Convential wisdom is that Reagan's debate performance convinced votgers that it wss "safe" to vote for him...how come nobody ever asks is maybe ALL the polls were way off..
I think your point is spot on accurate and IMHO this current election climate has the same feel as the 80 election. I remember we (family, friends, etc) kept hearing how Carter was leading while thinking how in Hell can this country re-elect him after such a dismal first term??? My gut feeling is that those polls were way off just as these ones today are.
There are a lot more polls now. It isn't just one (Gallup) that would have to be wrong - its about 7-8 major pollsters (including Rasmussen) all indicating the same thing. Obama is developing a small(ish) but significant lead which began firming up a week or so after the Dem convention. The country appears to want Obama again. Romney has the debates to turn things around. We just have to pray that Mitt has it in him to actually get tough and draw clear lines between himself and Hussein. Increasingly, I have my doubts.