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To: RC one
In order to break 270, Romney has to flip Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, NH, and something else.

No. Those would leave him at exactly 270. What the heck numbers are you looking at? Use that link I posted maybe you are looking the electoral votes from before the new census.

to make it worse, he needs to flip a safe state.

I have no idea what state you could be referring to. I laid out the numbers for you. The "safe" Obama states result in about 200 votes about the same as the states I think are certain to go for Romney (206).

I also don't understand why you are fixating on the number of states he needs to "flip" either. Bush needed to flip a lot of states to win in 2000. Obama needed to flip 1 and did much better than that. Things change, this is not 2008 when Obama won because Bush and the GOP were as popular as dirt. Romney is tied or slightly ahead in credible polls. You could better compare this election to 2004.

Obama could win, especially if Romney screws up but I think his ceiling is lower, ie if someone pulls out to a decent lead it won't be Obama. If he wins it's narrowly. My own prediction is a narrow win for Romney.

62 posted on 05/15/2012 1:31:14 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

another 3rd shifter I see. First of all, national polls don’t matter, they never do. All that matters to Mitt Romney is “flipping” enough previously blue battleground states and/or other previously blue states and, as I said, that means he has to flip Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, NH, and one other previously blue state. failing to flip the “one other previously blue state” puts him at 265 EVs to Obama’s 273. So, I am sure he’ll grab a few of those states but I don’t believe the demographics are sufficiently in his favor to flip ALL of them.


63 posted on 05/15/2012 1:58:11 AM PDT by RC one (all y'all had to do was vote for Newt but noooooo, he wasn't good enough.)
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