Nevada has long had status as a POTUS bellwether.
1976 was in fact the first time since 1908 it picked the loser.
Nevada had been close from 1992-2004 but in 2008 Osama won it by 12.5 points, his national margin was 7.27%. We gained a US house seat but 2010 also could have gone much better for the GOP there. A bad candidate can be blamed for the US Senate loss but not the failure to take back the State Senate or losses in 4 of 6 statewide offices (GOP won Governor over Reid’s clown son and the incumbent LT Governor won reelection).
It might now be a little more rat than the country at large.
That is all true, and I wasn’t counting on NV for anyone’s road to 270, but I think there’s still a chance for Romney to carry it because (i) unemployment is much higher than the nation as a whole, (iii) the real-estate bust was as bad here as anywhere in the nation and (iii) the state has a large and growing Mormon population and they may turn out en masse for Romney. But if Romney wins NC, VA, FL, OH and NH, then NV would be just gravy.
As for NV’s bellwether status, it has indeed voted for the winner in 24 of the 25 presidential elections from 1912 to 2008 (all but 1976). However, MO voted for the winner in 25 of the 26 presidential elections from 1904 to 2004, and the fact that it vited for McCain in 2008 wasn’t enough to deliver the presidency to him. And DE was the only state to go 12 for 12 from 1952 to 1996, yet it was unable to deliver the presidency either to Gore or Kerry. In other words, electoral bellwethers lead the way until they stop doing so.
The state that I think is likeliest to decide the 2012 elections, being close to a must-win for both parties, is OH. If OH does end up being decisive, it will be the 13th straight election in which it votes for the winner (and if Romney wins without carrying NV, no other state will have a streak longer than 5 elections).