Posted on 07/22/2012 7:40:31 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Could it be true? Is all of this endless campaigning, a billion dollars in advertising and 24/7 blanket coverage of every word, gesture and sneeze by the candidates all a gigantic waste of time in an election which has essentially already been decided? That’s one possibility suggested by Dave Helling of McClatchy Newspapers who suggests that, "People's minds are made up, unlikely to change."
[A] growing number of political scientists and campaign consultants --- backed by the latest polling data --- think the daily campaign back-and-forth is having no significant effect on voters.
Most Americans have locked in their presidential decisions, polls released Thursday suggested, and the already small number of persuadable voters shrinks by the hour. Put another way: America could vote for president next week, and the outcome would probably be the same as it will be in November.
“That’s accurate, barring some really big, big event or change in the political environment,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, who has studied presidential voting patterns.
OK… so if the election is over, tell us who won so we can all get back to the important business of getting ready for the NFL pre-season games. Sadly, the analysis breaks down at that point, saying only that a rolling index of poll averages shows that the numbers are so tight that they’re within the margin of error. (And if you’ll pardon my saying, I think we already knew it was going to be close.)
Not for nothing, but telling us that the election is over but it’s going to come down to a handful of voters is pretty much akin to saying that the gun pointed at you is really close to being on target, so the bullet may or may not hit you. I think you’d want to have that information at hand in advance so you could still duck.
The author also goes on to point out that all of this depends on things staying pretty much as they are. A “big mistake” or a critical change in either domestic or foreign circumstances could still tilt the scale. I found that admission to be a rather blunt blow to the premise of the entire article.
But there is still a valid and interesting phenomenon being described in this study which is worth mulling over. Are Americans making up their minds much earlier than they did as little as fifteen years ago, and if so, why? It’s possible, at least for a percentage of the available voting pie. One reason cited by Helling is that campaigns and their well funded surrogates have the money to begin running saturation advertising much earlier in the cycle than in the old days, when candidates would jealously hoard much of their war chest for the critical final weeks and then launch an all out ad blitz.
If the voters are already living in a deeply divided nation (politically speaking) and begin seeing reinforcing messages on a daily basis as much as a year in advance, I’m guessing it can have an effect. If you’re already leaning one way or the other, the constant flood of “information” can serve to bolster those feelings. If you’re already leaning in Romney’s direction, all those ads from Obama about Mitt’s “shady” overseas dealings, investments and outsourcing will probably roll off your back as little more than poorly spun side effects of a successful, competent business career. If you’re pretty well leaning toward Obama, ads talking about massive spending, debt and unemployment will probably be interpreted as “just the way things are now” after the GOP broke the system before Obama took office and the way they “won’t work with him” to fix anything.
It’s easy to see how the “undecided vote” could be pared down to a far slimmer margin much earlier than it used to. And those unfortunate enough to live in the roughly ten or so swing states have doubtless grown accustomed to the constant presence of the candidates on their TV screens and in their public squares as little more than a bothersome fact of life.
Sure, the election may be over for a vast majority of Americans… possibly as much as 90 to 95 percent. But it’s that last little bit who will decide which side of the razor this election lands on. And with that in mind, the two sides are going to be fighting all the harder from now until election day morning.
Yep ... made up my mind in 2008.
How the hell can the election be over?! We haven’t counted the fraudulent ballots yet!
Undecided must be that double-minded man James talks about ... unstable in all his ways.
If there really ARE undecided people at this point, and they are significant enough number to sway the election one way or another ... fagedaboudit ... America is finished.
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Then it's over. One cannot stand close to a fire. |
Anyone who has not made up their mind does not live in the US. Our kids can’t get jobs - period. The war is rolling toward us at flank speed. And we are lead by someone worse that an idiot.
Common housefly was noticed just now in Aurora buzzing the President. The critter just wouldn’t leave.
Received an automated phone survey last week and was asked if my mind was already made up and if there was a chance I would change it. Suspect if they are doing this across the country they have a good idea of November’s outcome.
Undecided must be that double-minded man James talks about ... unstable in all his ways.
I have a theory that the "undecideds" are former Obama voters that have decided they are not going to vote for him again, but suffer from such white guilt and can't bring themselves to say they are voting for Romney and against the black guy because the poll taker might think them a racist. I guess we'll find out if the undecidedes break 80% toward Romney as Dick Morris claims is going to happen.
The election was decided on Oct. 3rd , 1965 , when Johnson , Ted Kennedy , Humphrey and others sold us out and delivered the quota system on citizenship , giving 85% to people from third world countries in Africa , Latin America , etc., and only 15% to Europe & other first world countries . The chickens have come hoome to roost as they say . Obama will win , one way or another , as much as it pains me deeply to say it .
A leftist will win the race for ‘12 POTUS. No doubt about it.
Minds made up because Obama has to go.
A $Billion in advertising for 0bama is not going to change my mind.
I don't watch TV anyway.
” made up my mind in 2008.”
Mine was the night of November 2, 2007.
Rasmussen shows Obama with a 29% approval rating with the undecided voters. Looks to me like they have already made up their mind about him.
America could vote for president next week, and the outcome would probably be the same as it will be in November.
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America’s 2-year Election Season is ridiculous. In England, their National Elections campaign is only like 5 weeks long.
Then they’re not undecided
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