Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.
Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.
Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Many like me, when polled, still have the luxury of voting “other”. Come election day, there’s but one choice.
Vote out Obama.
>> Dems always poll better at weekends also in Rasmussen <<
Correct — strictly speaking — but it’s basically irrelevant to the discussion at hand, because Rasmussen always adjusts his results to eliminate the “weekend effect.”
(He also adjusts his numbers, by the way, to eliminate factors like the bias arising from the problem that eldery people are much more likely than young people to answer a landline phone.)
2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, IA OR NV = 272EV
The adjustments aren’t necessarily correct.
Ohio is the key.
Whoever wins it, wins the whole thing.
I’m a member of a minority demographic that is statistically worse off than blacks. I can’t speak for blacks, but I can speak from observations with my own demographic.
IMO, nothing will change their mindsets or votes except cold turkey withdrawal from government dependence. There is just too much pressure for the status quo otherwise, plus you always get more of what you subsidize. Stop subsidizing, and you’ll get less of what you subsidize (poverty, out-of-wedlock pregnancies, etc), almost like magic.
I know they think Obama had a bad night, and that he somehow was not as good as he normally is.
I don’t believe that. I think his looking down, his long pauses, his drawn out “aaaannds” and his clipped pauses mid—sentences are exactly who he has always been.
I believe the media is hoping for a huge showing by Joe Biden this week. Anything close to a draw with Ryan will be painted by the media as if it were Obama himself performing. I remember Joe Biden making up stats from thin air continually in his debate with Palin. He’s very very good at making stuff up and simply going on. (One was his statement that we’d spent more in a week/month in Iraq than we had in all of the Afghan war at the time....the war the dems considered the good war.)
Obama, on the other hand, will have to undergo a complete personality and style change to “be” different in Debate #2 with Romney. I believe they’ll continue to pound the “5 trillion tax cut” theme, although Romney has never said other than a revenue-neutral 20% cut for the middle class. That could be lower middle and middle middle and still be true, and since the lower middle is responsible for very little tax at all, it wouldn’t be hard to make it revenue neutral.
>> Rasmussen has to assume by the rules of polling science that the people who do answer his calls are still representative <<
No, he doesn’t assume they are totally representative, and as a result, he makes many “adjustments” to the raw numbers.
From the getgo, I said Romney had a point, about too many people being too dependent on the government, but he did not state it correctly and gave many misimpressions.
What we don’t know is what was not shown on the tape. I’ve seen posts indicating that it is edited, and doesn’t include the context of the lead in to the
47%.
Also, we shouldn’t forget this was a $50,000 a plate event.
I don’t think many of us would want those donors to feel we were targeting monies to people who rightly will support O regardless of what he says or does.
Is 49% Romney’s high water mark with Ras?
I don’t remember him ever getting to the magical 50%, but I could be wrong.
>> The adjustments aren’t necessarily correct. <<
Well, one can also say that they aren’t “necessarily” incorrect. So there!
I do feel like the establishment has limited my choices, ofcourse, as they always do. But like someone on here said, (Laz, I believe) all Romney really offers is an extension and I want that extension. (paraphrasing)
The stat that jumps out at me is the right direction vs. wrong direction. That's a huge gap, and in the voting booth, the people who find Obama like-able aren't going to pull the lever for him if they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is also why undecideds will break for Romney big time.
Gary Johnson? The dude came out in support of the Occupy movement. He supports the legalization of weed and gay marriage. He states Iran is no great threat to our national security and wants to cut our military in half. Off the rails on national defense and social issues.
Yes, odd for most, but this media goes by its own ever changing rules.
If Obama is playing rope a dope as the Left claims the dope he roped is himself.
Happy Rain wrote:
<<
MSM so far up Obama’s butt a right turn would break their necks.
>>
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LOL! Best line of the day I’ve heard so far!
I have three adult children and the youngest will be casting her first vote this year. None make enough to pay income taxes, yet they are conservative as you come.
One is in ministry.
One is a marine.
One is a wonderful young high school girl, completely devoted to her Lord and Savior.
All three support Romney.
He was basically taking taxes and monetary stuff in this interview and I agreed with everything he said. I really want the government so small, inconsequential and out of my life as if could ever be. Especially my out of money.
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