Posted on 07/26/2012 9:43:47 AM PDT by Kaslin
As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively, it dawned on me, looking at the various "swing state" surveys taken recently, that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead, when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.
When surveys are conducted, the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be "weighted" or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other words, those conducting the poll must adjust the numbers to reflect the percentage of men, women, Republicans, Democrats, Independents, Whites, African-Americans and other groups such as Hispanic-Latinos who will likely vote in the contest.
This is no easy business, and it is why polling is as much an art as it is a science. But there are some ways to get to these determinations, such as polling a state and asking which party voters identify with separately and before the actual "ballot test" survey is taken. But enough of these geeky polling details.
I have in my gut a belief that the polls we are seeing now underrate Romney's strength. For example, we saw a hugely enthusiastic young voter turnout for Obama in 2008. As a result, polls were weighted to give more voter strength to the category of 18- to 29-year-olds than in past years. In general, younger voters just do not turn out to vote.
This year, I am seeing evidence that the enthusiastic and energetic vote of young Americans for Barack Obama has at the very least lost some of its mojo. That likely means they are not as excited about voting. So, an adjustment in the "weighting" of a survey by a reasonable number of percentage points downward for that group could mean the difference in some of these critical "swing" states between Obama being up by one point and Romney being ahead by a percentage point or two.
Another group that likely needs some "tweaking" by pollsters this go-round are those who identify themselves as "independent" voters. In 2008, they helped decide the presidential race, as a significant percentage were sick of the Bush years and were desperate for any type of "change" they could believe in, so to speak. This year, we have more voters than ever identifying themselves as independents. This is surely a result of their absolute frustration with a Congress that appears to be chasing its tail and producing nothing of value.
Independent voters seem to be leaning more toward Romney than they did toward John McCain in 2008. So, if one considers the fact that this group of voters likely should be inched up in the process of producing the final poll, and the fact that Romney is doing better among this group, that too might move a survey that shows Obama with a one or two point lead in a given state and shift the more realistic results toward Romney leading by a few points.
As I said, polling is as much an art as it is a science. But my guess is that some of the states where we are seeing results with Obama leading are either showing too strong of a lead or perhaps have the wrong man in the lead.
Of course, polls don't make campaigns. But they do sometimes create a sense of momentum or, as was the case with McCain, impending doom.
In the end, it is message, image and strategy that win the race -- and debates. For Romney, the message is not clear, and the image is still fuzzy. But he may have a strategy that is going to work. While Obama has burned through his cash early on, Romney has been raising dollars and holding back on expenditures. Obama's camp has spent a fortune trying to savage Romney early in the contest. But the Obama camp may run low on cash just as we enter the last and most important phase of the race. If Romney can get his act together and outspend Obama in the end, Romney has a sporting chance of winning, no matter how the pollsters adjust their numbers.
I think the pools are all incorrect.
I believe that Mr. Romney will be swept into office.
Consensus thinking oftentimes does not work. For example, virtually everyone or every I read or hear about claims the race is very, very close.
1) i’ve posted numerous times that from my observations 90% of the people in my area (and i live in liberalsville, NY) who voted for obama in ‘08 want him replaced- i get the idea they will vote for Romney or not vote at all...
2) this anti-obama intensity is even greater amongst young voters, who usually tell me how much they like the anti-obama t-shirt i am wearing or give me a thumbs up on my anti-obama bumper sticker....the same people who were washed up with obama four years ago...
the fury against obama, in my area anyway where 8 of 10 people had obama stickers on their cars four years ago, is growing daily...even the ardent obama supporters in my gym, who i was going toe-to-toe with over the winter, meekly walk around and NEVER talk politics anymore...
“pools” s/b “polls
They’re purposely overweighing the Dems so we won’t be alarmed when the fraudulent voting happens.
If Obama is winning in the polls, why should I bother donating? I’ll spend that money myself. I won’t bother helping man the phones at organizing for America. Hell, I won’t even bother to vote.
Poll manipulation - a two edge sword? We can only hope.
I don’t know man - this election cycle seems so wierd.
I totally agree with you GLA:
The young people in my life barely know the name Romney but say very loudly that they will vote as they say , “ABO”(anyone but Obama)!
it dawned on me, looking at the various “swing state” surveys taken recently, that many pollsters might be making a significant error
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and reading that it dawned on me that the word “might” is one of those words that means something...
Willard just MIGHT be desparate enough to add this deception to others in order to fool voters into choosing him because hes “the winner with the lead”
many pollsters MIGHT NOT be making a significant error
They just MIGHT be ACCURATE...
