I know nothing of racing so could you explain why (in your view) it would be a hard race for him to win and why “fresh horses coming in” means aside from the obvious, meaning they are different horses, would make a difference?
Thanks
IHA has a good chance of winning, but the threat he faces is from good fresh horse that has the endurance to go the longer distance at Belmont. IHA has had two hard races in less then two months. That takes a lot out of a horse, so a fresh horse will have the best chance of beating him. The great Zenyatta only ran about once every couple of months to insure she was fresh for every race. Zenyatta won 19 of 20 races and only lost her last race by a nose. Being fresh means a lot, horses take a long time to recover from a hard race. Recall the Rachel Alexander never recovered from her hard race at the Woodward. But it is going to take a very good horse to beat IHA so my money would be on him. I think with a good trip he will win.
Years ago, it was common to race horses more often. The best horses today race, on average, once every 4-5 weeks. To win the Triple Crown, the horse has to win THREE races in 7 weeks. It’s a strain on “modern” horses whose breeding has become more refined. Fresh horses, those that haven’t raced in a month or so, will be more likely to win, given that they’re not as worn down overall as those who have competed in all 3 races, like IHA. The Belmont is a great race for a trainer with a distance runner to try to win over IHA. Rags To Riches, a filly bred for distance, won it a few years ago after foregoing the K.Derby and Preakness.