We need to remember, too, that the propaganda press had Mondale up by 20 points over Reagan in the ‘84 election.
So if you’re relying on the Goebbel’s press to crunch your numbers...well, maybe you should consider finding a different data set to work your numbers.
I must say that I am disappointed by the amount of polling that Rasmussen is doing this cycle compared to 2008. There are several races that need updated polls, and Rasmussen has slowed down his campaign polling compared to past cycles.
I can think of a few reasons why his polling has slowed. These are my own conjectures of the possible, not based on any data:
1. He's running out of money because sponsors don't like to have to discuss the implications of his poll results.
2. He's self-censoring because he doesn't want to be the reason why others are forced to discuss his poll results.
3. He's being boycotted, driving up his polling costs.
4. He doesn't care anymore.
-PJ
I started a report on my analysis of the "expert" polling groups' 2010 House race track record, based on the work I did for Key House Races on FR.
I'll publish that report soon, but the early take is that they rode the fence for as long as possible. It was my opinion that they were trying to astroturf people into believing that the backlash against Obama was not the wave that people were saying. It wasn't until the very end that they were forced to land with Republicans only to save their reputations as pundits. But they waited until the last possible moments to break.
-PJ