Posted on 01/11/2012 7:47:12 PM PST by VinL
ATLANTA -- As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party's chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it's also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state's political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina's GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
I predict Perry and Santorum both will endorse Romney, two sellouts like Bolton. To paraphrase Sara, “Do they think we are all numb skulls out here?” Perry and Santorum don’t have a ghost of a chance, but are pulling votes from Newt. SC voters will see through this. ABR= Anybody but Romney.
Go Newt!!
If Santorum OR Newt endorse Romneym it’s all over.
If Santorum OR Newt endorse Romney, it’s all over.
“All this wailing for somebody to drop out (usually Perry) is nothing but silly whining.”
If he wasn’t playing the role of Mr. Single Digit in the polls, no one would be naming him as the first to drop out.
As it is, I cannot understand why he or Hunstman are still in this race. Well, Huntsman DID take third in NH. What has been Perrys best showing in either Iowa or New Hampshire?
Is he polling any better than that for the upcoming S. Carolina vote?
Tell, ya, we’d better watch Ron Paul. If he doesn’t get the nom, his punky little supporters are going to run, not walk to Obama if Paul doesn’t go third party. They could be the true spoilers in the general.
I hope whomever gets the GOP nom has a strategy for them.
Rand Paul as VP ought to do it. It will keep that old kook from going third party and keep his supporters who would normally be busily debating Austrian economics or the melting point of steel girders and attending Neo-Nazi meetings in between hits off the cummunal bong to bother voting GOP in November.
Lets face it, whomever is the G.O.P. nominee is going to need some passion behind the ticket. Romney/Christie will lose in a landslide reminiscent of 1984.
A Paul on the ticket keeps those pot heads behind the G.O.P. for probably decades. At least until they get distracted by their toes or Sponge Bob.
Well, I would suggest to you that both Perry and Huntsman are still in because they think they have a chance and think they are the best people for the job.
It may be an outside chance, but it is a chance.
I see no virtue in WHINING for somebody to drop out.
It is up to your candidate, whoever it is, to drop the others out by winning himself.
The implication that Perry is somehow hurting anybody’s candidate by staying in is stupid. You don’t know where his votes would go or who he’d endorse.
When I see someone posting that Perry should drop out, it turns me into the Incredible Hulk or maybe Newt and I lash back by dissing on the other candidates.
I don’t exactly mean to do that, but I do it.
Because the other candidates do have serious flaws and it bugs the heck out of me that only a few people realize that Rick Perry is the best candidate and the most able to beat Obama.
Have to agree with you on Ron Paul. But remember in these early primaries and cauki, a lot of dems are voting along with his little core of crazed supporters.
The only thing I fear is that his early success will convince him he has a chance to the extent that he will go third party.
That would cinch it for Obama in a close election.
But maybe he will care enough about his son to decide not to do that.
Ron Paul has the most fanboys, people who are enthusiastically with him from the beginning, so they tend to dominate the early rounds. But they quickly fade as the mainstream begins to pay attention.
I’m sorry but if Rick Perry really was the best candidate, it would show in the caucus and primaries, heck even the polls.
He’s not the best candidate in a year when voters are looking for someone that TALKS a good game. First impressions mean a lot and the first impression that we got of Rick wasn’t pretty.
We moved on.
(I WILL give this; he’d make the best President of all of them, he’s just a horrible candidate)
I believe that Ron Paul cares about his son and would not run third party if Rand were on the G.O.P. ticket.
“If Santorum OR Newt endorse Romney, it’s all over.”
I trust you meant Perry, not Newt. I wouldn’t put it past Santorum to endorse Romney (hope not, but...), though I think Perry will go with Newt. Now, just because Santorum may endorse Romney doesn’t mean his supporters will - in fact, I’d think they wouldn’t but instead go with Newt.
Guess you saw where DeMint’s staff members (some of them) endorse Romney, but DeMint himself does not. However, he said what we’d all better - he’ll support ANY one who ends up going up against BHO.
First order of business - get b. hussein obama O-U-T.
Also go after more House members and regaining Senate - I hope and pray the Tea Party will be active in that again.
Okay.
I think his early (well, his first) debate formed a negative opinion of him that was hard to shake.
But evil forces had been conspiring against him before that because he is the one they fear. :)
Another reason I think he should stay in though is that by staying in, he still has influence.
Not running or dropping out and you’re off the radar completely.
Does anyone really care what Palin, Cain or Bachmann are staing these day? The media doesn’t.
Perry right now is raising a big stink about Romney and his vulture capitalism. Perry can do this because he has a sterling record as being business friendly and Rush should know this.
He is helping Gingrich because Gingrich is not left as the only person to bring this up.
If Perry can’t make it, I’m for Newt and by staying in, Perry does help Newt.
“However, he said what we’d all better - he’ll support ANY one who ends up going up against BHO.”
I’ve gone back and forth on this. On the one hand, the only difference between Romney and Obama is pigment. So no, I wouldn’t vote for POTUS this year.
On the other hand, Romney COULD pick a TEA Party VP, one that I’ve already mentioned (Rand Paul) and I would then probably volunteer for, donate to and vote for that ticket.
Because elevating Rand to VP gives us hope for the future of not just the G.O.P. but the nation.
His Dads’ a kook but I like Rand a LOT.
I don’t agree.
Romney is not nearly as bad as Obama. You only think that because we’re in the primary season and ...
I don’t think Romney is even as bad as McCain.
I will vote for the nominee.
“Does anyone really care what Palin, Cain or Bachmann are staing these day?”
The first two yes, the last one, no.
“Perry right now is raising a big stink about Romney and his vulture capitalism.”
Smacks of “me-tooism,” following Newts’ lead.
I like that you have a backup candidate, Newt is my backup as well. It shows depth and breadth of thought in these primaries rather than emotion.
What part of “ObamaCare = RomneyCare = CommieCare. NO Romney! NO WAY!!” do you not understand?
I’m sorry but both are gun-grabbing social liberals in my eyes. So yes, they are both horrible, horrible people that should never be allowed near the levers of power.
But with the right VP...I could support a G.O.P. ticket with Romney at the head.
The Bain stuff did NOT back fire. The proof was in the NH pudding. Mitty was supposed to hit 50%. He did not.
Really? Are you interested in Bashing Companies that do what Bain Capital does? Do they do a service? I think they do. Sometimes they save the company and sometimes they can’t!
The proof was in the NH pudding. Mitty was supposed to hit 50%. He did not.
The Actual poll showed Romney at 43% he got 40%!!!
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