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New poll shows Rick Santorum leading in Alabama GOP primary
al.com ^ | 03/07/12 | George Talbot

Posted on 03/08/2012 7:54:01 AM PST by pgkdan

A new poll released on the eve of Rick Santorum’s first campaign visit to Alabama shows the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania leading in the state Republican Party presidential primary.

The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State University’s Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.

Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.

The telephone poll of 470 likely GOP voters showed 29.8 remained undecided and 15 percent saying they intended to support other candidates. The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.

The poll was conducted March 1, prior to the Super Tuesday vote that helped establish Romney and Santorum as leaders in the race for the nomination, with Romney holding a total of 415 delegates and Santorum with 176.

Gingrich, with 105 delegates, canceled campaign plans in Kansas this week to focus on voters in Alabama and Mississippi, which share a primary election day Tuesday.

But the poll results indicate that support for Gingrich is waning in Alabama, according to ASU political science professor Thomas Vocino.

“The numbers are just not in his favor, and the trend is working against him,” Vocino said. “I can’t foresee a situation where he can rebound and win in Alabama.”

Vocino said Gingrich’s support has fallen steeply since ASU began tracking the race five weeks ago. Gingrich led the field in Alabama with 26.9 percent in the initial round of polling on Feb. 2. His support slipped to 18.9 percent by Feb. 23, when results showed him with a slim lead over Santorum at 18.3 percent.

Santorum’s steady increase over the same time period came almost completely at Gingrich’s expense, Vocino said. Romney, by comparison, has held flat at around 16-18 percent, according to Vocino.

The results indicate that Gingrich is unlikely to reach the 20 percent threshold that would allow him to win delegates in any of the state’s seven congressional districts.

“I think it is very problematic for Gingrich to get any” delegates, Vocino said


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Alabama
KEYWORDS: adiosnewt; al2012; biggovernmentrick; blowhardnewt; bspoll; bspushpoll; byebyenoot; conservatives; crybabynewt; getoutnewt; getoutrick; getthehelloutnewt; newt4obama; newt4romney; newtgetout; newtsfinaldays; newtsplittingthevote; nonewt; pushpoll; rickgetout; rickspoiler; santorum; santorum2012; santorum4romney; santorumspoiler; slimynoot; sorelosernoot; toast4newt; valuesvoters
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To: C. Edmund Wright

For someone who claims to want to discuss things at a, how did you put it to someone else, higher plane, or some such, that was a pretty murky answer.

Would you rather see Romney than Santorum then? That would tell me pretty much all I need to know.


141 posted on 03/08/2012 9:47:31 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: manc
Exactly.  What I hate about these threads is that it will be freeper v freeper.  Personally I’m fed up of all of this crap now and wish Col Allen West and Sarah would come in.

I undertand where you're coming from and I also long for something better than we have been presented with this year.  Watching folks go all in for candidates has been painful though.  Objectivity really has gone out the door.  Anyone objecting is considered to be someone who shouldn't be at Free Republic at all.  Many have been sent packing.  What does that gain us?  General elections come and go, candidates come and go, and some good people are gone forever.  I guess it's the human condition, but it is frustrating.

I can’t see any of these 3 beating obama now after the destruction by Romney and FOX on Newt. Santorum and the media putting him down and saying he is a religious freak and that last debate take one for the team certainly made him look like the old establishment boy .

I expect the media to bash any Christian, but it has startled me to see people on this forum addressing "Father" Santorum using it as a pejorative.  There's been a massive amount of muckraking here directed at Santorum.  A good portion of it, some of the worst of it is actually a fabrication.  He's done some things I don't like, but not nearly as much as folks have bought into, because they saw some dip-stick post something here.

As for Romney the man cannot even get a majority in the south which is the base and the GOP were stupid for thinking that they could push a MA Gov on us who passed Govt health care and who is way out of touch with us normal folk down here and the midwest.

