Posted on 12/23/2011 7:46:44 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Disillusion with the current field of Republican presidential candidates, combined with an increase in the number of states using proportional representation, has led some Republicans to talk more about the possibility of having a brokered convention. How likely is it that no candidate will have a majority of delegates by the time the Republican convention starts? Not very likely, a political science professor tells The Christian Post.
There is currently no clear frontrunner in the GOP race. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has remained at a steady 20 to 25 percent, while other candidates have risen and fallen throughout the race. Moreover, the Republican National Committee now requires state with primaries before April 1 to assign their delegates proportionally, rather than through a winner-take-all system.
Combined, these two factors have led some to speculate that no single candidate will have a majority of delegates after all the states have voted. This would mean that the delegates would have to pick a candidate at the convention.
If no candidate has a majority after the first vote, delegates – who are assigned to vote for a particular candidate on the first ballot – would be free to vote for anyone. Some have speculated that, due to dissatisfaction with the current field, someone who has not even campaigned for the position, such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, could emerge as the nominee.
That is not very likely, though, according to Marjorie Hershey, professor of political science at Indiana University, in a Thursday interview with The Christian Post. Hershey specializes in the study of political parties and elections.
While the early primary states switched, or stayed, with proportional representation, there are still many states that have winner-take-all primaries after April 1.
“If things are muddled in the early primaries ... by April, the winner-take-all primaries should probably make the difference one way or another,” Hershey pointed out.
“Winner-take-all primaries tend to build momentum very fast. In 2008, for example ... in Missouri, John McCain had won a plurality in the primary, maybe one percent more than [Mitt] Romney and two percent more than [Mike] Huckabee and, given that it was winner-take-all, he got all the delegates in Missouri.”
“That really has a profound effect, when Huckabee and Romney come out with zero, having come real close in the popular vote. That's pretty devastating. It has a negative effect on volunteers. It has a negative effect on people who are likely to donate money, and, the process speeds up considerably.”
The media, Hershey pointed out, also encourages the quick selection of a candidate. “Reporters are just driven by the nature of their own profession to want to predict who is gonna win, because that generates career rewards and that means that there will be bandwagons.”
This bandwagon effect, in which the media suggests who the eventual nominee will be, impacts candidates ability to raise money, and thus remain in the race. “The people who want to give money and are trying to figure out who is going to win, because they would rather give money to who is going to win ... then the money totals will be reported by reporters, there's a big increase in funding for so-and-so, and things start to build.”
Delegates and party leaders are not even interested in having a brokered convention, Hershey argues, because it would be damaging to the party. Brokered conventions present to the public an image that the party is controlled by elites.
Brokered conventions appear “party leader driven and so-called 'boss driven' and feeds into an image that, although it's completely inaccurate, has been so long lasting in the American public. We're all so convinced that there are party bosses out there, even though there aren't. It's really easy to trigger that image and that's the last thing that the parties want, to have their party appear to be a boss party.”
Considering that there doesn’t seem to be an overwhelming favourite, at this point in time, it seems to be the way it is shaping up.
>>such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, could emerge as the nominee.
Oh please, not another Bush.
Here we go again — not one vote has been cast yet, and the crepe hangers are going at it already.
The pick of Romney will be the death of the GOP and then the death of us all.
Notice how the author studiously avoids mentioning She Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken?
Someone’s been saying this for what, ~3 years now?
Justin Bieber?
For the 1000th time, NO!
Just because we have a bunch of people pouting over their “perfect” candidate not polling at the top. does not mean that we are going to have state after state just tossing votes willy-nilly to whomever for giggles.
After NH, all but maybe 3 people will still be in this. That 3rd person will be out before Super Tuesday.
>>Notice how the author studiously avoids mentioning She Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken?
If you are talking about Palin, imo there is 0% chance she will be handed the nomination during a (potential) brokered nomination...zero percent.
Does anyone really think that the republican establishment is simply going to hand the nomination to someone who was unable or unwilling to even make a go of it on her own?...no way.
NewtRomney would be a death wish for conservatives.
Especially ethanol subsidy lobbyist amnesty hack Newt.
I still hope for stalemate and emergency of a conservative (the one not to be named!).
Bachmann has a chance if she wins IA. In that case, Santorum drops out and Bachmann gets second look. Huck was a singledigit candidate before surprise IA win so there is a chance.
Perry is tolerable but I suspect his recent tough talk on illegals is pandering only. Still, better than Newt.
Depends on what night she addresses the delegates.....
That should be “all except maybe 3 people will still be in this. That 3rd person will be out before Super Tuesday”.
The only reason there would be a brokered convention is because the republican establishment has lost control of the situation.
And if she had entered the race, she would have been smeared the same way Herman Cain was smeared, and idiots like you would say that accusation is the same thing as proof, and she would have been destroyed.
The goal is to win the war, Skippy, not follow your inane script.
Can we draft a candidate? The current choices suck.
>>The goal is to win the war, Skippy, not follow your inane script.
And the path to victory is by paying your dues on the campaign trail, for better or worse, and manage to still be standing at the end of the process.
As much as the process stinks, it gets all (most) of the surprises out before the general election.
Not exactly a mandate is it?
Folks—the first primary has yet to run! This is way too early to even speculate on the Convention. All we have are the Polls produced by the lying MSM and they are not to be trusted. The race hasn’t started yet! I predict many changes are on the way—real surprises we can only speculate upon at this point. issues of war and peace—prosperity or economical collapse? We have a full range of people running—and that will be weeded out by April. Hold on to your hats—its going to be a fun ride. The mud will fly! Don’t sell Obama short—he knows one thing—How to run for office. He’s a dirty campaigner and he’s got the MSM in his back pocket and a billion dollars to spend. Its going to be an uphill battle all the way.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.