Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Another Plunge in 3-Month Rolling Average of Petroleum and Gasoline Usage
Townhall.com ^ | March 11, 2012 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 03/11/2012 9:01:38 AM PDT by Kaslin

he following chart shows U.S. petroleum and gasoline usage for December-February compared with the same three months in prior years. Chart is courtesy of reader Tim Wallace.

Note that petroleum usage is back to December 1995 thru February 1996 levels. Gasoline usage is back to December 2001 thru February 2002 levels.

All data derived directly from the Data 10 section of the EIA download.

The daily average of each week in the listed month adds to the monthly total. Some months have four weeks others five, but over three months this tends to average out.




click on chart for sharper image


Contrary to popular belief, the decline in gasoline usage has little or nothing to do with cash-for clunkers or improved gas mileage in cars unless one fantasizes that gas mileage improvements started precisely in 2007.

Wallace comments "If this trend lasts for the rest of the year, Obama's stated goal of a 15% reduction in greenhouse gases based off 2005 numbers may be met this year instead of his 2015 goal."

Should that happen, I wonder how many will be happy with the economic result.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-93 next last
To: MulberryDraw
It’s hard to imagine a recovery where gas and oil usage are plunging.

Exactly right. When Obama took office the gas price was $1.80 a gallon. We have added 33 million people to our population since 2000. The higher cost of gas reflects a down economy. Just look at the graph and see how gas usage surged during the 1990s. People are not driving as much period. The precipitous decline begins with the recession that started in 2008. The reality is that we are still in it. Take a look at the graph for food stamps to demonstrate how bad things really are.


21 posted on 03/11/2012 9:25:00 AM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
My friend (a prepper), who owns a trucking brokerage business, says (yesterday) that he cannot find enough empty trucks (18 wheelers) to fill his shipping needs which are at all time highs.

Vital Signs: Truck Shipments Growing

By Josh Mitchell
WSJ
January 30, 2012

The supply of goods being shipped by truck has been growing. The American Trucking Associations’ index of commercial truck shipments, by weight, rose a seasonally adjusted 6.8% in December from November. The 5.9% increase notched for the full year in 2011 was the largest since 1998. The trucking group attributed the gain to increased manufacturing production and restocking of inventories.


22 posted on 03/11/2012 9:25:29 AM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Eye of Unk
After my Mom died in '09, wifey and I hit the road going cross-country for some long overdue "friends and family" visiting - taking five weeks in the process.

Gas was inching back up into the mid-2's which was sky high at the time.....for our entire time on the road, we probably saw less than 40 RVs; astounding, given that this was just past Memorial Day.

Coming back to California, we left Pecos, TX one morning around 8am and went for a full one hundred miles before we came to another westbound vehicle.

23 posted on 03/11/2012 9:29:03 AM PDT by ErnBatavia (Carterize Obama in November)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: GBA

Disco wasn’t really that bad.


24 posted on 03/11/2012 9:30:27 AM PDT by Jeff Vader
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Wissa

OK, I’ll bite.... how does “warmer winter” signify lower gasoline consumption?


25 posted on 03/11/2012 9:31:08 AM PDT by X-spurt (Its time for ON YOUR FEET or on your knees)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
consumption is down so i guess it's time to raise prices to make up for the lost revenue...
26 posted on 03/11/2012 9:31:27 AM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
Obama Causes Abrupt Inventory Sell Off

Highways are empty here.

27 posted on 03/11/2012 9:32:24 AM PDT by Utah Binger (Southern Utah where the world comes to see America)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: X-spurt

Lower heating oil consumption means less demand. That combined with lower domestic demand on gas, and higher global refining should equal lower prices domestically.

Hussein and the oil cartels are working on it though/s


28 posted on 03/11/2012 9:36:18 AM PDT by moehoward
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: X-spurt
OK, I’ll bite.... how does “warmer winter” signify lower gasoline consumption?

Most everybody around here in Minnesota has noticed that their gas mileage goes down noticeably in very cold weather.

Gasoline is consumed to produce energy. The more of it that is used to heat the air for combustion, the more that is consumed, since the energy used for propulsion should be the same either way. I suppose there might be some small effect too from moving the vehicle through denser air the colder it gets, and more people warming up their cars before driving.

