FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 4, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Rasmussen has slowed down his key-state polling, so there has been little movement in the past month. At this point, my analysis of Rasmussen's polls has the race at Obama 247 and Romney at 234, with 57 Electoral Votes up for grabs. For this report, I will go through each state on my watch list in detail to set the trend going forward.

Colorado (9 EV)

Colorado is tied at 45% each. In 2008, Obama won in Colorado over McCain with 53.7% to 44.7%, so Obama lost a 9% lead.

At this time In 2008, Colorado was favoring Obama 43% to 41%. Rasmussen's next Colorado poll was in the last week of July, when Obama pulled ahead 49% to 42%. In mid-September it flipped to McCain 48% to 46%. The end of September had Obama leading 49% to 48%. The first week of October had Obama finally pulling away 51% to 45%. In the week before the election, Obama held his lead 51% to 47%.

Florida (29 EV)

Florida went for Obama in 2008 by 50.9% to 48.1%, making it a close race. I can see why Obama wants to block purging the voter rolls of invalid voters. Rasmussen has only polled Florida once so far in early May. At that point Romney polled ahead 46% to 45%.

In 2008, McCain was leading for most of the race. In March 08, McCain was up 47%-43%. In April it was 53%-38%. In May it was 50%-40%. Mid-June was 47%-39%, and end-of-June was 48% to 41%. Things changed in the end-of-July poll. Obama took the lead 46%-45%. Ny mid-September,it was back to McCain on top again 51%-46%. At the end of September, the vote evened at 47%, and in early October Obama led 52% to 45%. The last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Florida is due for another poll.

Georgia (16 EV)

Georgia voted for McCain 52.1%-46.9%. Georgia has not been polled this year.

In early March of 2008, Georgia was for the GOP 53%-40%. The few polls that there were hovered at +/- this same result. It narrowed in the end as the undecided broke for Obama.

Indiana (11 EV)

Indiana was an extremely close race in 2008, voting for Obama by 49.9% to 48.8%. This time around, and end-of-May poll has Romney leading Obama 48%-42%, a comfortable lead.

In 2008, Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana until mid-September, when McCain was ahead 49%-47%. A last poll in November had McCain still leading 49%-46%. Obama turned it around in the last week.

Iowa (6 EV)

Iowa was a solid Obama state, voting 53.9% to 44.4%. In June, Rasmussen's poll found Romney barely ahead 47%-46%.

In 2008, a June poll showed Obama ahead of McCain 45%-38%. The next poll at the end of September still showed Obama leading 51%-43%. One last poll in November had Obama 52%-44%.

Michigan (16 EV)

Michigan is a blue state, voting for Obama 57.3% to 40.9%. A poll in mid-June shows Obama losing 7%, making this race just within the margin of error at 50%-42%. Another poll would be useful to see what direction Michigan is trending.

A June 2008 poll had Michigan in a closer race, with Obama leading 45%-42%. A late-July poll widened the lead 47%-39%. A September poll had Michigan at 51%-44%, and a November poll had it 53%-43%.

Missouri (10 EV)

Missouri was a squeaker of a race in 2008, voting for McCain by the slimmest of margins, 49.4% to 49.2%. Currently, a June poll has Romney with a solid lead at 49%-42%. An earlier poll had ROmney leading 48%-45%, so Romney is improving here.

At this point in 2008, McCain was ahead in Missouri 47%-42%. By October, Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. In November, Rasmussen had it tied at 49%.

Montana (3 EV)

Montana was a close race in 2008, with McCain winning by 49.5% to 47.1%. As of May, Romney was leading 51%-44%. By June, Obama's support fell, making the race 51%-42%.

In 2008, Rasmussen had Republicans ahead in April by 48%-43%. By July, that flipped to Democrats ahead 48%-43%. In October it was back to McCain ahead 52%-44%. A final November poll had it for McCain at 50%-46%.

Nevada (6 EV)

Nevada went solidly for Obama in 2008 by 55.2% to 42.7%. It is still strongly in Obama's camp, with an early poll showing the race at 52%-44% for Obama. Nevada is at the edges of the margin of error, making it almost a certainty that it will vote for Obama again unless a new poll suggests otherwise.

Nevada was actually leaning Republican for awhile in 2008, with a May poll showing 46%-40%. A June poll narrowed the lead to 45%-42%, and by July it flipped to Obama 42%-40%. In September, it was back to McCain 49%-46%, but in October it was back to Obama 51%-47%. November had Nevada for Obama 50%-46%.

