Looking at Nevada's history though, it has picked the winner in every presidential election since 1980.
Nevada has long had status as a POTUS bellwether.
1976 was in fact the first time since 1908 it picked the loser.
Nevada had been close from 1992-2004 but in 2008 Osama won it by 12.5 points, his national margin was 7.27%. We gained a US house seat but 2010 also could have gone much better for the GOP there. A bad candidate can be blamed for the US Senate loss but not the failure to take back the State Senate or losses in 4 of 6 statewide offices (GOP won Governor over Reid’s clown son and the incumbent LT Governor won reelection).
It might now be a little more rat than the country at large.