[LS]

I don't see why. In Montgomery County, which we will Los but we can't lose too badly, there are three layers at work---the Romney offices (we have two in Dayton alone)---and the county organization, but also the Tea Party/Liberty Groups. They overlap. All do calling, walking. Here, according to one county captain, they had their precinct captains organizational meetings two weeks ago. But these were all organized through the Tea Parties over the summer.

I can only speak for Montgomery, but this captain, who works the downtown, mostly black areas of Dayton thinks it's the DEMS who are disorganized. She said the county (and therefore Romney) organization is superbly organized with detailed readouts on every one of their voters. An absentee voter is WALKED 24 hours after they get a slate card!

Meanwhile the Romney HQ is setting records for calls---second highest in the nation! There have already been more calls and walks than in 2008.

The captain also said that of all the Dems she has called, many have moved, disconnected their phones, or are otherwise gone. She concluded the Dems would have a devil of a time getting out the vote.

There are few bumper stickers or yard signs, anywhere for Romney or Zero. I think this reflects two things. First, at least on Romney's part, a deliberate unconventional campaign emphasizing the Internet and ads---lots of ads. I get:

1) an e-mail from R EVERY DAY

2) a letter or two every week (for at least a month).

The second reason I think Romney in particular is downplaying signs and stickers is that he knows MANY will be afraid to very publicly signal their support. However, we have VERY good proxies in state and local Rep candidates. And you can drive down streets that in 08 were lined with Obama signs and see "Jim Butler" (a state senate rep) on one house after another--- or other GOP candidates. Do you think they will split their tickets? Not many. So to me a Jim Butler sign is a stealth Romney sign.

Finally, the proof is in the pudding. SO FAR, forgetting the polls, the REAL "polling" is taking place in the absentee voting in which Romney appears to be killing it---unless a whole bunch of Rs are voting for Obama. We have a good thread on that. The Rs are hugely outperforming 2008 levels while the Ds are hugely underperforming 2008. So much for +9 D polling!

I can be totally wrong about the numbers, but if they hold up, you have to conclude that, in OH at least, Romney is running a good campaign,

[old and tired]

The second reason I think Romney in particular is downplaying signs and stickers is that he knows MANY will be afraid to very publicly signal their support. However, we have VERY good proxies in state and local Rep candidates. And you can drive down streets that in 08 were lined with Obama signs and see "Jim Butler" (a state senate rep) on one house after another--- or other GOP candidates. Do you think they will split their tickets? Not many. So to me a Jim Butler sign is a stealth Romney sign.

I keep hearing this and I'm just not buying it. Many, if not most, GOP candidates are far more offensive to libs than Romney. I know several people voting Romney at the top of the ticket and then pulling the rest of the levers for Dems.

I think it's that while anti-Obama sentiment is very strong, Romney support is very thin. People aren't putting pro-Romney signs in their yards because they don't want to be in a position to defend him when he's elected. I do think he'll be elected. I agree with you that most conservatives (including myself) will not be splitting the ticket. Anybody but Obama syndrome is widespread.