd hispanic.
Rush's district has been substantically suburban even before the remap, as the 2002 remap put him all the way out in Orland to the edge of Cook County-Will County border. You just never heard about it since Rush ignores 80% of the district and pretends we don't exist outside the city (even the black suburbs of his district get zero representation). Which is why I find it amusing when Kirk/Dold's cheerleaders would make excuses for their liberal records by saying "a congressman has to work his WHOLE district and represent ALL his constituents, you know, he can't just cater to his base". Certainly news to those of us in the south suburbs.
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