Posted on 02/13/2012 10:25:00 PM PST by Steelfish
FEBRUARY 13, 2012 Santorum’s Turn By The Editors
At the moment Rick Santorum appears to be overtaking Newt Gingrich as the principal challenger to Mitt Romney. Santorum has won more contests than Gingrich (who has won only one), has more delegates, and leads him in the polls. In at least one poll, he also leads Romney. It isn’t yet a Romney–Santorum contest, but it could be headed that way.
We hope so. Gingrich’s verbal and intellectual talents should make him a resource for any future Republican president. But it would be a grave mistake for the party to make someone with such poor judgment and persistent unpopularity its presidential nominee.
It is not clear whether Gingrich remains in the race because he still believes he could become president next year or because he wants to avenge his wounded pride: an ambiguity that suggests the problem with him as a leader. When he led Santorum in the polls, he urged the Pennsylvanian to leave the race. On his own arguments the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit.
Santorum has been conducting himself rather impressively in his moments of triumph and avoiding characteristic temptations. He is doing his best to keep the press from dismissing him as merely a “social-issues candidate.” His recent remark that losing his Senate seat in 2006 taught him the importance of humility suggests an appealing self-awareness.
And he has rightly identified the declining stability of middle-class families as a threat to the American experiment, even if his proposed solutions are poorly designed. But sensible policies, important as they are, are not the immediate challenge for his candidacy. Proving he can run a national campaign is.
Romney remains the undramatic figure at the center of the primaries’ drama. Lack of enthusiasm for him...
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
We’re screwed.
NRO should demand that its editorial staff resign.
On the face, this seems like a typical NR slam on Newt, but I really get the impression that the National Review is tired of carrying Milts water for him anymore. Half the piece is dedicated to pointing out what a disappointment he is to them. NR may see the writing on the wall that Milt isn’t going to make it through some important primary states alive, like MI and possibly OH. Is this them hedging their bets?
You think your pessimism is bad, just imagine how delusional the democrats have to be to get excited about voting for obama.
I agree, most of the states have now voted. /S Seriously what, nine states have voted now? How many do we have again? I hate when RINO’s say sh*t like they’re saying to Newt. You can’t spell RINO without NRO.
I cancelled my subscription in 2008, when they endorsed Romney, maybe others have abandoned them.
Romney Suffers Lack of Conservatism
This from Public Policy Polling. See what happens if Gingrich drops off: It would be worse for Romney if Gingrich pulls out. Santorum beats Gingrich in a landslide
“Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said in a press release. “But it’s important to note that more than 50 percent of voters say they could change their minds in the next two weeks. There’s a lot of room for this race to shift back toward Romney in the coming days.”
“Voters were more likely to have a favorable opinion of Santorum (67 percent) than Romney (49 percent) in the PPP poll.”
“If Gingrich dropped out of the GOP presidential nomination race, his support is more likely to flow to Santorum than Romney, the poll indicates. If just Romney, Santorum and Paul were in the race, Santorum would get 48 percent (up from 39 percent if Gingrich were in) and Romney 27 (up from 24 percent).”
I’m reading it like you are.. and a lot of other pieces too.
You don’t understand how much they want a successful black president.
They are already setting this thing up to be “give me one more chance” “I just need a little more time”
Santorums social stance aint gonna win them over.
I swear Obama could take a crap on their collective heads and they would thank him for the warm feelings.
Maybe the RINOs of NRO realized that Santorum isn’t going to rock the boat too badly when it comes to Washington politics. Even Rush Limbaugh is out of touch on this. If this keeps up, the propaganda war is going to nominate either a RINO in Mittens, or a slightly more conservative Beta Male.
I just can’t bring myself to have the energy or the desire to ever pull the lever for Mittens or Saint Rick. It’s unthinkable to me that we’ll waste a perfectly good opportunity to push for some major reforms thanks to such an openly socialist and vulnerable Democratic President. We can reform the tax structure here. Initiate a flat tax (or, get on a reinvigorated Cain train and make our next fight something in favor of the 999 or the Fair tax), initiate serious reform of social security by embracing the Chilean model, obliterating all the bureaucracy the libs have put in place for years and years...
But, instead conservatives are getting fooled to vote for a Social Conservative who believes in Catholic ideas of Collectivism and government social support. The only thing he does is maintain the system, albeit in a way “favoring” certain industries, but not embracing a truly equitable system. It’s still the same old corruption with the same old progressive tax system with the same old games, rhetoric, and ideas. But hey, he takes cute pictures with his baby, and he’s a good guy! Nevermind that he has no ideas and that the best defense he can come up with is to accuse the other candidates of being worse than he is.
If Saint Rick wins the nomination, I don’t know if he can beat Obama. I myself will never give a vote for mediocrity. I’m sure others will, but I just can’t do it.
