Posted on 02/09/2012 6:01:07 AM PST by Lakeshark
But now we have to consider that Santorum has won Iowa and Minnesota in the Midwest, and won Colorado largely on the strength of his showing in eastern Colorado (which is basically the Great Plains). He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern -- but Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot there. For now at least, he is the "anti-Romney" in the Midwest.
If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.
**snip**
The key is that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can begin to do so well that the other drops out. Both must remain effectively regional candidates. If Gingrich’s support collapses in the South, it might leave an opening there for Santorum. We’ve seen some potential evidence of this, as Gingrich’s support in Gallup’s tracking poll is down about seven points since the Florida primary (although it isn’t down in the wake of Santorum’s wins Tuesday night). If that were to occur, we would be back to a two-person race.
**snip**
The path to this outcome is still a very narrow, precarious one. But for the first time, I can see it.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I don’t care if there is a clear winner or it gets brokered.
Either way we get a conservative and Mutt gets swamped.
If he's talking Republican primaries he may have a point.
Kansas City and St. Louis and Columbia are not exactly the center-of-mass of Republican primary votes. Places like Springfield are, along with rural voters and (to be fair) a significant portion of suburban voters outside the major cities.
Missouri has been known for decades as being a mix of northern and southern, eastern and western, rural and urban voters, and therefore a microcosm of the national electorate. As the state has shifted rightward, the Republican Party primaries have shifted much more dramatically toward a southern and rural electorate.
And yes, I do live here in Missouri.
I would hold my nose and vote for anybody to get rid of Obama. But first, my brother, who is even more conservative than me and worked for the RNC for years (so he knows Romney and his people personally), told me he would leave the top line blank before he would vote for that snake Romney. Then last night, I was talking to a friend in Connecticut, and she said she hadn’t voted for a Democrat in 20 years, but if Romney was the nominee, she would protest by voting for Obama. And she can’t stand Obama! So where the heck is all this electability of Romney’s that I keep hearing about? I think it’s like Brer Rabbit and the briar patch: the White House is saying, “Oh please, don’t make us run against Mitt Romney! He’s the only Republican we can’t beat, so pleeeeeease don’t put him up against us!”
See eighteen. Also ask your local talk radio stations to have her as a guest. Shame Hannity hasn’t. Maybe he doesn’t know about her....hint.
Your math is impeccable.
Santorum is not a reliable conservative on economic/fiscal issues. He’s a big government “compassionate conservative” ala George W Bush. No thank you.
In addition to that, Santorum is up to his usual incompetent political speed. He has absolutely no clear economic plan, would not know how to even begin to approach it and he is not even close to being fiscally conservative or a Washington Outsider like he has his Lemming supporters convinced he is.
I’ve been hearing about that book. You know the Obama Boys are just waiting for Romney to be the nominee and then they will blow him out of the water ... they’ve got enough ammo without using the religion card in my opinion, but they’ll use it to make sure Romney is utterly destroyed. Mitt’s big bucks won’t save him in the national election & he’s got his head in the sand (nicer turn of phrase than what I’d like to say) if he thinks otherwise. The Mormon vs. the Muslim .... if the survival of the country weren’t at stake, I’d almost like to see them have at each other.
I'm sure you believe that but it's based on the premise that Santorum & Gingrich are splitting the anti-Romney/Paul vote and if one dropped out the other would unite that opposition. Polling says that belief is demonstrably unfounded.
An easy example: if Santorum had dropped out after Florida, Romney would have won Colorado and Missouri (at least) because Newt couldn't pull the kind of support in the Midwest that Santorum can. Likewise, there's a certain affinity for Gingrich in the South that Santorum (so far) has not shown.
It's a delicate balance and one that can work against conservatives in select states, but as long as we're dealing with proportional allocation a 4-way split is clearly preferable. Maybe one candidate should drop out in late March, but that's a long way away.
RINO Rick can no longer skulk in the background and take potshots at Newt when Newt is clearly out gunned financially. Newt always seems to gain during times like this.
Santorum is not perfect but he and Gingrich are very close in terms of fiscal issues - earmarks, balanced budget amendment, tax reform, Medicare Part D. One could argue that Santorum's platform for aggressive entitlement reform and Newt's attack on Ryan's entitlement reform makes Santorum far superior - but let's say they're on the same page generally. If you oppose Santorum for fiscal reasons, you oppose Gingrich as well.
That leaves favoring a brokered convention - which involves both Santorum & Gingrich succeeding in the primaries - or Mitt, or Ron Paul. Which do you prefer?
Rino Rick?
Someone forget a sarcasm tag?
I don’t know about you, but I remember President Reagan. I remember understanding he was principled, and at the time that made me a little nervous because of what an actual conflict with the Soviet Union would have meant.
Reagan was the greatest president in our nation’s history.
Now, I get that very same gut, about Santorum.
He’s the first politician who I’ve thought that about, since Reagan.
Santorum is no Rino.
Lots of folks in VA, given only two choices on the primary ballot (Romney or Paul) are voting Paul.
To beat Romney, it makes sense if Santorum concentrates on Michigan - where he's stronger - and Newt on Arizona, where he's stronger.
Michigan is Winner-Take-All by Congressional District - so if Mitt won 35% to 34% in every district he would win nearly all the delegates; at-large delegates are split proportionally.
Realistically, (IMO) Newt has no chance to win more than 1 or 2 delegates in Michigan, so he's trying for Arizona which is true winner-take-all.
I understand your concern about Newt and Santorum splitting, but what are you going to be able to do about it? Which one is going to drop out?
You know.. one potentially GOOD thing about changing candidates at the convention would be: ALL the research and ads that the Dems have prepared sliming each of the Rep leaders would become instantly worthless... They would really have to scramble to get the mud prepared for slinging if we changed our nominee at the last second.
But... it’s a pipe dream. I have about as much chance of playing QB for the Packers next year.
LOL! just go to St Louis or Kansas City and claim that Mo is more southern. I am from the south and moved to MO..believe me this state is far from southern.
I do believe we will know more after super tuesday. In the meantime..Santorum has recieved a free pass from the other candidates, the media and NO super pac attacks either. Wait until he is vetted which will happen soon. He is no conservative imo.
GO NEWT!
Thanks for the input. Answered some questions for me. Thanks again.
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