There are a lot more polls now. It isn't just one (Gallup) that would have to be wrong - its about 7-8 major pollsters (including Rasmussen) all indicating the same thing. Obama is developing a small(ish) but significant lead which began firming up a week or so after the Dem convention. The country appears to want Obama again. Romney has the debates to turn things around. We just have to pray that Mitt has it in him to actually get tough and draw clear lines between himself and Hussein. Increasingly, I have my doubts.
I think your post was realistic and honest. I would add that some of the internals just don’t add up to an Obama bump.
That is what I am hanging my hat on.
Now I truly believe (no matter how biased the samples are) that the trend is with Obama. There is no way you can discount every single poll. Some are more biased than others. But all show a trend towards Obama.
But! There are still five weeks to go (a lifetime in this age of a news cycle being about 4 hours).
Romney does have a lot of money remaining. You will see more ‘contrast’ ads coming up (i.e. Obama has been a train wreck). And we have 4 debates to go. Obama, sans teleprompter, is known to be a disaster.
I remain very hopeful. We are down a field goal (w/out question) but there is plenty of time remaining for a game-winning TD drive.