Like you, I hold the RNC ultimately responsible for this mess.  I know the RNC doesn't select these candidates.  They don't fund them, and they don't make big efforts in individual states for them.  What they do though, is go on the media and talk their boy up.  And the ass kissing Romney has gotten from the RNC and Republican officials, former powerful people this year, is cause for folks simply disassociating with the party.  I have never in my life witnessed such utter insanity from the top.  If Mitt Romney is their boy, then this party does not represent me, AT ALL.

Hell did no one up in DC get a memo that it helps when you have someone running from a big swing state and who can actually win?


What I look for are principles, a knowledge base, and the ability to sell yourself and Conservative ideals.

A big swing state guy would be nice, but they have to be the right big swing state guy.  Pete Wilson ran for the presidency in the 90s from my state.  Sadly I couldn't support the guy.  Here was a guy that was willing to go recruit Arnold Schwarzenegger, a guy that was going to suck up all the oxygen in the room.  I refused to back Wilson before this, but he proved my decison to be a good one.

Hey, the guy could have taken California on the road to the White House.  Then what?  We would have had another luke warm bucket of horse sweat in the Oval Office.  Ah..., NO!

At the time, I did my best to let others know that he was a luke warm moderate.  I did not want others to be deceived.  When I see others contribute to seeing people deceived, it really bothers me.

It has been my premise saw it with Bush.  I think we were seeing it with regard to someone else this year.  I'm just not down with that.  We can and must do better.

I'm convinced we have some RNC sleepers on this forum.  They act to cause disruption and confusion here.  Some of them claim to share my ideals, but at the end of the day when I look back on what they have been engaged in, it looks more like destroying some people's chances while acting as if a big supporter, ultimately delivering Romney the nomination.

If any of this rubs you the wrong way, I'm sorry.  It's how I see things.  I like your instincts.  I might not always agree with your remedies, but it's good enough for me that you do see the problems clearly.

Thanks for the comments.

142 posted on 03/08/2012 9:48:45 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Abortion? No. Gov't heath care? No. Gore on warming? No. McCain on immigration? No.)
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To: C. Edmund Wright
"Sheer ignorance. You don’t even know where we agree and disagree. Clueless, but without doubt you are."

Oh...I know exactly where you're coming from. Those of your ilk are entirely too easy to figure out.

143 posted on 03/08/2012 9:48:58 AM PST by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum)
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To: Norseman

I never answered you that way, so don’t worry about it.

I would prefer Santorum, but only by the thinnest of margins, over Mitt. And when you figure out what Santorum is all about, you will agree. If even.


144 posted on 03/08/2012 9:49:36 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright
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To: Norseman
Both Romeny and Santorum have “promised” to repeal Obamacare, but both of them have a long history “taking one for the team” and following along with the Democrats or Public Opinion. Santorum’s many contradictions and betrayals are a matter of public record, as are Romney's. I don't trust either of them.
145 posted on 03/08/2012 9:51:41 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Joe 6-pack

Different plane. We’re done. Believe what you believe. Man’s gotta know his limitations....


146 posted on 03/08/2012 9:51:50 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Santorum’s run a campaign on a virtual shoestring, especially in the beginning, and it’s perfectly understandable that, without money, he missed some opportunities.

Hopefully, if it comes down to Santorum vs. Romney there won’t be too many people, possibly like you (?), who decide Romney is the answer to our problems, because our biggest problem right now is Obamacare, and Romney is not the one to trust to get rid of it.

In fact, for all the criticism Santorum receives for “campaigning only on social issues,” he’s the one candidate that puts repeal of Obamacare (and Romney’s weakness in this very area) front and center.


147 posted on 03/08/2012 9:51:55 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: SeekAndFind

>>How do we know the same scenario won’t play out in Alabama?<<

It might. Hopefully, Alabama voters who don’t want Romney will decide, collectively, on their own, that only one candidate, whether that candidate be either Gingrich or Santorum, stands a chance of stopping Romney, and cast their votes accordingly.

