Human nature. It’s better to be pleasantly surprised than horribly disappointed.
Let me go state by state. I expect a close win but I can’t say I’d be surprised if Romney or dumb voters screw it up. Romney needs to avoid gaffes at all costs but not pull a Dewey and think he can coast even if he opens up a lead.
Obama did okay in Georgia cause of Black turnout alone. It will be lower and even if it’s not 50% will not happen. He can get 47% there but never 50. That winning margin for a democrat would be like getting blood from a stone.
Montana is the least GOP state among the sparsely populated Western prairie states. Obama did well in Montana and pretty good in the Dakotas. He could never win any of them. MT was very close only cause Ron Paul stole 2% as the nominee of the state’s rouge Constitution party. Obama + Nader got almost 48% but 50 is a bridge too far. He’ll get closer to 40 this time. I think ND will put him under 40.
Arizona is one of few states I could imagine having a swing *towards* Obama cause it was McCain’s home state and he did better than a generic Republican would have in 2008 (there are some Mormons there though so maybe Romney would have too). There are 2 polls out, one showing Obama up 42-40 and another showing Romney up 42-40. Scary right?
Lets be real though, AZ is a Republican state there is no chance Obama wins it unless he increases his popularity and wins a big landslide making it meaningless anyway. Clinton only won it cause of Perot. It’s more likely Obama does get that 42%, and Romney gets most of the rest winning big. Undecideds do not go to the incumbent and I don’t know if those polling orgs are even halfway decent, I never heard of them. I think Obama loses AZ by 8-12 points most likely.
Missouri was the closest GOP state. It is not a swing state in POTUS elections anymore. If the Republican wins he’s winning Missouri without difficulty.
Obama will not take any electoral votes from the GOP column.
Omaha and Indiana are gimme gains. The rats hope to hold NC and polls are close but I can’t buy it. He won by an eyelash last time with under 50% and is LESS popular now, the state went huge GOP in 2010. He will lose that.
The big 3 are Florida, VA, and Ohio. We need them all.
Florida tilts the GOP way and I think VA does as well. Ohio is the ballgame, it will probably be tight, this is reason #1 why Portman is on the VP list.
That’s 266.
NH is one of Romney’s home states and is very White. I think he wins that and that’s 270. Obama doesn’t seem strong in Iowa and that’s White I think Romney takes it.
Colorado is a very even state now I expect a very close result there.
That would be 285-253 with NH/IA/CO and that’s my guess right now.
Nevada is more rat than Colorado, Obama won by a disappointingly large margin in a state that’s usually close. Assuredly close and in play though.
New Mexico looks bad I could see them still voting easily for Obama. It was very close in 2004, big Obama in 2008. Martinez as VP could help, Gary Johnson as Libertarian could take 5% and make it impossible anyway.
Wisconsin (10) doesn’t look good but 2008 was an aberration there. It was very close in 2004 and I expect it will be again. A win by the Governor would provide momentum. Ryan or Pawlenty as the VP would help (as would the Governor of course, that’s the man that should be President instead of Glove Romney).
PA and MI tilt dem. PA will be close, MI was big Obama but close in 04 and is a Romney homestate and went big Republican in 2010, (too bad there wasn’t a Senate seat up that year). Both are in play. Either assures victory.
MN is unlikely but not out of range of becoming competitive.
Maine’s second district should be in play but is extremely likely not to matter.
In general, I agree with your analysis. I don’t think NC is a slam-dunk, but with a conservative runningmate for Romney it could become so. That leaves FL, VA and OH, plus one more state, that Romney must win to get to 270. I concur (and have been saying for many months now) that NH could be the state that gets the GOP to 270; and I agree that IA and CO are also possibilities to get Romney over the hump, although I don’t think they’re quite as promising as NH. OH is really the key, since without it I don’t see how Romney could get to 270 short of a GOP resurgence in the Mountain West (PA, MI and WI won’t go GOP if OH is going Dem, and to get to 270 without OH Romney would need NH + CO + IA + NV). That’s one of the reasons why Romney needs to pick Portman. And if everything swings the GOP’s way and Romney wins with 350+ EVs, all the better.
But I have to call attention to a word you used that I had let pass the first time you used it (about a week ago) because I had assumed it was due to fat fingers. Ron Paul was nominated by MT’s *rogue* Constitution Party, not its “rouge” Constitution Party. You must have confused the Constitution Party with that other CP, the Communist Party (of Quebec, I guess). : )
Obama can’t win Arizona. In 2010, AZ elected a republican U.S. senator and republican governor. Republicans gained two seats, in the U.S. House, in AZ.
The Republican will win Florida and Ohio. In 2010, both states elected new U.S. senators and governors. All four of those people are Republicans.
Nice blow by blow breakdown, as usual.
Regarding Nevada, there are a lot of Mormons in Nevada (isn’t Reid Mormon?) so that would help Myth. Also Lost Wages has been hit hard by unemployment and the subprime mortgage debacle. I’ll bet a lot of folks there are highly disappointed in Mr. Hopey-Changey.