Posted on 09/30/2012 7:31:31 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.
In the 11 swing states, President Obama earns 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the widest gap in the race since September 6 when Romney held a four-point lead as his bounce from the Republican National Convention peaked. Obama has now been ahead for nine of the last 11 days. For two days late last week, the candidates were tied.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
When “leaners” are factored in, the president leads Romney 50% to 45%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
After a week of reporting that Romney is down in the polls, they become a self fulfilling prophecy (likely the intent).
Many mindless wonders want to vote for who is believed is going to win. Think of it as some sort of perverted self affirmation. “I voted for the winner. See how smart I am. I must be smart right? The majority voted like I did.” Call it the bandwagon effect.
People are mindless sheep, now I understand how Hitler got power in Germany.
To be completely honest, I’ve never trusted that mf’er Rasmussen. Just go back and look at some of my posts over the past couple of years.
I distinctly remember early on in Obama’s term (~2009) when Ras first picked up Obama’s collapsing approval numbers and the White House called him out publicly. They may have even ‘invited’ him to the WH. A very short time later, Rasmussen’s numbers for Obama suddenly improved. I will NEVER forget that and several other freepers also commented on it.
I agree this is not good news.
I think Rasmussen is legit and I won’t claim bias, etc. The D+3 sample is fair (although I think it’ll be closer to R+1).
But here is the bottomline: There is no way that America is going to re-elect a president with gas at $4, unemployment at 8% (44 straight months), and a Libya scandal ready to explode. Nope! I don’t buy it. Just wait til the debates, and Romney’s upcoming ad blitz. Plus look at Dem GOTV efforts - it’s way down.
Furthermore, Rasmussen’s swing states include Michigan, PA, and Wisconsin. These are traditionally blue states, never won by Bush. And if you look at these polls isolated, you will see that Obama is pulling away (even in Rasmussen). This greatly skews the aggregate of the “swing states” poll.
We need to fccus on FL OH VA and CO. Period.
Stay Strong!
You’ve both got it right. Romney’s commercials are as tepid as he is. Who even cares if he runs more of them?
This is the problem with running a campaign where all your consultants are from DC or MA—blue territory through and through.
I repeat it one more time:
If you go with RAS figures for leaners and assume DEM +3 eg : GOP 33 DEM 36 IND 31 you get:
Romney 47%, Obama 47.5%
To get Romney 45% and Obama 50% given the figures for party affiliation and voting intentions for leaners you get a sample like the following:
GOP 29%, DEM 38%, IND 34%
You tell me how likely that is?!
I said before the primaries, “I don’t know how we beat this guy”. The reason being the media. There is no way to buy enough advertising to offset the 24hr news cycle.
You will see more contrast ads in the coming weeks. The softer ads are meant to change minds of the ‘08 Obama voter.
The final onslaught will be hard hitting contrast ads. Believe me. I am friends with a Romney guy (not an insider but someone who has been associated with his aides since his 94 run). He promises me that the ads will get much tougher. Believe me. I email him nightly complaining about the vanilla ads. Partisans want blood. Apolitical types don’t. Just the way it works.
I'm glad to live in a non-swing state - AZ....:^)
Do you think that viewers might just get “overdosed” with these ads and they lose all effectiveness?
So given that RAS includes Michigan, PA, and Wisconsin in his swing states would you consider a DEM +9 sample to be reasonable?
Of course the fact that Mitt leads the middle class vote by 14 pts has no bearing on anything.
You nailed it.
I studied propaganda in college.
It’s all due to belief and ultimate behavior. Think of someone who believes they will fail a test. If their friend keeps telling them they will fail. They will ultimately fail, more often than not (and then say “You called it.”).
Same thing here. Initially 43% were on the Obama train. Then every day (drip drip drip) they log onto Yahoo and see Obama love-fest. They turn on The View and it’s all Obama. Etc Etc.
They then say, “Dammit, I’m in too!”
In other words, a prophecy declared as truth when it is actually false - may influence people so that their reactions ultimately fulfill the once-false prophecy.
How do they account for people registered D who aren’t going to vote for zero?
There must be a lot who didn’t bother changing their registration.
Other than that - if we get 4 more of zero I’ll feel like a outsider in the country I was born in.
But given RAS originalparty party affiliation weighting (DEM +3) absolutely nothing has changed!!!!
This is what people aren't getting. The America they thought they knew has already changed underneath them. Last presidential cycle was the time we probably crossed the point of no return. Once Obamacare fully kicks in (on top of all the other social welfare/transfer payment programs), far too many people will rely on government and it will be near impossible to elect an actual conservative. We are now Europe. There are just no longer enough white people switching to the GOP to offset all the minorities, victim groups, leechers, etc, that will always vote for the party for more/bigger government.
If we can't somehow push Romney across the finish line and get him elected, all is truly lost. Unfortunately, even Rasmussen is showing him losing ground steadily. The debates are likely the last opportunity.
There are a lot more polls now. It isn't just one (Gallup) that would have to be wrong - its about 7-8 major pollsters (including Rasmussen) all indicating the same thing. Obama is developing a small(ish) but significant lead which began firming up a week or so after the Dem convention. The country appears to want Obama again. Romney has the debates to turn things around. We just have to pray that Mitt has it in him to actually get tough and draw clear lines between himself and Hussein. Increasingly, I have my doubts.
I know that’s the intention and I believe you that that’s what the Romney guy is saying and thinking. IMO that’s too late even if they miraculously transform themselves.
Voters want to articulate their position by the time of the debates and it’s especially hard for them to switch after they do so.
Also, Romney just comes out with more ‘Obama’s a nice guy with a nice family who didn’t raise taxes on you and genuinely cares about the middle class crap all the time.
On the one hand, voters are idiots, but on the other hand they’re not stupid.
Midterms 2010: Numerous polls, including Rasmussen, show Democrats gaining
OCTOBER 4, 2010
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