Absent that, either Gingrich or Santorum would have to drop out before the vote is taken, and I doubt either is up to doing that, even if it is the most reliable way to stop Romney.


148 posted on 03/08/2012 9:54:46 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: Carry_Okie

I don’t care how nice a man is. I want a brilliant, tough, mean sonofabitch fighting for me. Not a sweater vest.

Sorry - these are desperate times and I want a capable fighter.


149 posted on 03/08/2012 9:56:01 AM PST by Principled
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To: C. Edmund Wright
"Man’s gotta know his limitations...."

And apparently yours end at tired old Eastwood doggerel.

150 posted on 03/08/2012 9:56:25 AM PST by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

Sir - I agree with your facts A through E, and yet, I think Newt’s mediocre/lackluster/uninspiring performance in the Florida debate is the reason for his current plight.

He had the stage at the time, after SC huge win, and did not come to that debate ready to fight. Consequently, when Romney slapped him, Newt didn’t respond - not with a slap or a kick...nothing. That was most unfortunate, because, I think many voters would have wanted to see what I wanted to see - NUCLEAR RETALIATION.


151 posted on 03/08/2012 9:56:45 AM PST by KMJames
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To: Dr. Sivana
Single issue economy wonks are often voting against their overall interests.

The last several weeks has shown that social issues will be on the back burner this election...-rolls eyes

152 posted on 03/08/2012 9:57:11 AM PST by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

>>And when you figure out what Santorum is all about, you will agree<<

You just can’t answer without implying, directly, that the person on the other side of the argument knows less than you do, can you? Enough then. Go discuss thing with your intellectual superiors, if you can find any.


153 posted on 03/08/2012 9:58:34 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: Norseman

I don’t think having Gingrich drop out would help Santorum. I really don’t.

Now for the people on this site, yes many of us think that. But the general population of R primary voters I don’t think so. Newt gets out, Romney runs away with it. jmho


154 posted on 03/08/2012 9:58:34 AM PST by Principled
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To: Carry_Okie
If Newt can’t win in Alabama, then he has no “southern strategy.”

I'm looking for the candidate with an AMERICAN strategy and ready and willing to use it with PEN IN HAND on day one!

NEWT is the ONLY ONE THAT HAS IT!!

155 posted on 03/08/2012 9:59:37 AM PST by presently no screen name
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Whew! If you can honestly compare Flip-Flop’s record with Santorum’s when it comes to changing positions, I don’t see any hope in pursuing this. Seriously.


156 posted on 03/08/2012 10:00:23 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: KMJames

The Monday night debate in Florida was the beginning of the end. He won SC by attacking liberals. He had two great days in Florida by attacking liberals (Sunday and Monday during the day). He came into that Monday debate with a big lead in Florida and nationwide. Just two days after big SC win.

Then - and maybe you and I disagree on this - then he let Mitt drag him off the subject of liberals and onto the subject of each other - and that was it.

He was outspent on negative ads 65 to 1 in Florida, and he was off message. His only chance was to stay focused on liberals because folks love Newt when he attacks liberals, not so much when he attacks other Republicans or when he defends himself.

But that fits in nicely with my timeline.


157 posted on 03/08/2012 10:01:14 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright
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To: Principled

I am sure that you are right, at least to some degree.


158 posted on 03/08/2012 10:03:32 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright
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To: C. Edmund Wright
But you’ll feel good about our moral superiority while in servitude I guess. As for me, i’ll help with the unborn as soon as the government gets out of my way and lets me take care of my ALREADY BORN children!!!!!1,

The right to life is the greatest element of Liberty and Freedom bar none.

Your position is mixed up and backwards.

159 posted on 03/08/2012 10:04:12 AM PST by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: gov_bean_ counter

Exactly, the ‘righteous’ ones being conned by a ‘liar’.


160 posted on 03/08/2012 10:04:17 AM PST by presently no screen name
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