Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges

Real Clear Politics ^ | 2/9/12 | Sean Trende

[Lakeshark]

But now we have to consider that Santorum has won Iowa and Minnesota in the Midwest, and won Colorado largely on the strength of his showing in eastern Colorado (which is basically the Great Plains). He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern -- but Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot there. For now at least, he is the "anti-Romney" in the Midwest.

If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.
**snip**
The key is that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can begin to do so well that the other drops out. Both must remain effectively regional candidates. If Gingrich’s support collapses in the South, it might leave an opening there for Santorum. We’ve seen some potential evidence of this, as Gingrich’s support in Gallup’s tracking poll is down about seven points since the Florida primary (although it isn’t down in the wake of Santorum’s wins Tuesday night). If that were to occur, we would be back to a two-person race.
**snip**
The path to this outcome is still a very narrow, precarious one. But for the first time, I can see it.

[Lakeshark]

This is a worthwhile article to read, Santorum and Nedwt supporters, note that the author claims that both have to stay viable for Romney to be whupped. What does everyone here think about how this is shaping up?

[Lakeshark]

Guh. Nedwt Newt

*need more coffee*

[kindred]

I can only hope that the conservative Santorum wins so that conservative views can be upheld in the current evil communist run DC.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Palin 2012.

[Diogenesis]

The PEOPLE should just remove the RINOs by vote.

There will be no need for Brokers or Romney.

[Lakeshark]

Fact: Santorum's lifetime ACU rating is 80.

Fact: Newt's lifetime ACU rating is 89.

Y'all need to get over yourselves and listen, it seems that both are necessary to be viable to take Mitt down.

[Diogenesis]

The PEOPLE should just remove the RINOs by vote.

There will be no need for Brokers or Romney.

[Lakeshark]

Don't we wish.......

[MissMagnolia]

It’s looking more like “Not-Romney” as this thing winds out and that is great news. There is no doubt in my mind that Romney would lose to Obama.

[Lakeshark]

A long shot, but yeah, that would be great.

It's more likely that Newt and Rick will cut some kind of deal, or *gasp* Ron Paul would be the kingmaker.

[joe fonebone]

I will try and present this in a mathematical formula.............. brokered convention = party bigwigs in the back room smoking cigars = mcromney as the nominee...............

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

This whole primary season, reminds me of a herd of Lemmings, stampeding back and forth on the deck of the Titanic, in hopes of jumping off into the Ocean on the “most perfect and correct” side of the ship as it slips beneath the surface.

[11th Commandment]

He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern

STOP THERE That statement alone disqualifies the author from any intelligent analysis.

[Sooth2222]

Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!

[Lakeshark]

I believe the likely procedural possibility would be a Newt/Santorum alliance for one of them, providing neither one gets bought by Romney. I doubt this will be the old idea of bigwigs in the back room, the rules don't favor that at all.

[CASchack]

If this is the best way to stop Romney, I’m for it.

[Vendome]

I don’t care if there is a clear winner or it gets brokered.

Either way we get a conservative and Mutt gets swamped.

[hoosiermama]

Trisha Erikson (sp) has written a book that is being discussed on some local talk radio stations. It will take Romney down. Just depends if we want it to be now or in the fall, leaving Obama as the winner.

Her credentials are impeccable: Political background and experience plus her father was a Bishop just like Romney.

The book is available in paperback from Amazon. Some freepers have bought multiple copies to share with their communities.

Expect the MSM to pick her up as a guest in the fall.

Book is titled: “Can Mitt Romney Serve Two Masters”.

[catman67]

I think a lot of people want a brokered convention which will result in a “fresh face” candidate.

I think that the depressed primary poll numbers is, in fact, a vote for “none of the above”!

[samtheman]

Here’s the thing about a split vote:

In many states, even those with proportional delegate counts, a split vote doesn’t necessarily translate into the same split in the delegate count.

Of course in a winner-take-all primary the obvious happens: a 35-30-25-10 outcome awards ALL the delegates to the guy who got the 35.

But even in a proportional state, a 35-30-25-10 outcome can result in a huge disparity between the number of delegates that the #1 guy gets and the number of delegates that the #2 guy gets.

No matter how you spin it (and I’ve read so much spin on this subject lately that I have to keep a barf-bag handy) Gingrich and Santorum both remaining in the race gives Romney a huge boost. Period.

All other statements on the subject are complete 100% total BS.

Romney vs. Gingrich+Santorum = Romney Wins. Period.

Romney vs. Gingrich, or Romney vs. Santorum, means that Romney loses.

But conservatives are stupid. We can’t coalesce behind a single candidate. Instead, we congratulate ourselves on having two conservative alternatives... while handing the race to Romney.

Romney must really, really be laughing at us. Really laughing hard.

We. Are. Stupid.