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Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges
Real Clear Politics ^ | 2/9/12 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/09/2012 6:01:07 AM PST by Lakeshark

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To: Lakeshark

I don’t care if there is a clear winner or it gets brokered.

Either way we get a conservative and Mutt gets swamped.


21 posted on 02/09/2012 6:29:32 AM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: 11th Commandment
13 posted on Thursday, February 09, 2012 8:21:02 AM by 11th Commandment: “He also won Missouri — which is culturally more southern than Midwestern STOP THERE That statement alone disqualifies the author from any intelligent analysis.”

If he's talking Republican primaries he may have a point.

Kansas City and St. Louis and Columbia are not exactly the center-of-mass of Republican primary votes. Places like Springfield are, along with rural voters and (to be fair) a significant portion of suburban voters outside the major cities.

Missouri has been known for decades as being a mix of northern and southern, eastern and western, rural and urban voters, and therefore a microcosm of the national electorate. As the state has shifted rightward, the Republican Party primaries have shifted much more dramatically toward a southern and rural electorate.

And yes, I do live here in Missouri.

22 posted on 02/09/2012 6:30:15 AM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: Lakeshark

I would hold my nose and vote for anybody to get rid of Obama. But first, my brother, who is even more conservative than me and worked for the RNC for years (so he knows Romney and his people personally), told me he would leave the top line blank before he would vote for that snake Romney. Then last night, I was talking to a friend in Connecticut, and she said she hadn’t voted for a Democrat in 20 years, but if Romney was the nominee, she would protest by voting for Obama. And she can’t stand Obama! So where the heck is all this electability of Romney’s that I keep hearing about? I think it’s like Brer Rabbit and the briar patch: the White House is saying, “Oh please, don’t make us run against Mitt Romney! He’s the only Republican we can’t beat, so pleeeeeease don’t put him up against us!”


23 posted on 02/09/2012 6:31:47 AM PST by HHFi
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To: samtheman; Diogenesis; All

See eighteen. Also ask your local talk radio stations to have her as a guest. Shame Hannity hasn’t. Maybe he doesn’t know about her....hint.


24 posted on 02/09/2012 6:35:36 AM PST by hoosiermama (Stand with God and Sarah, the Gipper and Newt will be standing next to you.)
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To: joe fonebone
brokered convention = party bigwigs in the back room smoking cigars = mcromney as the nominee...............

Your math is impeccable.

25 posted on 02/09/2012 6:38:02 AM PST by Lazamataz (Yes, I am THAT Conservative.)
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To: kindred

Santorum is not a reliable conservative on economic/fiscal issues. He’s a big government “compassionate conservative” ala George W Bush. No thank you.


26 posted on 02/09/2012 6:39:45 AM PST by St. Louis Conservative
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To: samtheman
See # 12,

In addition to that, Santorum is up to his usual incompetent political speed. He has absolutely no clear economic plan, would not know how to even begin to approach it and he is not even close to being fiscally conservative or a Washington Outsider like he has his Lemming supporters convinced he is.

27 posted on 02/09/2012 6:42:51 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: hoosiermama

I’ve been hearing about that book. You know the Obama Boys are just waiting for Romney to be the nominee and then they will blow him out of the water ... they’ve got enough ammo without using the religion card in my opinion, but they’ll use it to make sure Romney is utterly destroyed. Mitt’s big bucks won’t save him in the national election & he’s got his head in the sand (nicer turn of phrase than what I’d like to say) if he thinks otherwise. The Mormon vs. the Muslim .... if the survival of the country weren’t at stake, I’d almost like to see them have at each other.


28 posted on 02/09/2012 6:43:51 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: samtheman
No matter how you spin it (and I’ve read so much spin on this subject lately that I have to keep a barf-bag handy) Gingrich and Santorum both remaining in the race gives Romney a huge boost. Period.

I'm sure you believe that but it's based on the premise that Santorum & Gingrich are splitting the anti-Romney/Paul vote and if one dropped out the other would unite that opposition. Polling says that belief is demonstrably unfounded.

An easy example: if Santorum had dropped out after Florida, Romney would have won Colorado and Missouri (at least) because Newt couldn't pull the kind of support in the Midwest that Santorum can. Likewise, there's a certain affinity for Gingrich in the South that Santorum (so far) has not shown.

It's a delicate balance and one that can work against conservatives in select states, but as long as we're dealing with proportional allocation a 4-way split is clearly preferable. Maybe one candidate should drop out in late March, but that's a long way away.

29 posted on 02/09/2012 6:50:50 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: St. Louis Conservative
This is almost good in a weird sort of way. Because Santorum did well in 3 Midwest states with little to no Delegate gains, it will train the Romney money factory on Santorum, who will now, finally be vetted properly.

