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CNN Iowa poll: Romney 25, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 14
HotAir ^ | 12/28/2011 | ALLAHPUNDIT

Posted on 12/28/2011 2:29:52 PM PST by TBBT

You know who this benefits?

*snip*

So there’s the long-awaited Santorum surge among social cons, who are finally giving him a first look at the perfect moment after flirtations this fall with Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. Two caveats, though, one minor and one major. The minor: PPP’s poll published this morning found Santorum stuck at 10 percent, still behind Gingrich and Bachmann. Are their numbers the outlier or are CNN’s? The major: According to the crosstabs, CNN only polled … registered Republicans in Iowa. That means they’re badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: newt
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Update: WaPo quantifies the flaw in CNN’s poll: “in early Dec. Post-ABC Iowa poll, registerd GOP were 83% of potential caucusgoers, with Paul about 2X better among non-Reps.” And PPP notes that if they made CNN’s sample mistake, they’d also have had Romney ahead of Paul.

*snip*

Philip Klein also imagines Romney gleefully rubbing his hands at the new dynamic. Santorum’s been following the same underpants-gnome strategy in Iowa as Huntsman has in New Hampshire:

Step one: Camp out there and become the de facto hometown favorite/Not Romney

Step two: Win

Step three: ????

Step four: Nominee!

Step three, I guess, is “momentum,” but momentum works a lot better when you have money and organization to help carry it forward.

*snip*

You know who this benefits?

Romney.

1 posted on 12/28/2011 2:29:56 PM PST by TBBT
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To: TBBT
Anyone got a in with NASA, I think now would be a good time to redirect an asteroid....
2 posted on 12/28/2011 2:31:43 PM PST by ejonesie22 (8/30/10, the day Truth won.)
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To: TBBT

Whoa Santorum. 16%. You go guy...


3 posted on 12/28/2011 2:32:33 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Santorum..., are you giving it some thought? I knew you would.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Little ray of sunshine...


4 posted on 12/28/2011 2:33:19 PM PST by ejonesie22 (8/30/10, the day Truth won.)
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To: TBBT

Can’t wait to get the voting started. Let’s go.


5 posted on 12/28/2011 2:34:24 PM PST by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: TBBT

If not Santorum, it will be Romney. lol (where have I heard an ultimatum like this before?)

Finally, a decent coservative I don’t have to hold my nose and vomit before pulling the lever for.

The SoCons in IA will see the CNN split, get scared, and rally behind one or two of the real conservatives.


6 posted on 12/28/2011 2:36:13 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: TBBT
Santorum couldn't win a national election. All he can do is clear a path to the nomination for Mitt. Santorum has spent his entire campaign in Iowa he has no ground game in any other state, will not be able to capitalize on any expected benefit from a top three finish in any other state, is taking votes from the only two conservatives with a chance of winning the nomination Gingrich and Perry.

Santorum is in it for himself.
7 posted on 12/28/2011 2:37:05 PM PST by Sudetenland (Anybody but Obama!!!!)
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To: Sudetenland

whatever

people will notice him if he wins iowa. Winning in iowa is more publicity than any amount of campaigning he can do in any state.


8 posted on 12/28/2011 2:41:30 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: Sudetenland
Santorum couldn't win a national election. All he can do is clear a path to the nomination for Mitt. Santorum has spent his entire campaign in Iowa he has no ground game in any other state, will not be able to capitalize on any expected benefit from a top three finish in any other state, is taking votes from the only two conservatives with a chance of winning the nomination Gingrich and Perry. Santorum is in it for himself.
That is a fact. But why let facts get in the way?

You'll not convince the second tier hopefuls. They will cling on to any ray of hope no matter how dubious.

History is about to repeat itself (re. 2008). The conservatives will continue to remain split - holding out for one non-viable candidate or another - and Romney will walk away with it.

There will be crying and recriminations galore. But, they won't be able to say that they were not told...
9 posted on 12/28/2011 2:45:56 PM PST by TBBT
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To: mamelukesabre

I WISH Conservatives weren’t splitting their vote. That is the ONLY thing that will nominate RINO Romney.

Santorum’s surge provides me with a little hope where I had none.


10 posted on 12/28/2011 2:46:32 PM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: TBBT
An Iowa constituent....

"Blah Blah Blah..."

11 posted on 12/28/2011 2:48:51 PM PST by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: mamelukesabre

“people will notice him if he wins iowa. Winning in iowa is more publicity than any amount of campaigning he can do in any state.”

Just like nominees with momentum:

Mike Huckabee

Or Pat Buchanan

Or Pat Robertson

Or George Bush in 1980?

It’s a state of saps playing to the tune of the MSM, all the while Rick’s FR supporters are grateful for the manufactured “surge”....as well as Romney.


12 posted on 12/28/2011 2:50:10 PM PST by VanDeKoik (1 million in stimulus dollars paid for this tagline!)
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To: TBBT
Romney's numbers remain unchanged. This doesn't help him a bit. And three months from now, Romney will still be polling at 25%.

The only thing this shows is that Newt Gingrich is falling like a rock, as well he should be. And for those unable to cope with that basic fact, they fall into the delusion that this somehow benefits Romney. It doesn't. However, it does benefit candidates who are actually conservative. Imagine that.

13 posted on 12/28/2011 2:52:20 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: Sudetenland

Santorum has also spent a lot of time in New Hampshire and South Carolina.


14 posted on 12/28/2011 2:54:06 PM PST by Engraved-on-His-hands
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To: TBBT
Wouldn't you think that by now Willard would feel a bit self conscious about the number 25? Won't all of these people have the smirks wiped off their faces when Willard and Nikki get their heads handed to them in in South Carolina?
15 posted on 12/28/2011 2:54:22 PM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: TBBT
History is about to repeat itself (re. 2008). The conservatives will continue to remain split - holding out for one non-viable candidate or another - and Romney will walk away with it.

Romney walked away with it in 2008? Gee, the things you learn here on Free Republic.

16 posted on 12/28/2011 2:55:19 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: TBBT

I don’t see any similarities between this election and the last republican primary. You are full of it.


17 posted on 12/28/2011 3:01:54 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: Hoodat

winner winner chicken dinner


18 posted on 12/28/2011 3:03:11 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: Sudetenland

Beyond the fact Santorum is absolutely DESPISED by the major media.

And by “Despised, I mean actual, spitting, vehement HATE, on a scale that would astound you, if you walked in to a major media newsroom.


19 posted on 12/28/2011 3:05:05 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: TBBT

I’m glad to see Santorum rising and hope it continues. He’s invested the time, and his heart and soul and his conservative credentials are, IMHO, better than Romney, Gingrich or Paul.


20 posted on 12/28/2011 3:06:15 PM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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