Posted on 05/30/2012 7:16:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
I'm not going to relax on this election, but you're right. It doesn't matter who the republicans put on their ticket.
This is 2008 redux. Back then, Bush hatred was so great that the Dems could have ran a cigar store Indian (they did for Governor in my state, NC) and reasonably expected a win.
Well, that's accurate enough, but I don't think that they'll turn out in the same numbers. Obama has lost the "Coolness" factor. When you're not the coolest kid at the table anymore, there's no way to get it back.
All the youth won't flock to Romney, either. They'll just stay home......which is OK by me.
Reagan got 50.7% of the popular vote in 1980. If all of Anderson’s votes had gone to Carter (highly unlikely), Reagan still would have gotten 50.7% of the popular vote in 1980.
I’m pretty sure 50.7% is a majority.
Well, maybe in some parts of the country. In public schools, they will talk about how he almost saved the country from disaster, but those evil republicans kept obstructing him.
Mark
Wow, you’re like a little school kid, labeling people with principled objections “haters”. Who else does that? Oh yeah, LIBERALS.
The only people who will vote for Obama are the Hate America First people and the free ride mob.
Let’s not forget the cracker haters too.
I have yet to be convinced that obama is going to lose. I still believe that there are enough fools, American haters, self hating white Liberals,and parasites to re-elect him.
Everyone points to POW/MIA but spend any time in Texas and you’ll hear it has to do with EDS. Money at the root of it always.
Two of my kids will be old enough to vote here in Virginia this November, voting in a presidential election for the first time. They are conservatives as are their friends. I also have a niece and a nephew in Ohio, casting their first presidential election votes against Obama. I am not convinced that the youth vote is going to be what it was the last time.
How much do you want to bet that the foreign third party is going to be ousted?
White liberal TV hosts - he's up from 96% to 99% as of the latest polling. They just know they are eventually going to get a monthly government check as a reward for their loyalty. :)
The vote fraud machine will be well-oiled this time, so the "votes counted" will probably be a good bit larger than the actual "ballots cast". Even so, I don't think Obama can generate enough enthusiasm among his base to win - it takes hours of work to drill through all the Obama holes on those punch card ballots like they did for Gore in Florida, and there will probably be something better on TV that night.
Otherwise known as Nixon's Revenge.
Let’s just kill this talk until after the Democrat convention.
ha.
Never heard that one before, but I like it
Good Lord, you're a mess.
You label me a "little school kid" and a "liberal"... oh wait, I mean a "LIBERAL"... because you feel I labeled people. Do you not see why that is silly?
Additionally, I was talking about people who hate Romney. The people who hate Romney proudly proclaim their hate of him. If you don't hate Romney, then I wasn't talking to you, genius.
I personally don't hate Romney, I just think he's a big government hump, but that's better than an American-hating marxist.
What was the point of your objection to my post again?
This isn’t hope, this is reality.
The author is pointing out the very realities of the world, and if you dig into the internals of the polls even today, you will see something that has been in every poll for 6+ months.
Simply, Obama cannot beat ANYONE this election cycle. His ONLY shot at winning was for the Republicans to put up someone that could be painted as more scary than Obama. And while Romney is a putz, he cannot remotely be spun as scaryier than Obama.
Obama has a peak, an absolute peak of 42-43%. If he campaigns perfectly he won’t get much above that number, and as his campaign stands right now, he won’t even get that, because he’s not doing everything perfectly.. His campaign is a shambles.. his attacks on Bain capital were nothing more than veiled attacks on capitalism itself, it backfired big time and he’s sticking with it? Why? because he is a socialist and honestly believes most americans are too.. He doesn’t see that he won in ‘08 out ot disgust with Bush, not out of endorcement of him.
He’s not going to win, he’s going to lose support in every major group, with the exception of the socialst/communists. Every other voting demographic he is going to lose points with.. Not only that, but the republican apathy of 08, that led to low republican turn outs, won’t happen this time. Every poll I’ve seen shows the majority of folks are going to crawl over cut glass to vote this fool out of office.
Swing voters that voted for him in 08 by and large realize it was a mistake, and the overwhelming majority are not going to repeat it.
Its not even going to be close on election day, not only that, but i truly believe 60 seats in the senate, is well within reach.
Now hopefully if this does happen, republicans will use that opportunity to undo 60 years of destructive programs that create learned helplessness in people and get this country back on track. Not holding my breath mind you, but I am hopeful.
Sorry, but anyone voting on that single issue, has been voting democratic for decades, so there is no gain there, perhaps an enthusiasm, but not a gain.
Secondly even if you do gain, that group is 1-2% of the overall population. If you assume 80% voted for him last time, and 90% do it this time, it still is easily countered many times over by a 15% swing by veterans.
There is nowhere for Fauxbama to run, before he could claim to be anything, he had no record other than “PRESENT”.. now he can’t say anything and not have a record to compare it against, and its a record of every measurable way of FAILURE.
HEre is the simple fact, and its the simple fundamental reason, forget everything else.. here is the money :
Obama will face election day with fewer Americans working, than there were the day he took office. NO PRESIDENT!, NONE in the modern age, has EVER had that distinction. Even the Carter years disaster had cumulative job growth over his presidency. Obama’s policies have led to fewer people working today, than when he took office, period.
He can claim “FORWARD” all he wants.. its nonsense and people know it.
“Many folks forget that in 1980 there was a third party candidate on the ballot.John Anderson split the pinko vote in half making it easier for the Tipper to win.We have no such situation this time and I think Obozo will beat Mittins without breaking a sweat.”
And you obviously forgot that Anderson ran in the primaries as a Republican before running as an Independent, making the Rep-Dem vote count split even bigger than just Reagan.
And that was Gipper not Tipper . . .
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