Posted on 08/01/2012 2:23:25 AM PDT by neverdem
Andrew Malcolm at Investors Business Daily has an interesting column on whether those who are telling pollsters they intend to vote for the president really are going to do so. The vast majority of them surely will, of course. But politics, like baseball, is a game of inches. If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama go into the voting booth and vote for Romney instead, that’s a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.
There are numerous signs the Obama campaign is very, very worried. His fundraising has not been the money machine it was in 2008, despite Obama’s burning out the engines of Air Force One going, hat in hand, from one group of fat cats to another. He is running through the money he does raise at a furious pace, mostly running negative ads in toss-up states. He is trying to shore up his base rather than reaching out to the center as he would if his base were secure. That doesn’t bear much resemblance to Ronald Reagan’s “It’s Morning in America” campaign of 1984, does it? There are even those who say Wall Street’s recent climb, despite very gloomy economic news, is due to a growing conviction on the Street that Obama is toast.
And yet pollsters all have the race tight as a tick, as Karl Rove terms it. What’s going on?
I think what I call the Dinkins effect is in operation. David Dinkins was the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York in 1989, having defeated three-term incumbent Ed Koch in the primary. His Republican opponent was Rudy Giuliani. The polls all showed Dinkins well ahead, but he won the race only narrowly...
(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...
I do not think there will be one demographic in 2012 where Obama exceeds his 2008 vote.
Given that, he has very little chance at victory.
The Dinkins/Bradley/Wilder Effect is merely reflective of MSM bias in polling.
so it's a perfect analogy then.
Spot on. I don’t “Dinkins Effect” is an original term either, thought the “effect” is a valid observation.
silver lining of the century.
Who said it was?
I essentially pointed out that a 5% drop in black support would be close to a rounding error in the overall vote.
This “effect” does not occur anymore. I was told it would occur in 2008 and it didn’t.
I have little faith in the people of this country to see past class warfare. The citizenry is sick and far too dependent on the government.
Dinkins was so bad, that not only has NYC failed to elect another black man as mayor, we haven’t elected anyone with a (D) next to their name for 20 years!
Likewise...
If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Romney go into the voting booth and vote for Obama instead, that’s a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.
One MUST remember that there are VAST amounts of Obama voters, who will NOT vote for him again, that are NOT being 'reported' by the MSM.
Whatchu talkin' bout, Massa? :)
It’s also the “I don’t want to say anything bad about the Black guy (Colored guy for the super seniors” syndrome.
“New Yorkers realized that having a black democrat mayor for another term would likely irrevocably send NYC into the same decline that Detroit experienced.”
I remember the riots well; they killed the fellow from Australia in a wild pack attack. The city is still declining, but they’re really pricing the multi-generational dependents out now. The gentrification, accompanied by the Hispanic invasion, would indicate that Dinkins may be the last black mayor of NYC.
Dinkins paved the way for Giuliani. No pundit predicted a white Republican as mayor.
That only matters state by state. He could lose the gross national vote, but win the EC.
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