New Hampshire (4 EV)

New Hampshire voted for Obama by 54.1% to 44.5%. A June poll shows that Obama lost 6%, making it a race at 48%-43% for Obama.

In 2008, New Hampshire always preferred Obama by at least 10%.

North Carolina (15 EV)

North Carolina barely voted for Obama 49.7% to 49.4%. A May poll has Romney in the lead 51%-43%. The latest poll in June has the race closing a bit, with Romney still leading at 47%-44%.

In 2008, McCain was in a narrow lead for the summer at 45%-43%. By the end of September, McCain lost his lead to Obama 49%-47%. Rasmussen's last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Ohio (18 EV)

Ohio voted for Obama with 51.4% to 46.8%. An early-season poll had Obama still leading at 46%-42%, with both sides losing support. A June poll has some of the undecideds moving to Romney at 46%-44%, a four-point add for Romney and another two-point loss for Obama.

Ohio was close in 2008 also, with the race polling at 45%-44% for Republicans throughout June. By the end of September, the race was 48%-47% for McCain. Rasmussen's final November poll had it even at 49%.

Pennsylvania (20 EV)

Pennsylvania went for Obama by 54.5% to 44.2%. A May poll shows Obama losing 7%, giving a 47%-41% Obama lead.

In 2008, McCain consistently trailed Obama throughout the election 5% or more, with the state finally breaking decidedly for Obama in October.

Virginia (13 EV)

Virginia overwhelingly voted for Obama by 52.6% to 46.3%. An early poll showed Romney leading 45%-44%, and an early June poll shows it tied at 47%, indicating that Obama has lost 5% so far.

A June 2008 poll had the race barely for Obama by 45%-44%. By July it was tied at 44%, and by September Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. The November poll called it for Obama 51%-47%.

Wisconsin (10 EV)

Wisconsin was solidly Democrat in 2008, voting for Obama 56.2% to 42.3%. In May, this was still true with a poll showing Obama leading 49% to 45%. A mid-June poll now shows Romney in the lead 47%-44%, making Wisconsin a 12-point loss for Obama.

In 2008, Rasmussen was polling Wisconsin at 45%-43% for Obama throughout June. In July, Obama's lead widened to 50%-39%, and in November it was still 51%-44%.

Summary of Electoral College breakdown:

Obama - 247						Romney - 234
Safe		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	16	Michigan	9	Colorado	16	Georgia	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	6	Nevada	29	Florida	11	Indiana	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	4	New Hampshire	6	Iowa	10	Missouri	11	Arizona
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania	13	Virginia	3	Montana	6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii					15	North Carolina	4	Idaho
20	Illinois					3	North Dakota	6	Kansas
4	Maine					18	Ohio	8	Kentucky
10	Maryland					9	South Carolina	8	Louisiana
11	Massachusetts					3	South Dakota	6	Mississippi
10	Minnesota					10	Wisconsin	5	Nebraska
14	New Jersey							7	Oklahoma
5	New Mexico							11	Tennessee
29	New York							38	Texas
7	Oregon							6	Utah
4	Rhode Island							5	West Virginia
3	Vermont							3	Wyoming
12	Washington
201		46		57		98		136

Watch List:

• Arizona: +0.6% (R +13%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Colorado: No Poll (R +0%)
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: +2.6% (R +1%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Michigan: +1.1% (R -8%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Missouri: +1% (R +5%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• New Hampshire: +4.6% (R -5%) - moves back within the margin of error
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: No Poll (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -6%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: +2% (R +0%)
• Wisconsin: +2% (R +3%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%

And in the Senate... things aren't looking as good. The Republican lead is slipping, and chances of getting 51 seats has fallen below 50%.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Montana saw some significant movement recently. A 10% Republican lead is now a 2% lead.

Republicans better turn their attention to the Senate immediately, before it slips further from their hands.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +16%) - based on latest poll, dropping from watch list
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Montana 2: -4% (R +2%) - moves back within the margin of error
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: No Poll (R -7%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -2% (R -2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3

I will continue to post these analyses as my own periodic threads instead of appending it to other news threads.

I look forward to reader comment.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping.

[umgud]

Thanks. I’ll spend some time digesting this.

[Repeal The 17th]

bookmark 4 later

[hoosiermama]

FYI good reference material.

