Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%

Rasmussen ^ | Oct. 6, 2012 | Rasmussen

[AFPhys]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.

[AFPhys]

That is very true. I am quite surprised that some of those organizations that took polls early last week, just before the debate, did not release a follow-up poll two days after the debate, just for comparison.

It does indeed beg the question as to whether any of them did such a poll and are not releasing it.

[AFPhys]

Actually, I suspect that even more people will be watching the second debate of these two. I do agree that Mitt answered a lot of the concerns of over 60Million folks, but they will be telling their friends who didn’t see it the first time.

I will be watching myself (and I hate those things) just to see how each of them fare, though I know my vote won’t change.

Then, if Obama is not slaughtered, I think that there will be just as many watching the third, though I don’t think there will be many minds changed by it. If he is slaughtered, the viewership for that will be only the ambulance chasers who love blood and gore, and if Zero does well then, it won’t have much effect anyway. If he does mediocre to poor, there will be a bandwagon effect for Mitt.

I think this year all the debates are going to matter a lot.

[AFPhys]

Here in Central NYState, the Green Party candidate is now making a big push for votes. Sounding as radical as the Libertarians, but with a super-anti-Democrat party as well as anti-GOP. They are the 99% slogan chanters, and marchers. Heck, I was in Ithaca today, and even saw an anti-war protest! They quite likely vote for the “green”.

I don’t know how many outside the liberal universities and such will vote for the Greens, but there are quite a few of those dolts who could care less that Obama will get a vote less even if their Greenie has not been heard of by 98%.

[AFPhys]

“It really is an unspeakable tragedy - to see what the so-called “caring” liberals have done to our black people”

-—<>-—<>-—<>-—<>-—<>-—

I love the way you stated this post. I DO think there is getting to be that “critical mass” of Black speakers now on New Media - not only those you mentioned, but callers to the talk shows, etc., and people like Jackson have lost some of their power.

[AFPhys]

I don’t think that there is even a good guess as to the electoral vote right now. We really need at least 3 marginally “reliable” polls from each state to get any read at all.

The only poll worth looking at right now is the national.

Specifically, I think the most accurate way to get a handle on the electoral college would be to take the state-by-state polls, and in each state adjust by as straight percentage change in the national polls since the debate. Not great way, but better than anything else out there right now. By the end of the coming week, that method will probably not be needed, though.

[AFPhys]

Here in Central NYState, there are many of the Dems who are not enchanted with Obama who will be voting for the silly “Green” candidate - guaranteed.

I am part of the 91% who hang up as soon as I hear “pollster” or detect that from the questioning. When I DO decide to take my time to answer, I NEVER give honest answers to approximately half the questions, both the demographic questions and the “money” questions. No sense answering them all opposite - that won’t screw up the pollster or their cross tabs.

Much better to say, “I’m black... I’m making 200,000+ ... the economy stinks ... I’m voting for the green party... I consider myself moderate or conservative... most important issue is the deficit ... but registered Democrat... I agree with the Afghan war... country is going in the right direction”. I have been doing this for at least 15 years.

I imagine when I get done, if they wanted to spend a lot of time correlating unlikely honest responses, they could figure out a way to toss me out, but it costs a heckova lot of programmer power to figure out how to do that, and they will not. And yet, that type of responder is NOT part of their “Margin of Error” calculations. They assume all responders are honest, and their “MOE” is based on simple statistics of sampling errors, not liars.

I hate polls. Always have. Always will. Really want to screw them up if I am going to take up my time with them.

[Arthurio]

The townhall format will be much easier on Obama since there will be multitudes of questions from the idiot undecideds... Lehrer more or less let the debate flow Lincoln Douglas style... Not going to happen in a town hall

[AFPhys]

Stickynote on gas pump:

                   Jan'09    Now

Gas                $1.85    $5.50
Foodstamps         32Mil.   47Mil.
Family Income     $55,198  $50,678  

Four more years?  Really???

[arrogantsob]

There are some weird numbers in there.
1- Blacks are more concerned about National Security than Whites? Not likely.

2- The economy is of more concern with “other” (Independents) than either R or Ds.

3- 15% of Blacks are voting for Romney. Lord Almighty let it be so.

[Bigjimslade]

His latest party ID breakdown for Sept. was R+2.6 and there were 29% Indies. Not sure why he weighted D’s so high in this poll unless they really started to surge in the end of September ?