Posted on 02/10/2012 10:37:23 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Remember the "electability" argument? Conservatives need Mitt Romney, the argument goes, in order to compete against Barack Obama in the general election. However, the latest Rasmussen tracking poll on head-to-head results shows Romney trailing Obama by ten points -- while Rick Santorum comes within four:
In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president attracts 50% of the vote and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 40% (see tracking history). This is the largest lead the president has enjoyed against Romney in regular polling going back more than a year. It’s also the first time that the president has reached the 50% level of support against Romney.
Rick Santorum now trails the president by four percentage points, 46% to 42%. Rasmussen Reports will now be tracking the Obama-Santorum race on a daily basis. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Last week, Santorum had a one-point advantage over Obama. However, like Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich before him, Santorum was unable to sustain that advantage beyond a single poll.
In the crucial swing state of Ohio, Santorum is now even with the president. Romney trails by four. Democrat Sherrod Brown has a modest lead in the Ohio Senate race. Rasmussen Reports will release new data on the race for president in Florida at noon Eastern today.
Scott Rasmussen’s weekly column looks at the political impact of Obama’s decision to impose a health-insurance mandate on religious organizations, and concludes that Obama’s electability might be a moot point anyway:
The Obama administration recently ruled that all insurance policies must offer contraceptive services with no co-payments required. In and of itself, that decision is neither positive nor negative. Forty-three percent of voters favor it, while 46 percent are opposed.
That mandate violates the beliefs of some churches. Normally, religious exemptions are granted in such cases, but not this time. Thirty-nine percent support the administration on this point, while 50 percent are opposed. Even worse for the White House, support for the ruling comes primarily from people who rarely attend church. That’s a group that voted strongly for Obama in 2008 and continues to support him today. In other words, no upside.
But, among Catholics, only 28 percent believe religious organizations should be required to implement rules that conflict with church doctrine. Sixty-five percent are opposed. This is true even though many Catholics disagree with church teachings on birth control.
The impact is stunning since 54 percent of Catholics voted for President Obama in 2008. Today, just 39 percent of Catholic voters approve of the way he’s doing his job.
Perhaps some strategists thought that Catholics would welcome government help in battling the church on birth control. But Catholics who disagree with the church deal with the situation in the privacy of their own bedroom. They don’t need federal help. In fact, it is hard to imagine any person of faith wanting the federal government to have any say in church doctrine and how Holy Scripture should be applied.
The last couple of weeks have been a near-perfect storm for Santorum, who has tried to campaign primarily on economic and national-security issues. Now, suddenly, Barack Obama has validated the culture war with his attack on religious conscience, and Santorum has the best position from which to lead a counter-attack. He speaks the language much more fluently and with more passion than Romney, and Republicans looking for a champion in this fight will start naturally looking for Santorum.
The Ohio results should be even more concerning for Obama and Romney. Santorum is speaking to the voters that Obama lost in the 2008 primaries but won in the 2008 election as a supposedly reasonable moderate. Ohio will be a tough state for Republicans to carry in the general election this year, but it will be absolutely critical to their White House hopes. If Santorum maintains this momentum, it’s quite possible that the electability argument will begin to favor Santorum rather than Romney, especially if the Obama administration fails to retreat on the HHS mandate.
Geez...just when I was beginning to believe the Gingrich guys when they said that Rick wasn’t electable! ;-) NOT!
I bet that, once the checks clear, a whole bunch of boys and girls will come out of the woodwork and accuse RS of various kinds of sexual misconduct.
High time to make Mittens speak out about the contraceptive issue. We have a right to know what he thinks about it and how Romneycare handles it. Or does it?
Haven’t you heard him from the Romneycare days in those ads?
Can this be a "miracle?" The miracle that people can actually see now for themselves who is actually "better" (in their opinion) and stick to their "convictions?"... w/o being swayed by any kind of media or know-it-alls opinions?...
Well... there is hope! :)... CONGRATULATIONS People!
Politicians are not "saints" and social-conservatives should not look for one (remember Carter?...), but yes, character, convictions and the way they conduct their own lives... should matter to a point!... That is why I forgave Newt or GWB on their past indiscretions... etc etc..
I believe that both Reagan and Clinton were WAY BEHIND Carter and Papa Bush respectively at this point in time in the election cycle. But by how much?
Santorum, at close to just 4 points of Obama seems to be doing better than Reagan and Clinton did ( believe Reagan and Clinton were WAY BEHIND by double digits then ).
I believe that both Reagan and Clinton were WAY BEHIND Carter and Papa Bush respectively at this point in time in the election cycle. But by how much?
Santorum, at close to just 4 points of Obama seems to be doing better than Reagan and Clinton did ( believe Reagan and Clinton were WAY BEHIND by double digits then ).
Things are not moving in Romney’s direction. His momentum has been halted, first by Gingrich, then by Santorum. He’s looking less and less electable. Maine, Arizona and Michigan will be the next tests.
RINOs: vote for Romney because he can win!
Rasmussen: Romney can’t win. But Santorum can
RINOs: No! Anything but that!!!
If it comes down to a close (and potentialy contested) vote tally this November, it’s game over - the incumbent will be re-elected.
No one should read any "hope" into this polling.
The caucus "wins" could easily be an effort to prop up the establishment's sock puppet "conservative" to split the non-Romney fund raising.
Does he win AZ, MI, TN, etc... ?
Show me a poll where Santorum leads Obama in his home state of PA, and we’ll talk.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Obama (D) | Santorum (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 1/12 - 2/9 | -- | 50.1 | 40.3 | Obama +9.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/7 - 2/9 | 1500 LV | 46 | 42 | Obama +4 |
| FOX News | 2/6 - 2/9 | 1110 RV | 50 | 38 | Obama +12 |
| USA Today/Gallup | 1/27 - 1/28 | 907 RV | 51 | 43 | Obama +8 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 1/22 - 1/24 | RV | 53 | 38 | Obama +15 |
| PPP (D) | 1/13 - 1/16 | 700 RV | 50 | 42 | Obama +8 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 1/12 - 1/16 | 1021 RV | 49 | 38 | Obama +11 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 1/12 - 1/15 | RV | 52 | 41 | Obama +11 |
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_780699.html
Alone among the four Republican hopefuls, Romney was about even with Obama, with 45 percent to the president’s 43 percent, in a head-to-head matchup in a poll of 800 Republicans and Democrats in Pennsylvania. Against Santorum, Obama was slightly ahead, 47 percent to 43 percent, among that group in the poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percent.
Lynne Rockwell, 48, a Republican from Bucks County, called Santorum's conservative positions in foreign policy and government spending his strongest selling points.
"I think a lot of people didn't know about him, but now he's getting the traction he needs. We need someone to get rid of Obamacare. My company is going to get rid of health care in 2014 because it's cheaper to pay the penalty and abandon health care than it is to offer it under Obamacare," said Rockwell, a claims adjuster.
Lynne Rockwell, 48, a Republican from Bucks County, called Santorum's conservative positions in foreign policy and government spending his strongest selling points.
"I think a lot of people didn't know about him, but now he's getting the traction he needs. We need someone to get rid of Obamacare. My company is going to get rid of health care in 2014 because it's cheaper to pay the penalty and abandon health care than it is to offer it under Obamacare," said Rockwell, a claims adjuster.
There are none, that’s my point.
Such a poll would be an indicator of his real electability, since losing PA would make an Obama win damn near impossible.
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