[Leto]

First the 2010 turnout model applied to the CBS/NYT results:

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Poll Normalizer
Media Poll results		Democrats		Republicans		Independents
Romney		5.0%		90.0%		51.0%
Obama		92.0%		7.0%		40.0%
Other		2.0%		.0%		2.0%
Undecided		2.0%		3.0%		6.0%
Poll Sample		Democrats		Republicans		Independents
Corrected turnout model		34.7%		36.0%		29.3%
		Corrected Results			Inc Undecideds 3/2 challenger
Romney		48.6%			51.21%
Obama		46.7%			47.54%
Other		1.3%
Undecided		3.6%

So using the 2919 turnout model Romney instead of being behind 3% is up by 2%, if the undecideds break 3/1 for the challenger Romney is up almost 4% and 'wins' 51.2 to 47.5.

Let's look at the result if the current party affiliation is applied to the CBS/NYT numbers

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Poll Normalizer
Media Poll results		Democrats		Republicans		Independents
Romney		5.0%		90.0%		51.0%
Obama		92.0%		7.0%		40.0%
Other		2.0%		.0%		2.0%
Undecided		2.0%		3.0%		6.0%
Poll Sample		Democrats		Republicans		Independents
Corrected turnout model		33.30%		37.60%		29.20%
		Corrected Results				W Undecideds 3/1 to challenger
Romney		50.4%				53.1%
Obama		44.9%				45.8%
Other		1.3%
Undecided		3.5%

We see in this case Romney is up by 5.5% not including undecided voters and 7.3% if undecided voters break 3/1 for the challenger.

This result is very close to the projection of the Univ of Colorado economic prediction from a few weeks ago, which has been correct since 1980.

Using this spreadsheet with a variety of polls from the CNN to ARG to Reuters the results have been very similar, WHEN THE SAME TURNOUT MODEL IS APPLIED TO THE RESULTS.

That is almost all these polls, have the candidate winning their party supporters by ~90 to 5%, the independents are going anywhere from +10-+15% for Romney over Obama.

The media gets the narrative they desire by using the turnout model that fits their narrative.

Having trouble with the preview hope the formatting turns out OK

[MNJohnnie]

Excellent work. Thanks for taking the time.

[Viennacon]

Woah! Thanks for creating this model. Should let a few Freepers sleep easier tonight.

[Red Steel]

This is close to my prediction. Romney 55% Obama 45%

[tsowellfan]

Thanks for your work!

[princeofdarkness]

But the MSM pollsters say the 2010 results shouldn’t matter cause it’s going to be 2008 again, and if you don’t believe them they are just gonna put their fingers are in their ears and sing “la la la I can’t hear you”./

[princeofdarkness]

By the way, nice work. My prediction still stands at 53%-45% Romney.

[ShovelThemOut]

Come on, Freepers! We have to get the word out about this! Too many on our side are seeing these BS polls and believing them and getting depressed enough to stay home on election day! This is what the lame-stream wants!

ALWAYS look at the poll internals to see the party identification break-down. As soon as you see Dims being over-sampled, get on to as many sites as possible to leave comments exposing this!

REMEMBER WISCONSIN?? On election day the exit polling (which over-sampled Dims) predicted the race was too close to call. Actual result: Walker won 53-47.

DON’T FALL FOR THE LAME STREAM SNAKE OIL!!

[1035rep]

Thank you for taking the time to break this down.

[Gator113]

Your effort is greatly appreciated.

[italianquaker]

Thnx for doing this

[Steelfish]

Very nice work. Thanks again. Suggest you write article to WSJ on this.

[TomGuy]

The Dem/MSM internal polls are probably showing similar, and that is why they are throwing everything they can against the wall to see what sticks.

I have said in other posts that this election is going to either be a 1980 style landslide for Romney; or, if the Dem/Lib/MSM polls are accurate, be so close that a few dozen votes in a dozen states will determine the election.

With the state of the economy, joblessness, some inflation, and now the foreign affairs problems, I just don’t see how Obama is really maintaining or being ahead of Romney.

[Steelfish]

QUESTION:
Has mid-term turnout been used by these pollsters to predict previous presidential elections? Did these pollsters use the 2004 Presidential or the 2006 Mid-Term elections to poll the 2008 elections?

[Stosh]

Two points:

1) Although I don’t expect the 2012 turnout proportions to be as good for Democrats as it was in 2008, I don’t expect it to be as bad for Democrats as it was in 2010: Obama wasn’t running in 2010, and there are still plenty of kool-aid-drinkers who worship the ground he walks on. They’ll vote in 2012 even if they couldn’t drag their worthless butts out of bed in 2010 to vote for some lame-o donkey Senator or Representative.

2) The MSM polls will have the effect of energizing Democrats (another chance to dance with the winner) and discourage Republicans (can’t beat this dirtball no matter how bad he is). That further moves the turnout ratios in the wrong direction away from the 2010 numbers - unless we keep from falling for their machinations, and do all we can do keep our acquaintances from getting taken in as well.

[MacMattico]

What's pi**ing me off lately is that I was at an appointment where they had CNN on and they kept running at the bottom of the screen, “Obama leads among those under 50” and then the percentage; “Obama leads among” ...and then another demographic. About 4-5 different groups Obama led with, not one mention of a group Romney led with, like perhaps those over 50. The Obama stats just kept rolling over again and again. It made me think of when Florida was called early for Gore, which may have suppressed the vote in the Panhandle. So that's what CNN has come to— out right voter suppression. And I won't even go into MSNBC. It's disgusting.

My hope is that it will backfire— Republicans will realize they MUST get out and vote. Kind of like when I was reading, off subject but interesting, the other day where the show “Family Ties” was written by liberals who wanted to have the hippie left parents be the driving force behind the show and have the conservative kid shown as an idiot these parents were trying to raise. But it completely backfired as Alex P Keaton became the reason for the shows success and the public identified with him.

[jessduntno]

“but this election season I have found them to be very consistent even thought the results vary quite a bit.”

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhh.....

[Redmen4ever]

v.g.

Although the subsamples are small, by combining the polls you get a reasonably sized tracking poll of independents. Romney’s winning with them. To off-set this, the media polls over-sample Democrats.

Regarding the argument that you can’t compare 2010 to 2008, because one is a midterm election and the other a presidential, compare 2010 to 2006. A swing of 6 points toward the Republicans. Therefore, a swing of 6 points from 2008 to today is not unreasonable. (Rasmussen thinks the swing will be larger.)

[MrChips]

You know, I think it is even worse, because they not only routinely oversample Democrats, but they also oversample women. THAT is more subtle, but I have seen it done.

[Cyber Liberty]

Since President is in reality a group of 51 elections, there should be a different turnout model applied to each state, especially the battlegrounds. And it could prove difficult to decide on predictive models because each state’s voter turnout can be heavily influenced by down-ballot items, like propositions.

[ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton]

Thanks you Leto. If true this will be as big as the Reagan win over Carter.

Something else reminds me of that election but I can’t quite put my finger on it.