In general, I agree with your analysis. I don’t think NC is a slam-dunk, but with a conservative runningmate for Romney it could become so. That leaves FL, VA and OH, plus one more state, that Romney must win to get to 270. I concur (and have been saying for many months now) that NH could be the state that gets the GOP to 270; and I agree that IA and CO are also possibilities to get Romney over the hump, although I don’t think they’re quite as promising as NH. OH is really the key, since without it I don’t see how Romney could get to 270 short of a GOP resurgence in the Mountain West (PA, MI and WI won’t go GOP if OH is going Dem, and to get to 270 without OH Romney would need NH + CO + IA + NV). That’s one of the reasons why Romney needs to pick Portman. And if everything swings the GOP’s way and Romney wins with 350+ EVs, all the better.
But I have to call attention to a word you used that I had let pass the first time you used it (about a week ago) because I had assumed it was due to fat fingers. Ron Paul was nominated by MT’s *rogue* Constitution Party, not its “rouge” Constitution Party. You must have confused the Constitution Party with that other CP, the Communist Party (of Quebec, I guess). : )
THAT damnedable (okay fine, damnable) word has always given me trouble. Since I spelled “rouge” correctly my buddy spellcheck did not help me out. He doesn’t care if the sentence makes sense or not so long as every word is in his database. I appreciate spelling corrections.
I’m never sure where to put commas but it would likely be too much work to make sure my grammar is 100%. ;)