Posted on 08/01/2012 2:23:25 AM PDT by neverdem
I do not think there will be one demographic in 2012 where Obama exceeds his 2008 vote.
Given that, he has very little chance at victory.
The Dinkins/Bradley/Wilder Effect is merely reflective of MSM bias in polling.
so it's a perfect analogy then.
Spot on. I don’t “Dinkins Effect” is an original term either, thought the “effect” is a valid observation.
silver lining of the century.
Who said it was?
I essentially pointed out that a 5% drop in black support would be close to a rounding error in the overall vote.
This “effect” does not occur anymore. I was told it would occur in 2008 and it didn’t.
I have little faith in the people of this country to see past class warfare. The citizenry is sick and far too dependent on the government.
Dinkins was so bad, that not only has NYC failed to elect another black man as mayor, we haven’t elected anyone with a (D) next to their name for 20 years!
Likewise...
If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Romney go into the voting booth and vote for Obama instead, that’s a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.
One MUST remember that there are VAST amounts of Obama voters, who will NOT vote for him again, that are NOT being 'reported' by the MSM.
Whatchu talkin' bout, Massa? :)
It’s also the “I don’t want to say anything bad about the Black guy (Colored guy for the super seniors” syndrome.
“New Yorkers realized that having a black democrat mayor for another term would likely irrevocably send NYC into the same decline that Detroit experienced.”
I remember the riots well; they killed the fellow from Australia in a wild pack attack. The city is still declining, but they’re really pricing the multi-generational dependents out now. The gentrification, accompanied by the Hispanic invasion, would indicate that Dinkins may be the last black mayor of NYC.
Dinkins paved the way for Giuliani. No pundit predicted a white Republican as mayor.
That only matters state by state. He could lose the gross national vote, but win the EC.
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