[Perdogg]

The problem I have with the polling average is that it treats all samples sizes the same, which they are not. The intial weighing of the data should be done in accordance with sample size.

[RockinRight]

Not liking that Newt line, looks too much like Perry’s...and Romney will be the beneficiary with the little time that’s left.

[Perdogg]

Here is my data. I excluded the ABC poll since the sample size is unknown, therefore cannot be properly weighed.

Gingrich 28.99%

Romney 24.20%

Undecided 13.64%

Paul 10.90%

Bachmann 8.55%

Perry 7.35%

Santorum 3.81%

Huntsman 2.57%

[Huck]

Bye bye Newt.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Wow!

Isn’t it wonderful? Your effort to take Gingrich down is paying off. Just look at those gains for ROmney! You must be overjoyed.

[lonevoice]

RCP national poll averaging 6 polls conducted between 12/8 - 12/18.

Newt - 27.5%
Romney - 24.5%
Paul - 11.8%
Bachmann - 7.5%
Perry - 7.3%
Santorum - 3.7%
Huntsman - 2.3%

Important note: Of the six polls, the two oldest ones had Newt up by 10% and 6%. The three newest ones have Newt and Romney in a statistical tie.

[wardaddy]

RCP averaging poll at this late date does indicate mood and effects of ads and attacks from the dwarfs and Romney.

Newt is in a pickle in that he has none of the cash Romney does and FOX News despises him and is in the tank for Mitt so no help there.

Talk Radio is just standing by.

hence...if Rush and Levin don’t want Romney they should lend a hand.

but the real culprits are the also rans vying for a VP nod.

Bachmann in particular whom I supported once....now behaving rather petty hoping Mitt will choose her but he won’t. He will pick an on the fence big state person who brings electoral votes.

However...the big Mo from the early primaries will effect these polls so we shall see

Gingrich needs money. I suggest anyone who doesn’t want Romney send some.

[Cheerio]

The Past and the Present
Thomas Sowell

[Quicksilver]

Gallup Tracking: Newt 25 (-1), Romney 23 (-1), Paul 12 (+1), Perry 8 (+1), Bachmann 6 (-1), Santorum 4, Huntsman 2, Othgers 2 ...

[TitansAFC]

Newt Ping!

The numbers have settled and appear to be steady for well over a week now, with Newt holding a slight lead over Mitt Romney. Paul hangs a distant third, with everyone else in single digits.

So Newt wins the Tea Party poll,
Wins the Hot Air/Townhall poll,
has massive leads in GA, SC, and FL,
and still leads in national polls.

Newt Gingrich is still LEADING!! Or as the media and GOP Establishment report it: “tanking.”

[TitansAFC]

Does this include today’s PPP poll that was JUST released?

[G Larry]

then there is the matter of “LV”, “RV”, and “A”.....

Likely Voters
Registered Voters
Adults

The latter is the least useful, which is why CNN relies on it to misrepresent Newt’s standing in the polls.

[Mechanicos]

As long as people keep paying attention to them, the polls will keep lying and manipulating. Ignore polls, all of them.

[PapaNew]

Palin’s starting to make noises (again..). Wonder what her line looks like.

[Dysart]

Ed Rollins just predicted Ron Paul win in Iowa.

[maine-iac7]

these CONTROLLED pols can - and do - show anything they want them too - to influence the cote, knowing many people will vote merely on who they are told is winning....

Right up until the results of the vote on election night of Reagan’s win - the pols and the media were all saying the vote was going to go 2 to 1 against Reagan.

Abut a week or so before the election, the Reagan people did a telephone ‘poll’...where anyone could vote - no control. Millions called in -results? 2 to 1 - FOR Reagan.

The media and pundits said the call in vote was invalid - not a “scientific” poll...(Seems like it would more of an indication of people that would be ‘likely voters’ at the poll booths. AND, the media whined: “The rich republicans could afford to call in more times (50 cents) that the ‘poor’ democrats. (I about wore my dialing finger (old rotary phone) to the bone, literally, for 2 1/2 hours before I could get through ONCE.

I SO enjoyed Rather’s face when he had to announce the results of the vote. It WAS 2 to 1, FOR Reagan.

Now - a few days ago, there was a call in vote - and 250,000 (QUARTER OF a MILLION!) and Gingrich won 36.5, Romney 18.8, Bachmann 17.7.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/jonathangarthwaite/2011/12/15/gingrich_wins_townhallhotair_primary_conservatives_still_not_completely_sold_that_gingrich_is_the_last_man_standing

Then Sunday, “taken among 23,000 Tea Party enthusiasts organized by the Tea Party Patriots, one of the nation’s biggest Tea Party organizations, had Gingrich winning with with 31 percent of their vote, registered in a conference call on Sunday night.”

Newt 31%, Bachmann 28%. Romney 20%, Paul 3%

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/gingrich-wins-tea-party/2011/12/19/id/421529

So keep this in mind. These call in, uncontrolled, voting are more indicative of how the votes will go.

Remember this and take heart.