[ScaniaBoy]

I repeat it one more time:

If you go with RAS figures for leaners and assume DEM +3 eg : GOP 33 DEM 36 IND 31 you get:

Romney 47%, Obama 47.5%

To get Romney 45% and Obama 50% given the figures for party affiliation and voting intentions for leaners you get a sample like the following:

GOP 29%, DEM 38%, IND 34%

You tell me how likely that is?!

[Conservative12345]

Excellent work ScaniaBoy... I did the same calculation of the "non leaners" and it is % D =40, % R =31%, % I = 29% to obtain Obama 48%, Romney 44%... So it is D +9 and your calculation for the "leaners" sample also shows a D +9 sample...

This scenario is simply impossible...

I am happy to see another numbers cruncher like me :)...