I think your point is spot on accurate and IMHO this current election climate has the same feel as the 80 election. I remember we (family, friends, etc) kept hearing how Carter was leading while thinking how in Hell can this country re-elect him after such a dismal first term??? My gut feeling is that those polls were way off just as these ones today are.
I completely agree with the theory but I have ONE Eeyore aside. This is a VERY different country than the one we knew and loved in 1980. The electorate is not the same.
Still- people I know who were Obama voters are now either plugging nose for Romney or sitting it out.