As it stands Willie doesnt have the base behind him...
He has less enthusiasm than McCain had at this interval...the days and weeks before the VP announcement...
Few Republicans were saying they wouldnt vote for MCCain...
We greoaned but he did have SOME redeeming factors that Wee Willie lacks...
McCain had a lifelond track record of voting PRO-LIFE...while Willie has been life long PRO-ABORTION
McCain had served our country...while Wee Willie was a at least TWO Time draft dodger...
McCain was not a supporter of same sex marriage...while Wee Willie was the FATHER of SAME SEX MARRIAGE in MASS..
McCain was for America...Wee Willie wanted us to be kissin buddies with China..
Although McCain wasnt perfect, he did have proof of the the main Conservative concerns...
So when McCain said Governor Sarah Palin would be the VP on the GOP Ticket, she was the icing on the cake...
This time we dont have a Conservative maybe nominee we can begrudgingly support...
We have an sick immoral lifelong abortion pushing liberal who gets all gushy when he tells us that he wants to give adoption rights to homosexuals and their “loving relationship” partners...
MIGHT Wee Willie win in Nov ???
He might...
But then again he might not..
and the way it looks right now he MIGHT NOT even if he were to put a black woman in as the VP...
Something he WONT do ...
The Obama voter registration movment is very strong in my area. I can name seven now who have updated or registered to vote because of Obama.....They plan on voting against him.
1) i’ve posted numerous times that from my observations 90% of the people in my area (and i live in liberalsville, NY) who voted for obama in ‘08 want him replaced- i get the idea they will vote for Romney or not vote at all...
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I hope you are right but I have not spoken to one Obama voter who says they will vote for Romney, I have asked many.
“Few Republicans were saying they wouldnt vote for MCCain...”
really???!!!
i guess you either weren’t on this site four years ago or don’t remember the anti “juan mccain” fury...the amount of GOP intensity against mcCain in ‘08 is greater than it is against Romney- there were 1000’s of posters on Freep who openly stated they would not vote for McCain....that changes slightly when he tabbed Palin...
and i don’t think its because people are pro-Romney as much as they realize the massive mistake which was made four years ago by sitting on the sidelines and letting obama get elected...
I am always curious about the cell phone factor. About 1/3 of the population has only a cell and some smaller percentage of landlines are tied to services that also allow portability of phone numbers anywhere in the US. While I am sure that the pollsters keep sampling until they hit the right number of each sub-group (sex, age, race) per region; at some point that ever growing group that seems to be invisible for the sake of polling would almost have to skew results.
The DNC convention is in Sept...
I think they will replace Obama...
Hillary ??? someone else ???
Probaly more to the middle/moderate...
Dont know but I think therell be another name on the ballot in Nov...
i am in New Castle, NY- just down the road from RFK Jr, Andrew Cuomo and the Clintons....it is also a very heavy liberal Jewish area....
what is striking is the number of Jews overall who i’ve spoken with that readily admit to me they voted for obama in ‘08 but would like nothing more than to spit in his face now...
You don't overweight Dems by +11 to hide voter fraud.
This is all about MOMENTUM. The liberal MSM wants to encourage the Obama base and discourage the Romney base by publishing phony polls showing The One with big leads.
It is that and nothing more.
I won't comment on how big I think the margin is, but it's close enough in a huge number of House and Senate races that I hope we will try harder for conservative turnout than ever before. If Romney wins and really is the severely conservative politician that Candidate Romney pretends to be, he needs a Congress that will support him. If the presumptive nominee turns out to be more like Governor Mitt, then America needs as conservative a Congress as possible to restrain him, perhaps even to force him to pretend that he likes being conservative, or even to explain that word to him so he knows why limited government, individual freedom, and personal responsibility are all good things.
we’re working behind the scene on a “follow the money” which would explain many of o’s decisions...If it we can find the link, and it becomes public he’s sunk.. frmail me if you want to help
Heres another thing too...
Obama can beat Willard...
He probably would not be able to beat someone else who is a real Conservative if we get a different nominee at Tampa...
Someone that the base can ENTHUSIASTICALLY, tearfully, joyfully with relief get behind...
If we put someone else in, the DNC will have to replace Obama...
Willard has too much baggage for the Obama team to take pot shots at...
they have not even begun yet...
Hes too much like Obama...
I cant vote for Willard...
It would be no different than voting for Obama...
I want someone to vote for...
The only way to guarantee a win this year is get rid of Willard...
It wont matter if the DNC replace Obama if we have someone without liberal baggage we can vote for without losing our souls...
I can see a landslide in November from my window...
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