Posted on 04/30/2012 9:13:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Bush’s two successful races, and the map on which he built them, are quite instructive when trying to understand Romney’s narrow margin for error this fall.
In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes — one more than he needed to claim the presidency. In eking out that victory, Bush not only carried the South and Plains states with a near sweep but also claimed wins in swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and the major electoral-vote prizes of Ohio and Florida.
If Romney was able to duplicate Bush’s 2000 map, he would take 285 electoral votes — thanks to redistricting gains over the past decade.
But to do so, Romney would need not only to win the five swing states mentioned above — with the exception of Missouri, all of them are considered tossups (at worst) for the president at the moment — but also hang on to states such as North Carolina and Virginia where Bush cruised 12 years ago. (Obama carried both states in
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Now, the good(ish) news for Romney is that if he has a low ceiling, he also has a relatively high floor.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 173 electoral votes in 2008. If Romney carried those same 22 states under the 2012 map, he would win 180 electoral votes.
Add Indiana, which McCain lost but which will almost certainly go for Romney in 2012, and the former Massachusetts governor’s electoral floor sits at 191.
Given the narrowness of his electoral map window, the key for Romney this fall is to win in places that Bush, McCain and other Republican nominees over the past two decades have struggled to make inroads. No Republican has carried Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10) in any of the past five elections, for example.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Obama can’t win Arizona. In 2010, AZ elected a republican U.S. senator and republican governor. Republicans gained two seats, in the U.S. House, in AZ.
The Republican will win Florida and Ohio. In 2010, both states elected new U.S. senators and governors. All four of those people are Republicans.
I don’t think I’ve ever done that but I can see it happening if were to write something about the Punic Wars. N is right next to the b. :-D
If you wrote about the Punic Wars you’d be careful to spell “Punic” correctly. But if you wrote about “public areas” you’d probably breeze right through it, and if you missed the L the spell checker wouldn’t help you at all.
Nice blow by blow breakdown, as usual.
Regarding Nevada, there are a lot of Mormons in Nevada (isn’t Reid Mormon?) so that would help Myth. Also Lost Wages has been hit hard by unemployment and the subprime mortgage debacle. I’ll bet a lot of folks there are highly disappointed in Mr. Hopey-Changey.
* Romney is at worst unknown. Obama, however, is known. Romney’s positions are clearly to the right of Obama. With Romney you might get 75% of what you want. You might even get more. With Obama you will be lucky to get 5%.
* Reward? First off, the presidency is NOT about rewarding or punishing any individual man. Frankly, NOBODY is that important. It is about the people of the country, first foremost and always. Secondly, losing on “Dont ask Dont tell” came about because we lost elections. What did you think you’d get with Clinton, Obama, Pelosi and Reid? Ice cream cake?? Elections have consequences, and when you lose you get a shift toward the middle, as it validates your opponent and debunks your side. The only way you can shift a party to its base is to have it validated by WINNING. You argue the symptoms and not the root cause.
* I lived in SoCal for almost three decades, so you in the northeast have nothing on us in terms of having to deal with an inept Republican party. And by choosing to play “take your ball and go home” out of spite you will do federally what the state party has done locally, marginalize our views and our values. You will get to keep your precious purity at the cost of giving your true enemy, Democrats, the power.
I totally disagree. He wont win a single state in the south. The Obamaeconomy is just too bad. Plus, I expect Romney to take a surprise state like WI too.
Va polling is showing pretty consistent leads for Dems. Again if only hoping made it so.
Bingo!
Regarding Nevada, there are a lot of Mormons in Nevada
Look at the map, O wants to put AZ in Play.
What states border Utah?
Yes Mormons are a big reason why Romney won the Nevada caucuses twice and he’ll need them to win in November.
Hardly. I wouldn't call Romney a 'winner' under any circumstances. He's a liar and a fraud. Just because you've sunk your standards down to that level, doesn't mean I'm required to do the same. I never have and never will.
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