Posted on 09/17/2012 10:19:27 AM PDT by xzins
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Breakdown
| Safe Romney | 178 |
| Likely Romney | 3 |
| Leans Romney | 15 |
| Toss-up | 95 |
| Leans Obama | 46 |
| Likely Obama | 21 |
| Safe Obama | 180 |
Toss-up-95
CO (9)
FL (29)
IA (6)
MO (10)
OH (18)
VA (13)
WI (10)
Leans Romney -15
NC (15)
Leans Obama -46
MI (16)
NH (4)
NV (6)
PA (20)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Those so called ‘true conservatives’ are nothing of the sort. Even more so they attempt to wrap themselves in the mantle of patriot but allowing the Kenyan to get back in disproves that notion as well.
You have certainly lived all over the world! We have only lived in MO for seven years this month. Moved here from Texas. I am curious about the voting here and wondered how you see MO going in November. The upper portions of the state appear to be strongly liberal while the southern portion is mostly conservative.
Thank goodness I am in a very conservative county. Very few democrats even try to run around here. Maybe some other Freepers from the state can help out here with their views.
One quibble: I think it is perfectly possible for Romney to win Wisconsin and not win Ohio, the two states have been on divergent courses with the reforms in Wisconsin being confirmed by the voters and the reforms in Ohio failing to find the same degree of support in the polls.
Nevertheless, it remains my view that the situation will not remain static and we will see a distinct trend.
Yep, it’s romney but still within the margin of error. I believe he moves them to leaning once they fall even slightly outside MOE.
NC just moved to leaning and it’s at 5 points now. He might call his breaks at 5, 10, 20, but I’m not sure.
Secondly, Nate Silver -- much like Frank Rich -- is a math-impaired idiot who couldn't get serious employment elsewhere. (see also, Frank Rich's current gig)
Thirdly, most importantly, the unique symmetry of the Incumbent Rule (Panagakis, Bowers, et al) is that the corollary has held true for Presidential elections, and nothing else. An Acceptable Challenger will take at least 80% of the Undecideds from a sitting President.
At this time in every election cycle, there are conservative pundits saying our guy is going to lose because he isn’t up tn points with a staff that acts like they’re mind-melded. And in every cycle we have conservative pundits saying, “Don’t worry, it’s only September, and fill in blank here will win the race.”
And every cycle, the guy either wins or loses and the group that said he was a dud or a stud in September pats themselves on the back for being right.
In short, Erickson and Rubin mean squat, and so does Limbaugh saying today that the Obamaites are panicking.
Many moons ago.....
I lived in New Hampshire for 10 years. During that time a rapid influx of “Massholes” and other northeastern urbanites changed the political nature of that state when they visited to have their wilderness experience and ended up staying..Classic case of moving to a conservative area but dragging along your big city ideas.
When Jeanne Shaheen was elected governor, the first Democrat in living memory, her first two year stint the budget doubled - touchy feely social programs etc.
Much of the establishment and professional class are chic Birkenstock clad liberals. Southern NH is essentially Boston North.
there are so few of us true conservatives, that we can’t lose it for Romney.
In Ohio, for example, in 2008 there were 7,500,000 registered voters and only 5,500,000 million actually voted.
A good ground campaign would have won it for McCain, but he didn’t have one.
Even if Romney uses the just a fourth of only the 70,000 mormons in Ohio, then he’ll have a larger ground campaign than McCain did.
Ground campaign is the only recourse, really, for a republican candidate anymore, given that the media is so totally against them from the get-go.
A ground campaign, though, can only work if the candidate is giving at least a halfway decent reason for supporting him. So far Romney has kept his powder dry. He’s not firing many rounds here in Ohio.
His current ad here in southern Ohio is “I’m Mitt Romney. I’ll create jobs and not send them to China.” It’s a really average ad in which he is overly nice.
I’ve heard it maybe 3 times in the last week.
Thank you for your post! I am outside Springfield and have been wondering about the northern part of the state. I am in a 98% conservative county and last week the Repubican county office had not received any Romney signs or bumper stickers. The gentleman said he guessed it was because MO wasn’t a battleground state.
I’d put Missouri in the leans Romney column. If Obama couldn’t take this state in 2008 then he sure isn’t going to four years later.
It’s all a matter of having valid numbers, and there are valid numbers based on elections in which the results can be checked.
Besides, the real rule is about the final poll before the election. one can’t really extrapolate from 50 days out
-— “I’m Mitt Romney. I’ll create jobs and not send them to China.” It’s a really average ad in which he is overly nice.
I’ve heard it maybe 3 times in the last week. ——
I’ve been banking on a negative ad campaign in the last few weeks. If he won’t do it, the PACs will.
There our some tough PAC financed ads running in our (MA) only contested congressional race.
I live in Florida, and I haven’t been seeing anything of Romney here, either. Granted the press is trying to ignore him, but he sure seems to be making it easy for them.
Where are you in Fla? I am in St Augustine which is in St Johns county. The county is very Republican. We are seeing a lot of Romney ads in addition to a lot of visits to Jacksonville which about 40 miles north of us. Heck, Romney even did a campaign stop here in sleepy St Augustine the Monday after he announced Ryan as his running mate.
The invasion from Mass
Obama is in Cincinnati today. I think Romney was in the area last week.
But, he has a much lower key presence in the TV ad category.
I do think he’s playing a “Hail Mary” strategy of tough campaigning only the last week or 2 of the election.
Given that the media is in the tank for him, it might have some merit. If he fires some really hard-nosed rounds too close to the election for them really to respond to, then maybe that will be beneficial.
It’s risky, though.
It’s time we remove our tinted glasses. The polls are not looking good. Trying to explain them away by saying they are oversampled when they don’t look good for us and adopting them as reliable when the support Romney doesn’t make for sense.
The fact of the matter here is that Romney is running a poor campaign and is trying to please the press. He needs to unleash himself and spell out an economic agenda and tell voters time and again what a foreign policy mess this is and inform voters on exactly an Obama re-election wil take this nation on an irreversible trajectory to ruin and third-world status. Bombard the airwaves starting now. This is serious business. If Obama holds the debates to a draw (and the MSM will make sure that they show him as winning) this is all over and so is our beloved country. FReepers here need to stop blaming the messenger and start screaming at the lackadaisical campaign of Romney.
Columbus and Cincinnati's totals added to the southern section of Ohio (which generally runs more conservative) will help cover the democratic votes in Northeastern Ohio where Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown are (think Rust belt-democrats).
I believe this is the strategy that Rove used during the Bush years to turn Ohio toward the right again.
Having a republican, Kasich, there as Governor also helps a lot since he's actually addressing the problems in Ohio and has been turning things around in the state.
I fear that Mitt has some internal polling data that suggest he is done. No point burning all your cash for no effect.
Hope I am wrong, but the way he is acting I fear I am right.
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