29 posted on 03/11/2012 9:39:45 AM PDT by Wissa (Gone Galt)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: GBA
Yeah, Hussein even makes Carter look good. A bit OT, but at least Carter tried to get our hostages out of Iran, Hussein is not doing a thing with Iran now. Gas, I remember those lines too, in 1979, I turned 13 that summer. I remember the odd/even days here in Pennsylvania. I remember late that summer, I spent a couple of days at grandma's with my cousins form Ohio. They went home but since my mother had to work, single parent, she need to save gas so I ended up staying an extra 3 or 4 days, I came close to missing the first few days of junior high school. BTW, I love disco.
30 posted on 03/11/2012 9:40:40 AM PDT by Nowhere Man (Send Obama back to the ghetto, November 6th.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Wissa
None at all. If anything, a warm winter would likely drive an increase in gasoline consumption as people are likely to drive more in warmer weather.

A warm winter will, however, cause consumption of natural gas and home heating oil to decline.

31 posted on 03/11/2012 9:43:57 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

The interesting thing is that the fuel usage started to crater in late 2005 by this chart. I have created something I call the Biflation Index for a book I wrote that shows the economic peak also coming in 2005.

What this means is that the wheels started coming off the bus with compassionate conservatism, well before Obama, but has continued to accelerate. See my chart here, going back to ‘48.
http://www.futurnamics.com/biflation.php


32 posted on 03/11/2012 9:44:15 AM PDT by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Over the same period, the population has increased ... so the numbers are even worse and point to a continued economic recession if not depression.


33 posted on 03/11/2012 9:49:55 AM PDT by Lorianne (fedgov, taxporkmoney)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GBA
I’m starting to miss Jimmy Carter.

Last year I saw this Billboard in Texas.


34 posted on 03/11/2012 9:52:29 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: EGPWS

Yeah — if you’re young, you don’t realize that its because of the 70s gas crises that all cars now come with a locked gas hatch cover that can only be popped from inside the car as standard equipment.

Prior to the 70s, there was no locked hatch and no locking caps. When locking caps became popular in the 70s, they required a key, which was inconvenient.

So starting in the 80s cars started making hatches that could only be opened from inside the car. No extra key required.


35 posted on 03/11/2012 9:53:39 AM PDT by Harpo Speaks (Honk! Honk! Honk! Either it's foggy out, or make that a dozen hard boiled eggs.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: DaxtonBrown
Biflationary Depression:
Protecting Assets From Inflation & Deflation In A Keynesian Collapse


36 posted on 03/11/2012 9:58:48 AM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
Contrary to popular belief, the decline in gasoline usage has little or nothing to do with cash-for clunkers or improved gas mileage in cars unless one fantasizes that gas mileage improvements started precisely in 2007.

We must be doing a good job of keeping our tires properly inflated.

37 posted on 03/11/2012 10:00:23 AM PDT by Oliver Boliver Butt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stickywillie
when does the law of supply & demand kick in?

It already has. We are importing less crude oil and even become an exporter of refined products (downstream of the refineries)>


38 posted on 03/11/2012 10:01:22 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

People don’t believe it, but oil is are number one export.


39 posted on 03/11/2012 10:02:49 AM PDT by Theoria (Rush Limbaugh: Ron Paul sounds like an Islamic terrorist)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: moehoward
The chart shows a much more precipitous decline in petroleum usage than gasoline starting around 2007/2008, the onset of the "Great" recession. Warm weather reducing the demand for heating fuel could account for some of decline in petroleum demand, but it should have a negligible effect on gas usage.

What I find interesting is how divergent petroleum and gas usage have become. According to the chart, they remained relatively in sync from 1992 to 2007 with the exception of 1998-99 when petroleum usage spiked above gas usage. Now the gap is in the opposite direction and we are in a steeper decline with gas usage higher than petroleum usage.

There seems to be no doubt that there is a direct correlation between the state of the economy and oil/gas usage. The chart portrays a much more gloomy picture of the economy than the happy talk we have been hearing lately. And we have the anomaly of higher gas prices despite reduced demand. The declining value of the dollar, increased global demand from the emerging economies, and the situation in the ME contributes to the rising cost of oil. If this trend continues, this is not good news for the future no matter how one tries to spin it.

40 posted on 03/11/2012 10:05:51 AM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-93 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson