Tracking Ohio’s absentee ballot requests - from 3 of Ohio's largest counties (and bluest)

http://moelane.com/2012/09/27/tracking-ohios-absentee-ballot-requests/ ^

[profit_guy]

Executive summary: the process is ongoing, and what’s being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots. So it’s not telling us who’s ahead in Ohio; it’s merely telling us what we know of which party’s members are asking for ballots. In other words, it’s a possible measure of voter enthusiasm in Ohio. So…

[plushaye]

A lot of readers lurk at FR, from conservatives to DU/DKos types. Jay Cost might be a FReeper. Andrew Breitbart was one. You never know who is reading.

The more this OH absentee data gets out, the better, as the media pressures the Romney campaign to basically give up on Ohio and all the swing states. Give up when they very well could be leading? Ludicrous, isn’t it?

[LS]

It’s county by county. Montgomery Co. Is excellent in calling and walking, setting national records. On the other hand, we don’t have a strong chairman or local Romney chairman. But light years better than McCain and as. Best I. Can tell better than Obama’s.

[GreenAccord]

Thanks for checking in, LS.

[profit_guy]

Romney needs to hammer his 5-point plan to the voters hard at the debates. And hammer Obama on the Middle East and how it effects our national security (without sounding like he wants to go to war). But after that I agree, it is IMPERATIVE to get the base out, because I truly believe the ‘Undecideds’ are a very low number this time around. Fortunately most of that is volunteer work, and shouldn’t cost too much?

[Bluestocking]

This is wonderful news.

And it’s even better when you consider that very few Republicans would be likely to request absentee ballots in order to propel Obama into another four-year term, while many Democrats who were fooled into thinking Obama was the Messiah in 2008 may well be angry enough to vote for Romney this year.

[Kolath]

Theories on my part (IMO)

1. GOP enthusiasm.
2. Grass roots since 2008
2a Freedom Works GOTV
2b AFP GOTV
3c Citizens United GOTV and group organizing
3d True the Vote groups
3f Tea Parties of all shapes and sizes
4. Democrat overconfidence
5. 2008 Obama Magic is fading and it’s turning out to be traditional PRECINCT GOTV contest

Who is the SOS in Ohio (R or D)?

Let me tell you of an incident I had in Missouri a few months ago at a political rally (Rally for Common Sense near Jefferson City). I was having a chat with the local/Regional Tea Party Patriots leader which was most informative.

At their booth, they were signing up local volunteers for the defense of Gov. Walker (recall). The TPP would provide airfare, room, board and training for precinct organizing and GOTV. LOTS of people were signing up! According to the TPP person, there were signing up people as far away as California, Florida and Texas....and that’s not counting the out-of-state phone banks!

I can only imagine the scope which these groups (and countless others) are doing behind the scenes to take back our country. If they can do this for a recall election against the liberal bastion of Wisconsin (where the gates of Mordor were in full force) I shudder what they’re doing in the general election.

WE ARE NOT ALONE FREEPERS!!!!

[Ravi]

Ha! Should have known. Jay Cost. Excellent numbers guy. I’ll take him over that 538 guy any day. He had great insight in 2004. We are the resistance!

[profit_guy]

LS, this is concerning, if true:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/mitt-romney-ohio-ground-game_n_1921455.html?1348799034

[plushaye]

OK, this from the HuffPo so it is terribly biased off the bat (and intended to be that way). The MSM is out to dispirit and lie and distort and HuffPo is one of the worst.

In 2010 I don’t think there was much ground game but Republicans/Tea Party people would have walked over broken glass to vote. It probably won’t be at the 2010 level this year (or could be?) but the numbers are looking like it will be far from 2008 either..for the Democrats. My gut feel is it’s going to be another strange wave election but the results will be like 2010 for us...

[zt1053]

How do we know if this info is really accurate?

[Cinnamontea]

If you can avoid voting absentee, do. You're asking to have your vote stolen if you mail it in. I'll never forget reading in 2000 about a huge number of absentee ballots from largely Republican areas of Miami being found in trash dumpsters--presumably tossed there by postal workers. Come on, folks, make the extra effort to go to the polling place.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll Ping

[lapsus calami]

 

 

2008 Obama Magic is fading

 

Good list, but the past tense faded would have been better - maybe even 'defunct'.

 

Back when he was all the rage, I remember seeing Obabbles fanboy crap posted all over Facebook & Myspace pages belonging to suburban soccer moms. They couldn't get enough of him. By the spring of 2010 all that was extinct, not to be seen again. The realization began early that perhaps he wasn't all what he was cracked up to be. All this nonsense presently going on overseas and his (non)response to it has really gotten people torqued off. We've had our property overrun, trashed, our people killed and he shrugs his shoulders; oopsie, "bump in the road". No fire-and-brimstone speeches or remarks standing up on our behalf, no summoning of foreign ambassadors to tell them to get their s%*& straight in regards to us or else it will get straightened out for them - just inconsequential "can't we all get along" sophomoric pablum. Americans aren't used to being attacked, threatened or taunted in such a reckless manner, at this current level of intensity, made even more disconcerting by the fact that the people who are supposed to be handling this sort of thing are more interested in and worried about their own futures and political standing than doing their jobs. Rubbing a lot of citizenry the wrong way, it is.

 

 

[hoosiermama]

You always have lurkers. Can only tell how things are going by talking to folks at local shops, barbers, beauty, bars etc.
For example: My neighbors are not political. This go around they have made sure all family, children and spouses are registered to vote. (8 total) They are voting AGAINST Obama. Papa says the kids can’t use his shooting range unless they follow his advice on this one. lol
He’s Union. Since IN has the right to work law, many seem to be telling union bosses to “shove it” they’ll vote for whomever they please. They can now take their money out of the union PAC.

[LS]

I don't see why. In Montgomery County, which we will Los but we can't lose too badly, there are three layers at work---the Romney offices (we have two in Dayton alone)---and the county organization, but also the Tea Party/Liberty Groups. They overlap. All do calling, walking. Here, according to one county captain, they had their precinct captains organizational meetings two weeks ago. But these were all organized through the Tea Parties over the summer.

I can only speak for Montgomery, but this captain, who works the downtown, mostly black areas of Dayton thinks it's the DEMS who are disorganized. She said the county (and therefore Romney) organization is superbly organized with detailed readouts on every one of their voters. An absentee voter is WALKED 24 hours after they get a slate card!

Meanwhile the Romney HQ is setting records for calls---second highest in the nation! There have already been more calls and walks than in 2008.

The captain also said that of all the Dems she has called, many have moved, disconnected their phones, or are otherwise gone. She concluded the Dems would have a devil of a time getting out the vote.

There are few bumper stickers or yard signs, anywhere for Romney or Zero. I think this reflects two things. First, at least on Romney's part, a deliberate unconventional campaign emphasizing the Internet and ads---lots of ads. I get:

1) an e-mail from R EVERY DAY

2) a letter or two every week (for at least a month).

The second reason I think Romney in particular is downplaying signs and stickers is that he knows MANY will be afraid to very publicly signal their support. However, we have VERY good proxies in state and local Rep candidates. And you can drive down streets that in 08 were lined with Obama signs and see "Jim Butler" (a state senate rep) on one house after another--- or other GOP candidates. Do you think they will split their tickets? Not many. So to me a Jim Butler sign is a stealth Romney sign.

Finally, the proof is in the pudding. SO FAR, forgetting the polls, the REAL "polling" is taking place in the absentee voting in which Romney appears to be killing it---unless a whole bunch of Rs are voting for Obama. We have a good thread on that. The Rs are hugely outperforming 2008 levels while the Ds are hugely underperforming 2008. So much for +9 D polling!

I can be totally wrong about the numbers, but if they hold up, you have to conclude that, in OH at least, Romney is running a good campaign,

[old and tired]

The second reason I think Romney in particular is downplaying signs and stickers is that he knows MANY will be afraid to very publicly signal their support. However, we have VERY good proxies in state and local Rep candidates. And you can drive down streets that in 08 were lined with Obama signs and see "Jim Butler" (a state senate rep) on one house after another--- or other GOP candidates. Do you think they will split their tickets? Not many. So to me a Jim Butler sign is a stealth Romney sign.

I keep hearing this and I'm just not buying it. Many, if not most, GOP candidates are far more offensive to libs than Romney. I know several people voting Romney at the top of the ticket and then pulling the rest of the levers for Dems.

I think it's that while anti-Obama sentiment is very strong, Romney support is very thin. People aren't putting pro-Romney signs in their yards because they don't want to be in a position to defend him when he's elected. I do think he'll be elected. I agree with you that most conservatives (including myself) will not be splitting the ticket. Anybody but Obama syndrome is widespread.

[trebb]

I think the deadline is Nov. 1........either way the Dems are at 61% of 2008, while the GOP is at 101% of 2008 - so far...

Until they find a tractor-trailer filled with "previously misplaced" Dim votes. Then the MSM can cry out about how the Dim people in charge scared them (vs. going after the fraud) and they should have their hands slapped for making folks think Obama might have actually lost.

[mo]

Problem with early balloting numbers like this is that it lets the Dems know EXACTLY how many ballots they need to manufacture. And in Ohio, we can be sure they’re already hard at it.

[LS]

Could be. All I know is that there are far more Mike Turner (congressman), Jim Butler (state rep) and judge yard signs than Romney. But almost NO Obama signs either.

[LS]

The fact that we now know this spreadsheet came from Jay is incredibly reassuring, and it tells me that we are onto something or he wouldn’t waste his time. Whew.