Posted on 09/08/2012 1:03:40 PM PDT by nhwingut
For a long time I have been predicting that Mitt Romney would get the Republican nomination, and that he would then win the general election. I have said that the election will be reasonably close–demographic realities dictate that all national elections will be reasonably close, for the foreseeable future–but not a squeaker; more like 2004 than 2000. Given President Obama’s dismal record, that seemed like a safe prediction.
But it now appears that the election will be very close after all, and that Obama might even win it. It will require a few more days to assess the effects (if any) of the parties’ two conventions, but for now it looks as though the Democrats emerged with at least a draw, despite a convention that was in some ways a fiasco. In today’s Rasmussen survey, Obama has regained a two point lead over Romney, 46%-44%. Scott Rasmussen writes:
The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters.
So the Democrats’ red meat, over-the-top attacks on Republicans apparently worked at least as well as the Republicans’ more positive, low-key approach.
On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? I am afraid the answer may be that the country is closer to the point of no return than most of us believed.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
3 reasons why it’s close:
(1) The media are in Obama’s pocket
(2) Too many people want “free stuff” from the gummint
(3) Lots of dead people and illegals voting (fraud)
Go back and look at some threads from about 6 months ago and you’ll find some clues.
Biased media, bogus polls, and a population that’s half on welfare. I suspect the biggest reason is bogus polls.
Curious, if people want their free stuff, would going very conservative even work?
I wonder if it is.
In every poll we see, Romney is ahead of Obama in nearly every subgroup. In the subgroups that Obama leads, Romney seems to be doing better than McCain did the last time out.
The only real explanation is Obama is losing a little bit everywhere but making it up in volume.
This race will end on the scale of Reagan-Mondale. If Obama wins we may as well all take our remaining marbles and go home because the nation is done.
Beat me to it. Besides, if you believe a chastisement is coming, doesn’t evil, in the form of BHO, have to prevail?
Who says it is?
Too many are freaking out over a bump from the DNC. There is a guaranteed bump. Ras has Obama at 46 which is terrible for an incumbent. I assume tomorrow and Monday may continue to be high as the convention ended Thursday night. Monday would be fri-sun.
We’ll see where it looks on Wednesday or thursday. I agree, I thought the GOP left a lot on the table during their convention. They stayed focused on themes, not proposals. I understand waiting until after the dnc so you don’t give then a week to trash without opportunity to counter. I think they should have further directed obamas ideology while they had the cameras. I also feel their ads need to dig a lot deeper. Reminding people the economy sucks is not enough. They need to drill all the failures and clips of Obama and widen lying about recovery for the last 3.5 years. I expect we will see much of this, but they seem to be running a purposely weak hand so far. I am not worried about these polls, so far. Obama is far from winning.
The MSM has been part of the DNC for decades and it has a big effect. The Democrats probably can’t get less than 45% no matter what they do because of all the government employees and welfare recipients.
In 2000, a week before the election, it appeared that Gore was clearly losing. Then, the Thursday before the election, the story of Bush's long-ago DUI arrest came out, and the media obsessed over it over the weekend. A sizable number of evangelicals who would have voted for Bush stayed home and Bush wound up with fewer popular votes than Gore.
Axelrod and company probably think they can do something similar with the Mormon issue. They may be clever enough to make it appear that they are not involved. The media will be happy to help out. I don't know whether it would have the same impact--GWB's arrest was new information, whereas Romney's religion has been known all along.
It is close..and right now I’d say we’re behind.
It’s because despite the fact that we have so much to go after Obama on, Romney is running a soft McCain like campaign and it is disgusting.
Have you seen the latest Romney ads hitting swing states? Apparently it’s a huge buy and they are incredibly soft and ineffective.
How about an ad which takes the line from the Democratic convention that “we all belong to the government” and countering that with “the government belongs to us”? That is at the core of the differences between the two parties. I think a 15 or 30 second ad along those lines, if done well, could be effective.
In Barry’s Amerika, nanny state government freebies and handouts are big voter getters. It’s hard to run against that. Freebies and handouts trump freedom and liberty in Barry’s Amerika.
Why is this election even close?
50.1% RECEIVE more money from the government than they pay in (the Dole).
49.9% Pay Taxes
The top 5% of tax payers pay 90% of the tax burden.
Now does it make sense?
And why this game has gone about as far as it can go, before crashing down?
All 3 listed reasons won’t overcome the disparity between the polls and the actual vote this fall.
It isn’t. Obama is a socialist nut. Nobody is buying the MSM spin. We are in trouble and it is because of Washington D.C.
Free Markets are in peril. I don’t care if Obama’s skin color is red, white and blue, that hitler fag is out.
“Have you seen the latest Romney ads hitting swing states? Apparently it’s a huge buy and they are incredibly soft and ineffective.”
Agreed. I have seen the ads. You can see them on the Romney youtube channel. The Romney ads are incredibly flaccid. There is so much material to hit Obama with - not even personal stuff - just broken promises and failures - and the big Romney ad buy ignores all of it except jobs. Disappointing that Romney went after Gingrich and Santorum so aggressively but now treating Obama so passively.
Because this is a very stupid country.
I get tired of conservatives like Hinderaker lumping SS recipients with entitlement recipients. We were given no choice but to make these contributions, neither were our employers. If I had the $200K plus interest that was taken from me I would be very happy, but i don’t so at the very least i expect the agreement to be kept and I resent like hell for anyone to say I’m on the govt dole. If the system needs to cut me 10%-20% fine, i can handle that pretty easily but don’t include people like me with welfare types,multi year food stamp recipients, 99 week UI recipients,people using Medicaid and ERs for colds and headaches, farmers getting subsidies for fallow land,businessmen getting loans and support for bogus deals like green energy,people with earned income tax credits and people who pay no taxes, and the list goes on. But Hidenraker is right on one thing, when you add those emotionally invested in Progressivism to those receiving entitlements to the minority special interests it’s OVER!
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