They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August
That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year. So why the heck are they sampling a D+5 in their poll? Makes no sense at all....
Wouldn’t it be a better poll if they used the same percentage for both parties. At least if one side is not polling to their liking. With this lopsided percentages, it does not do any good for either side. Very weird.
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I've made 1600 phone calls from home to NH in the last six days using the system set up by the campaign. Even 100 calls will make a difference. Who will join me?
Have to admit, 0 up 5 in a D+5 survey is a little nerve-racking. Usually, he’s up 3 in a D+12 survey.
All of the internals are RV — worthless.
When the Bancroft family owned the Wall Street Journal, it was a publication without peer in terms of journalistic integrity. The sale to NewsCorp started its slow slide to mediocrity, which has accelerated in recent months. If this poll is as inaccurate as I suspect it is and Romney wins the election handily—as I expect—I will conclude my 27 years of paid subscription to the WSJ. There are plenty of others like me.
Let’s see. The poll has a D+5 advantage.
Meanwhile, in Realville, the GOP has a 4.3% advantage nationally.
Further, while this poll has the GOP at about their real national level (37%), nationally, the Dems are only at 33%, not 42%. Further, Indies are WAY undersampled in this one (16% versus the REAL 29% that they have).
So, to adjust the poll, drop the Dems by 9% immediately, and then add 7% to Romney and 5% to Obama, to reflect the way the extra 13% Indies would breakdown, figuring in that a 5-7% chunk of Indies (the remaining 1%) are Libertarians/Greens/Constitution Party/etc. whom neither candidate will get.
Result: Romney 52%, Obama 46%, Other 2%
LS - this seem reasonable?
I wonder if some of those who are thinking the country is headed in the right direction think that way because they believe the Republicans are going to take back the White House, and the Senate. ;o)
Not only oversampled on Dems, undersampled on Indies. And every poll, even the ones with Romney behind, shows him winning Indies by a two-digit margin.
Poll performed in what Metro area?