[Diogenesis]

It is pathetic.

AMERICANS HATE ROMNEYCARE AND OBAMACARE.

Mr. RomneyCARE MUST drop out and save America.

[sergeantdave]

We need to remember, too, that the propaganda press had Mondale up by 20 points over Reagan in the ‘84 election.

So if you’re relying on the Goebbel’s press to crunch your numbers...well, maybe you should consider finding a different data set to work your numbers.

[JimSEA]

Thanks a lot. You have put some good effort into this. I’ll be referring back to it often I’m sure.

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm limiting my analysis to Rasmussen's polls only. I've been looking at the trends of various polling groups.

I must say that I am disappointed by the amount of polling that Rasmussen is doing this cycle compared to 2008. There are several races that need updated polls, and Rasmussen has slowed down his campaign polling compared to past cycles.

I can think of a few reasons why his polling has slowed. These are my own conjectures of the possible, not based on any data:

1. He's running out of money because sponsors don't like to have to discuss the implications of his poll results.

2. He's self-censoring because he doesn't want to be the reason why others are forced to discuss his poll results.

3. He's being boycotted, driving up his polling costs.

4. He doesn't care anymore.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

One more thing...

I started a report on my analysis of the "expert" polling groups' 2010 House race track record, based on the work I did for Key House Races on FR.

I'll publish that report soon, but the early take is that they rode the fence for as long as possible. It was my opinion that they were trying to astroturf people into believing that the backlash against Obama was not the wave that people were saying. It wasn't until the very end that they were forced to land with Republicans only to save their reputations as pundits. But they waited until the last possible moments to break.

-PJ

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races, arranged by state at this point. Eventually I'll arrange the list by rank of most likely to win to least likely to win. I'd like input from other Freepers to accomplish this.

Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be surprises as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

Let's roll!

 

State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)
CT*	Primary 8/14/12
FL	Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#)	Bill Nelson+
HI*	Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)
MI	Primary 8/7/12	Debbie Stabenow+
MO	Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#)	Claire McCaskill+
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester+
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine
WA	Primary 8/7/12	Maria Cantwell+
WI*	Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

If you would like to be pinged to Political Junkie's excellent White House and Senate analysis threads, Freepmail me and I'll keep a PJ Ping List.

[Political Junkie Too]

Whatsamatter?

After 11 years, I'm still not worthy of some kind of sidebar recognition?

Do you find MSM articles more factual or worthy of FR eyes than what I just wrote?

Whom do YOU want to win the election? How are you working to motivate the people?

-PJ

[sergeantdave]

You have a big job in front of you. Let us know what you find.

This statement by you gives me faith in your analysis:

“It wasn’t until the very end that they were forced to land with Republicans only to save their reputations as pundits.”

Best of luck, FRiend.

[nascarnation]

Baraq is toast in Indiana.

We’ve got great candidates for Governor (Mike Pence) and Senator (Richard Mourdock who ousted Lugar in the primary).

The Independence day parade in my town was probably the biggest ever, with a huge contingent of Catholics waving “Support Religious Freedom” signs - that’s all new.

I saw a guy from the D party trying to hand out fliers and NOBODY would even take one.

I think the Supreme Court decision on BaraqqiCare has really energized patriots.

[SharpRightTurn]

Good work, PJ2.

Keep it coming.

[SharpRightTurn]

Also, please add me to your ping list.

[Persevero]

I’d love to be on your ping list. Your research is so thorough! Thank you for sharing all your hard work.

Now ora et labora, y’all.

[MindBender26]

With respect, this is way too early.

A few factors that need to be factored in:

The good:

Republicans are usually -1.5 to 2.5% in the generic congressional poll. Rs are now +7%, a huge but quiet shift.

Ds always poll 2-3% better than the election results. This year, people are afraid to tell a pollster that they will not vote for the Orama because they afraid to be seen as racist, but when the curtain is closed, will do so in huge numbers..

Most importantly, the people who will decide the election, not us or the DU crowd, but the middle 18%, aren't interested in the election yet.

Finally, the bad:

If he is not totally assured he will win, Obama will do something huge at the D convention; probably dump Biden.

We shall see.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

Mr. RomneyCARE MUST drop out and save America.

Nah!

[NoLibZone]

Mitt was shoved down our throats day 1 by the GOPe.

Anyone-

Who is a good alternative to Obama that we can support?

Thank you.