I meant to append “< gd&r >” to that.
My comment to their article currently going through their “approval” process...
You conveniently neglected to mention that Newt currently has garnered far more popular votes than Santorum, 838,715 vs. 431,819. Newt is the only one to win a state where turnout MASSIVELY increased in this primary, South Carolina with about a 35% increase in turnout. All other states were flat or suffered decreased turnout. That shows Newt is the only one of the bunch who has, at least once, shown the ability to catch fire with the public. And if not for Florida breaking the winner-take-all rule, I believe Newt would also have more delegates than Santorum.
That being said, there’s no question the momentum is on Santorum’s side. But I suspect the real reason you want Newt to drop out of the race is because you have endorsed Romney and Romney’s path to victory becomes much easier if he has only one opponent left to attack. Right now, Romney is forced to play Whack-a-mole with his negative ads. When he whacked Newt, Santorum popped up. If he now whacks Santorum, Newt may pop up again. Romney’s at a messaging disadvantage having to train fire on two targets. He divides his resources across two different fronts and risks looking like a desperate and vindictive candidate. He might be able to make people believe that one or the other of his opponents is the devil incarnate, but people may become more skeptical if the message becomes, “Everybody in this race is the spawn of Satan except for me!”
Santorum said in a September FOX News debate that, of the people on the stage, he would select Newt as his Vice Presidential nominee. I suspect both Newt and Rick have devised a two-front strategy to take Romney out and later join forces on the same ticket. I suspect one will withdraw at the time and place of their choosing, most likely soon before the bulk of the winner-take-all states start voting. For now, they can collect proportional delegates which, if necessary, can be released to one or the other at a brokered convention to put their combined total above Romney’s.
From PPP
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-leads-in-michigan.html
Santorum leads in Michigan
Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum’s taken a large lead in Michigan’s upcoming Republican primary. He’s at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.
Santorum’s rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum’s becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.
Santorum’s winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as ‘very conservative’ at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.
Republican voters aren’t just declining to vote for Gingrich at this point- they don’t even like him anymore. Just 38% have a favorable opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. His numbers are inching back closer to what they were before his surge in the polls began in November.
Michigan is perceived as a state where Romney really has a home field advantage, but only 26% of primary voters actually consider him to be a Michigander while 62% do not. Only 39% have a favorable opinion of George Romney with a 46% plurality having no opinion about him. Romney really doesn’t have some great reservoir of goodwill in Michigan to fall back on.
“Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s important to note that more than 50% of voters say they could change their minds in the next 2 weeks. There’s a lot of room for this race to shift back toward Romney in the coming days.”
PPP surveyed 404 Republican primary between February 10th and 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable........................................................ 32%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 49%
Unfavorable .................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable........................................................ 67%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%
Q5 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be a
Michigander, or not?
Consider him a Michigander ........................... 26%
Do not ............................................................. 62%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clark Durant?
Favorable........................................................ 12%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 73%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable........................................................ 52%
Unfavorable .................................................... 18%
Not sure .......................................................... 30%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Scotty Boman, Clark Durant, Gary Glenn,
Randy Hekman, Pete Hoekstra, Peter
Konetchy, Chuck Marino, and Rick Wilson,
who would you vote for?
Scotty Boman ................................................. 6%
Clark Durant.................................................... 9%
Gary Glenn ..................................................... 4%
Randy Hekman ............................................... 2%
Pete Hoekstra................................................. 42%
Peter Konetchy ............................................... 1%
Chuck Marino.................................................. 0%
Rick Wilson..................................................... 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 34%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 11%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 12%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 24%
Rick Santorum................................................ 39%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 13%
Q10 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 47%
Might end up supporting someone else .......... 53%
Q11 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 18%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 10%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 17%
Rick Santorum................................................ 18%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 37%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ......................................................... 13%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 27%
Rick Santorum................................................ 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes.................................................................. 27%
No ................................................................... 58%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q14 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical.......................................... 48%
Are not ............................................................ 52%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 46%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 3%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 6%
Moderate......................................................... 18%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 35%
Very conservative ........................................... 38%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 55%
Man................................................................. 45%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 4%
Republican...................................................... 70%
Independent/Other.......................................... 26%
Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 49%
Older than 65.................................................. 25%
Q20 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes.................................................................. 24%
No ................................................................... 76%
Q21 Area Code
231.................................................................. 11%
248.................................................................. 12%
269.................................................................. 10%
313.................................................................. 3%
517.................................................................. 8%
586.................................................................. 6%
616.................................................................. 15%
734.................................................................. 10%
810.................................................................. 5%
907.................................................................. 2%
989.................................................................. 17%
Liberals and independents will hate Santorum based on his moral stance and I an not enthused on his big government stance.
IMO, Santorum is peaking too soon.
God help us, I hope you’re right.
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