RINO Rick can no longer skulk in the background and take potshots at Newt when Newt is clearly out gunned financially. Newt always seems to gain during times like this.

30 posted on 02/09/2012 6:53:30 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: St. Louis Conservative
Santorum is not a reliable conservative on economic/fiscal issues. He’s a big government

Santorum is not perfect but he and Gingrich are very close in terms of fiscal issues - earmarks, balanced budget amendment, tax reform, Medicare Part D. One could argue that Santorum's platform for aggressive entitlement reform and Newt's attack on Ryan's entitlement reform makes Santorum far superior - but let's say they're on the same page generally. If you oppose Santorum for fiscal reasons, you oppose Gingrich as well.

That leaves favoring a brokered convention - which involves both Santorum & Gingrich succeeding in the primaries - or Mitt, or Ron Paul. Which do you prefer?

31 posted on 02/09/2012 6:59:02 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Rino Rick?

Someone forget a sarcasm tag?

I don’t know about you, but I remember President Reagan. I remember understanding he was principled, and at the time that made me a little nervous because of what an actual conflict with the Soviet Union would have meant.

Reagan was the greatest president in our nation’s history.

Now, I get that very same gut, about Santorum.

He’s the first politician who I’ve thought that about, since Reagan.

Santorum is no Rino.


32 posted on 02/09/2012 7:00:25 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (What if Obama isn't the anti-Christ after all? What if it's Romney?...)
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To: MissMagnolia; All
It’s looking more like “Not-Romney” as this thing winds out and that is great news. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ One of RINO-Rom's 3 "home States" (Michigan) is having a Primary before Super Tuesday. Rick Santorum is taking Mitt on in Michigan (Newt is ducking and concentrating on Arizona. I don't know how Newt thinks he's gonna win if he keeps picking and choosing his State contests.) If Santorum beats Mitt in Michigan, (and he just might) that will be the beginning of the end for RINO-Rom. I was on Facebook this a.m. and all my Michigan friends are going for Santorum or Newt; not one is going for Romney.
33 posted on 02/09/2012 7:11:12 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: no dems

Lots of folks in VA, given only two choices on the primary ballot (Romney or Paul) are voting Paul.


34 posted on 02/09/2012 7:13:36 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: no dems
Rick Santorum is taking Mitt on in Michigan (Newt is ducking and concentrating on Arizona. I don't know how Newt thinks he's gonna win if he keeps picking and choosing his State contests.)

To beat Romney, it makes sense if Santorum concentrates on Michigan - where he's stronger - and Newt on Arizona, where he's stronger.

Michigan is Winner-Take-All by Congressional District - so if Mitt won 35% to 34% in every district he would win nearly all the delegates; at-large delegates are split proportionally.

Realistically, (IMO) Newt has no chance to win more than 1 or 2 delegates in Michigan, so he's trying for Arizona which is true winner-take-all.

35 posted on 02/09/2012 7:21:28 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: samtheman
Romney's not laughing, he's pissed. So much money, and he's no longer the inevitable candidate, the best he can get is a three way split.

I understand your concern about Newt and Santorum splitting, but what are you going to be able to do about it? Which one is going to drop out?

36 posted on 02/09/2012 7:23:49 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Lakeshark

You know.. one potentially GOOD thing about changing candidates at the convention would be: ALL the research and ads that the Dems have prepared sliming each of the Rep leaders would become instantly worthless... They would really have to scramble to get the mud prepared for slinging if we changed our nominee at the last second.

But... it’s a pipe dream. I have about as much chance of playing QB for the Packers next year.


37 posted on 02/09/2012 7:26:51 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: 11th Commandment

LOL! just go to St Louis or Kansas City and claim that Mo is more southern. I am from the south and moved to MO..believe me this state is far from southern.
I do believe we will know more after super tuesday. In the meantime..Santorum has recieved a free pass from the other candidates, the media and NO super pac attacks either. Wait until he is vetted which will happen soon. He is no conservative imo.

GO NEWT!


38 posted on 02/09/2012 8:05:23 AM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Lakeshark; All
I read the entire article. A Brokered Convention sounds exciting but this is a concern about a BC if someone, not currently running, gets the nod:

The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.
And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s.


The last Dem BC was in 1952 when they nominated Gov. Adlai Stevenson of IL. The last GOP BC was 1940 when they nominated Wendell Wilkie. THEY BOTH LOST.
39 posted on 02/09/2012 8:49:32 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: RygelXVI

Thanks for the input. Answered some questions for me. Thanks again.


40 posted on 02/09/2012 9:12:04 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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