Posted on 12/20/2011 8:08:32 AM PST by South40
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The problem I have with the polling average is that it treats all samples sizes the same, which they are not. The intial weighing of the data should be done in accordance with sample size.
Not liking that Newt line, looks too much like Perry’s...and Romney will be the beneficiary with the little time that’s left.
Bye bye Newt.
“This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone December 15-18 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults...”
Romney 24.20% Both business and Executive experience.
Undecided 13.64%
Paul 10.90% No executive experience. No Business experience.
Bachmann 8.55% No executive experience. Some business esperience.
Perry 7.35% Executive experience.
Santorum 3.81% No executive experience. No Business experience.
Huntsman 2.57% Executive experience.
Barak Obama - Everyday proof that lack of experience is a recipe for failure.
You wish.
Wow!
Isn’t it wonderful? Your effort to take Gingrich down is paying off. Just look at those gains for ROmney! You must be overjoyed.
I wish for this also, although it brings up a further question about weighting of Likely Voter vs. Registered Voter (not to mention Adult) polls. An even more important issue is momentum. When there is a big shift in support, averaging in the oldest polls equally just throws everything off. They should weight based on the age of each poll.
I see a lot of complaining and disbelief about polls people don't like, but in my own attempts to develop predictions in 2008 and 2010, I've learned the hard way that the polls, properly understood within their limitations, do almost always tell the truth.
We may not like them, but about the only valid basis I have for disregarding a given poll now is another, better-conducted, poll. That is, citing particular anecdotal data or lines of argument rarely gets us closer to actual voting results, because that data is already reflected in the thinking of the electorate.
Just temporary.
The Jihad lobbed everything at him, and he is still there.
Now he will start running his ads and go on offense.
RCP national poll averaging 6 polls conducted between 12/8 - 12/18.
Newt - 27.5%
Romney - 24.5%
Paul - 11.8%
Bachmann - 7.5%
Perry - 7.3%
Santorum - 3.7%
Huntsman - 2.3%
Important note: Of the six polls, the two oldest ones had Newt up by 10% and 6%. The three newest ones have Newt and Romney in a statistical tie.
Gingrich 28.99% No executive experience. No Business experience. Lots of conservative accomplishments (and, admittedly, liberal/progressive foot in mouthings).
Romney 24.20% Both business and Executive experience. No conservative accomplishments, lots of liberal/progressive accomplishments, as well as liberal/progressive foot in mouthings).
And I have problems with all of the polls that don’t weight their sample size by the appearance of conservative, moderate, liberal, and cross-over in Iowa, the US, or any state.
They weight by party when doing a head to head between the major party nominees, but they don’t reveal that they weight the sample by self-identified party niche within republican-only polls.
Newt’s issue is money. If he comes into big money to fight back with...and soon....then he’s in the race til the end.
RCP averaging poll at this late date does indicate mood and effects of ads and attacks from the dwarfs and Romney.
Newt is in a pickle in that he has none of the cash Romney does and FOX News despises him and is in the tank for Mitt so no help there.
Talk Radio is just standing by.
hence...if Rush and Levin don’t want Romney they should lend a hand.
but the real culprits are the also rans vying for a VP nod.
Bachmann in particular whom I supported once....now behaving rather petty hoping Mitt will choose her but he won’t. He will pick an on the fence big state person who brings electoral votes.
However...the big Mo from the early primaries will effect these polls so we shall see
Gingrich needs money. I suggest anyone who doesn’t want Romney send some.
I’m not sure that you’re correct about that.
;-)
Newt Gingrich, no executive or business experience???
I would count being “SPEAKER of the HOUSE” as executive experience and he has had a product that he was able to sell and to deliver while earning a profit, I would count that as being “Business Experience”.
those folks are still sour grapes Sarah flared off the blind and Cain imploded
I just sent Newt 250
I gave Sarah enough last time around and never got on the Cain Train.
Newt is our only hope against Romney at this point unless something dramatic happens first in Iowa, NH and SC
but those now attacking Newt here do so without top dog protection like they had when they ran nasty over their previous candidates
in fact they are in opposition to JR
wonder how they will fare being ugly outside the laagers
on another topic...why do we allow two eccentric states to set the first tone over nominations?
Iowa...God love em...pretty blondes and corn and beef...great stuff but Ron Paul? I mean seriously.
New Hampshire?....last holdout in the occupied Northeast but still...more libertarian than conservative
if you really want social conservative nominees then make Mississippi and Alabama and South Carolina first...closed primaries...winner take all
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