NH Leans Obama now? What happened to “Live Free or Die”?
That's amazing.
By noted super-ultra-Journ0list-liberal... errrrrr... ummmmmmmmmmm... Erick Erickson, of RedState.
This is too cautious. I don’t believe MO is a tossup and NC is only “leaning Romney”.
If we don’t snag Ohio, we’ll need to run the table.
But that is very do-able.
Also, Nevada and New Hampshire are still in play. New Mexico may be in play....but probably leans zero as of now.
The crazy thing with Ohio is that early voting will begin very soon. So we had better have a GOTV effort there. Cuz, the dead will vote often.
RINO Romeny, the guy who lost to the guy who lost to obama/soetoro chances dwindling ?
Gee, wonder why.
Actually, I don’t think this shows too much. I think it shows a close election without revealing much else.
Look, the real problem is not the 50% who pay little or no taxes, or those on the dole. The real probem is the corrupt progaganda MSM. We are like a frog in a stove pot filled with water. The water is getting hotter and we can see it all around us and yet the corrupt MSM keeps telling everyone that the water’s fine. No problem. If Obama is reelected we will surely all boil — but the MSM doesn’t care.
Those 12 states are the entire election. Unfortunately, Romney is going to need to win at least 8 of them to win. Be on your knees, folks. By prayer, we can succeed. We can’t expect much help from anywhere else.
Remember 2000? Either the Democrats screwed up Palm Beach County or (my view) God intervened to screw up the Democrats plans to stuff the ballot in Palm Beach County and gave those votes to Buchanan.
I realize many of you don’t believe Romney is a Christian but that doesn’t mean God won’t have a hand in this election. Woe to us all if He believes that America needs to be destroyed by re-electing Obama.
The fact is that these people really aren't undecided. They've had 4 years of life with obama. They know whether or not they want 4 more and my guess is they don't.
I would LOVE to see Mitt’s internal polls on Ohio with cheating factored in.
I think we can win Ohio. If we do, it’ll be the end of tyranny....
I think we have Florida and Wisconsin. Virginia is ours....easy.
I don’t quite understand how Rasmussen reaches these conclusions. He shows Romney up by a point or 2 in popular vote. I realize that popular vote is not what elects a president; but we generally find that popular vote favors the ‘rats because they get the huge vote totals in the metropolitan cities. If Romney is ahead in the popular vite, where are the votes coming form? He’s not carrying New York, Illinois or California; so why does he lead in the popular and trail in the electoral?
I don’t think this is going to be one of those classic red state/blue state elections with only a small handfull of swing states deciding the elction. Under normal conditions that is usuaaly the case.
But with REAL unemployment close to 15%, astronomical national debt above $16 trillion, 46 million on Food Stamps, one out of six living in poverty, gasoline going through the roof, we have the potential for a MASSIVE landslide election. I’ve even some polls which show the election tighrening in Illinois, a state bankrupted by the Democrat Party.
Rasmussen is wrong about Missouri. Missouri is NOT a toss-up! There is no way on God’s green earth that Obama is going to carry Missouri!
I’m here in Missouri, down in the trenches, day in, day out. Obama is TOAST!!!
Just lettin’ ya’ all know
Cheers!
This is a daunting task. Even though I think we can safely move Missouri into the leaning Romney column, Romney must still secure 54 votes to get to the magic number. The key state is and always has been Ohio but Ohio is simply too close to call. Therefore it a grave risk. Similarly Florida is indispensable but it has stubbornly seesawed back and forth so it constitutes a real risk. The loss of either Florida or Ohio are potentially fatal. Likewise, Virginia has behaved the same way.
There is good news in Wisconsin which I think will ultimately vote for Romney considering its recent history and the favorite son status of Paul Ryan. It represents a crossover state which is not been traditionally Republican. It potentially could compensate for the loss of one of the other swing states which Romney must have.
Romney absolutely positively must secure Florida and Virginia. The loss of any one of these states puts Romney in a very tenuous position. Therefore, I believe he should open the field by invading the "leads Obama states," Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, which total 46 electoral votes. This is not just a geographical excursion but a real possibility of breaking the election wide open or, failing that, it presents the possibility that a state like Pennsylvania with its 20 electoral votes could compensate for the loss of Virginia or Florida (29).
Just because the race up until now has remained relatively static does not mean that the race cannot break. It certainly is more more likely to break, if it is to break, in Romney's favor rather than in Obama's favor. Romney has the money to run a strong air war in Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania and he should do so. He has a good argument to make in Pennsylvania if he emphasizes Obama's disastrous energy policy.
In Nevada he can hit unemployment hard and hit Obama on his remarks about not spending money in Las Vegas but he must finesse the Hispanic vote. Michigan provides an opportunity for Romney as a kind of favorite son but it also presents obstacles because of the auto bailout. Ohio presents much the same problem.
The object of this is not just to attenuate Obama's more limited resources but to get lucky. The events in the Middle East demonstrate how volatile this election could become. It is entirely within reasonable possibility that one or more of these states could slip into the Romney column if the news breaks the right way or if Romney can finally find his voice.
All of this is pure speculation in the absence of polling data. It is possible the Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon could come into play and I say that because I see Romney's campaign as struggling to overcome friction. That is, Romney is on the right side of all the issues and all the data especially the economic data and now the news out of the Mideast yet he has been unable to capitalize on a state of affairs that normally would put a challenger ahead.
Obama has been able to hold Romney back with a negative campaign, a clever convention, and a complicit media but the damn is liable to break anywhere and when it does it will come as a flood. For example, the price of gasoline will probably spike, given the situation with Iran and in the Middle East. If Romney cannot capitalize on the present price of gas he should have lost to Newt Gingrich who clearly could have done so.
I believe there will be an event or simply a tectonic shift which will cause the electorate to move markedly in Romney's direction. This is purely a visceral belief, hopefully more than a hope, but certainly not anything justified by recent history or polling data.
Too bad about MI and PA... had some fleeting hopes for those two states, but at the dems’ feet they seem to be in what they feel is a happy place.
Whether we like to believe polls or not, Romney has a steep hill to climb. Whatever chance we have of defeating Obama rests in the level of anti-Obama enthusiasm. It’s going to take a massive turnout to get Romney over the top on Nov. 6. If the frighteningly ugly spectre of Obamination II isn’t enough to spur conservatives and other patriots to get to the voting precincts, I don’t know what is.
Americans are stupid. We’re paying for a few generations of union-controlled teachers who intentionally produce dumbed-down students who, DUE TO THEIR IGNORANCE OF HOW AMERICA IS SUPPOSED TO BE, will vote Democrat. Our educational system isn’t about education. It’s about producing DEMOCRAT VOTERS at the expense of tax payers.
Missouri a toss-up?
I’d put Missouri in the leans Romney column. If Obama couldn’t take this state in 2008 then he sure isn’t going to four years later.
Kind of like picking who is going to win the SB in Sept.