Posted on 09/18/2012 6:15:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The sample: 42D/37R/16I, or D+5. That’s not bad for an outfit that's had some truly dreadful samples so far this year, but it's still a few points bluer than election day is likely to be. The poll was conducted from September 12 to 16, too, which means it's missed the last few days of Obama's disappearing bounce. No telling what'll happen once the "47 percent" comments are priced in, but these numbers aren't remotely as bad as you'd expect from all the media shrieking over Romney's Libya comments last week. In fact, it's O who's taken a hit on foreign policy: He's down 12 points, to just 41 percent, on that question among independents since last month’s poll.
So what’s keeping him afloat? The, er … economy:
According to the survey, 39 percent of registered voters say the country is on the right track, versus 55 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.
That right-track number is a 7-point increase from August, and it’s the highest percentage on this question since Sept. 2009.
Forty-two percent of voters also believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months, which is a 6-point jump from August, and a 15-point rise from July.
What’s more, 47 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy – up 3 points from last month. Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50 percent for the first time since March.
He’s now tied with Romney on the economy at 43. Note the trendline here too:
I have no idea how to explain that surge in optimism except to treat it as a gift to O from Bill Clinton, whose speech in defense of Dem-onomics is probably the single biggest thing driving Obama’s convention bounce. As we know from Gallup, though, the bounce is already fading, so unless we get a surprisingly rosy jobs report next month, expect this number to deflate by the time of the next (and final) WSJ/NBC poll. Exit quotation from the WSJ write-up: “At the same time, Mr. Romney leads the president by 3 percentage points among voters who rate themselves highly interested in the race, an advantage that could make a difference in who casts ballots on Election Day.”
Update: Almost forgot: A few readers e-mailed about this WaPo poll of Virginia today showing Obama up by eight(!) among likely voters — based on a sample of D+9. In 2008 on election day, it was only D+6; Obama ended up winning the state by six points. He’s ahead there right now, but most other recent polls have him up five points, not eight.
My brain’s in a blender. Can’t do any more polls.
Works for me. But I think Romney will get a little bit more than that. Don't know why; just have a feeling.
Yes, isn't the independent ratio grossly miscalculated? Using a realistic independent percentage would probably benefit Romney greatly.
If this is the best the Marxists can muster, in a blatant, transparent effort to prop up this failed President, then Romney should crush 0bama in November, barring some devastating downturn.
It seems to me that, almost invariably, whenever these polls are adjusted to reflect eminently realistic weightings of both Republicans and Independents, the numbers are devastating for 0bama.
Am I missing something, or shouldn't conservatives be shouting this obvious fact from the mountaintops, whenever they appear on lamestream media TV?
Why isn't anyone discussing these ridiculously unrealistic weightings? It seems that the inescapable conclusion, upon any semblance of thoughtful analysis, is that 0bama is being desperately propped up by a fully compliant and overtly biased media.
This bias has gone beyond anything we have ever seen, and may end up being the big story of this election.
Perhaps, as we have seen before, these snakes will adjust things to be more realistic as the election draws nearer, in order to maintain a veneer of credibility.
Those CYA adjustments will not be good news for 0bama.
Presuming that the lamestream media's massive propaganda campaign for 0bama is effectively exposed and repudiated, I think he's toast, without some kind of satanic miracle happening...
just have a feeling.
Singing “Hooked on a feeling”
Gallup 1.23% Party ID for Sept Ras isn’t out yet.
Poll performed in what Metro area?
Excellent graph. Source? I would like to read the commentary with it.
RE: Excellent graph. Source? I would like to read the commentary with it.
______________________________
Read the entire analysis here:
RE: Singing “Hooked on a feeling”
Chaka chaka uga uga... :)
2004 Sept NBC Wall Street Journal poll
49 Bush/46 Kerry Dem 40/ Rep 39/Ind 14 /other 4/ not sure 3
2012 Sept NBC Wall Street Journal poll
50 Obama/45 Romney Dem 42/Rep 37/ Ind 16/ other 2/ not sure 3
Double Sham Wow
1. Registered Voters vs. Likely Voters
2. Oversampling of Democrats
Double Sham wow
fact is, the polls may be skewed, but this doenst mean O is behind.
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