Not to be overlooked:
Not only will OK, TN, and GA alone bring Newt 100+ additional delegates tonight, but Romney is underperforming expectations in three states already.
We are a third of the way through the process now, and have had many Mitt Romney-heavy states vote already (CO, MA, NH, VT, ND, ID, WY, WA, NV, AZ, VA, And ME). Romney might not even have 400 delegates as of tomorrow, which is a VERY IMPORTANT THING. Why? The majority of the states remaining are not Mitt-friendly states, beginning with Alabama, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Indiana. California allocates by district, and a majority of the districts will go for someone other than Romney. NY/NJ will be Mitt’s sweetest plums, but they won’t be enough.
1144 delegates just got MUCH harder after tonight.
I now openly predict that, based on my calculations, Mitt Romney will fall more than 100 delegates short of the 1144 necessary to be the nominee. I fully predict a brokered convention now, here and on record! I have read the rules for the remaining states this past week with several other folks helping out on the campaign. It would take a tidal wave of momentum in Mitt’s favor to get over the 1144 threshold now.
Hopefully, Mitt gets denied more and more states tonight (ND, ID, AK, among others), but either way we have dealt a deep blow to the GOP-E. Talk of a brokered convention will now get louder, because folks in the “know” are going to be doing the math.
You heard it here first. They will do the math starting tomorrow, and a brokered convention will become very real in everyone’s minds.
Santorum is gaining on Romney in Ohio. It looks like the urban areas have gone for Romney and they’ve reported already.
“You heard it here first. They will do the math starting tomorrow, and a brokered convention will become very real in everyone’s minds.”
You are a brave soul. Hey, if you end up being correct, can we confab over the football season so you can help me with some games?
Just like in football, I am more a spectator than a participant and I really have no clue how it’s all going to go but like to hear others offer up their ideas. It helps me learn. I appreciate it,,well I appreciate most every poster on FR,,esp those with tattoos,,whose husbands have painted over (ask Onyx)
Thanks for your work on the analysis. I’m not crazy about your tagline, but thanks nonetheless :)
The only thing I really was interested in was a last minute dirty trick against Newt in GA. As soon as I saw he had taken GA, I allowed myself to breathe. It ain’t ovah. Not by a long shot.
santorum is reverting to type. mitt is consistently nasty. Newt is a Phoenix. And there is time.
In a brokered convention I don't see how any logical intelligent Republican could even consider anyone but Newt. He's by far the smart guy of the four and has answers already that the others will have to search for.
Thanks for the good news! I needed that.
On a side note I’m currently at Steubenville OH, where Santorum is scheduled to speak tonight.
Right after they announced Newt’s win in GA, they played “the devil went down to Georgia.”
Lol!
I was waiting for a prediction of delegates and what it meant that I could give credibility to, and yours is it.
We are down to delegate interpretation and strategy. Thanks for posting this and keep it up so we know what’s happening. I’ll send you a Freepmail tomorrow.
Then, let's hope that Paul doesn't sniff 100 delegates.
The GOP-E in TN will pick Santorum's delegates there.
I wonder how they will vote in a brokered convention.
Oklahoma @ 14.9% reporting.
Rick Santorum 11,598 35.0%
Newt Gingrich 9,003 27.2%
Mitt Romney 8,857 26.7%
[ The majority of the states remaining are not Mitt-friendly states, beginning with Alabama, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Indiana ]
You forgot KS caucus on Sat. I think Santorum will win, but I’m hoping Newt will. I’m voting Newt nd dragging others along with me to o the same. 40 delegates. I believe 25 go to overall and remainder by congressional district.
Thanks very much, TitansAFC!!
Something to be “cheerful” about.
No Romney, no way!
He’s ruined this primary with his venom and vicious attack ads against his rivals.
His lust for this nomination and power is insatiable.
He’s evil.
I’ll never for for him.