KYLE BASS: This Is What The End Of The Global Debt Super-Cycle Looks Like

TBI ^ | 12-1-2011 | Joe Weisenthal

[blam]

CHART OF THE DAY: KYLE BASS: This Is What The End Of The Global Debt Super-Cycle Looks Like

Joe Weisenthal
Dec. 1, 2011, 10:39 AM

In his latest investor letter (via Gurufocus), Kyle Bass lays out his case that a wave of hard defaults is coming.

His basic argument: The world is just saddled with too much debt.

Throughout history, he says, total debt-to-GDP only ever breached 200% when nations were spending on war. Today we're at 310%.

Says Bass: "There is no savior large enough with a magical pool of capital to stafe off this unfortunate conclusion to the global debt super cycle. We think hard defaults are imminent."

[Ron/GA]

I’m with you.

I love my grand kids enough that I am going to ramp up my “prepper” behavior from eccentric to evangelical.

Your truck - at that age - is actually a very good idea. I need to get me one of those.

[commish]

but we do have an old pig of a 1973 truck that would probably still work if we had the fuel

Actually, having an older vehicle that is easy to work on is better than having anything made in the last 20 years. Newer vehicles will die quickly and not have people to maintain them. Older vehicles will be most likely to last longer. Key is to start stockpiling replacement parts.

[Ron/GA]

Sorry for the late response.

I wish I lived on a bay. I have a private well, drilled for Y2k, but if the power is out, I either make a lot of noise with a generator or haul water up a quart at the time.

.22 Ammo is a good thing to have in large quantities... for protection, game and trading. I don’t really want to give anyone 7.62 rounds in trade. If I could trade BB’s, I would.

If you haven’t read “One Second After”, I highly recommend it.

The author is a smart guy who carefully considered and laid out the initial stresses and deterioration of society in the first few days of a collapse of services that, while caused by EMP in the book, could be caused by any number of events... such as this financial situation.

Newt Gingrich wrote the forward. Newt also brought up the danger of an EMP strike in the last debate as being the greatest external threat that we faced.

[jpsb]

"If you haven’t read “One Second After”, I highly recommend it."

Just ordered it, thanks for the tip.

[blam]

"The author is a smart guy who carefully considered and laid out the initial stresses and deterioration of society in the first few days of a collapse of services that, while caused by EMP in the book, could be caused by any number of events... such as this financial situation. "

Isn't he the one who said that the people with the antibiotics would be the survivors of such an event?

I've gotten my antibiotics (no prescription) from here for years. Stored in a cool dry place, they'll last for up to 15 years without diminished strength.

A Doctor's Thoughts on Antibiotics, Expiration Dates, and TEOTWAWKI, by Dr. Bones

[Stentor]

Finally! SOLAR Slowpump in a shallow well

Love watching this guy. Will never get a round tuit.

[blam]

"I forgot who it was who said it, but wasn’t there a former US Representative that used to say, “Beam me up!” ? "

I believe he's still in prison too.
(Released September 2, 2009)

James Traficant

[Ron/GA]

I don’t know if he specifically stated that in the book.

The need was certainly presented. I have a medical background and was/am already aware of the need for antibiotics. I keep, refrigerated,

Must have (and in this order of priority):
amoxicillin
metronidazole
azithromycin
cephalosporin (any generation I can get)
erythromycin

Nice to have:
ampicillin
penicillin
pen-vk

and, when I can lay my hands on it, due to expense and/or difficulty in getting a generic at a reasonable cost:
augmentin
suprax
clarithromycin
linezolid

I would and have used veterinary stocks of the above without hesitation.

There are a number of wholesalers that you can get the above from. Your source that you mentioned is a good one. I get most of my supplies from off shore now. Usually about 10% of the cost here unless it is one of the $4/mo drugs that are available now.

I keep everything at about 40 degrees and don’t worry about shelf life until there is a change in structure, color or odor.

I have a field surgery kit (only about $40) with extra sutures, gloves, sterile pads, alcohol, betadine, etc. Nice to have if you know how to use it.

Injectables: tough area here, limited shelf life, cost etc. BUT if you need them, you need them. I keep epinephrine and lidocaine.

The above may seem like overkill but until the advent of antibiotics, a lot of folks died from things that we don’t even think about now. At the turn of the 19th century, dental infections were the 5th leading cause of death. I’m a bit of a history buff and the number of 18th century families that had 6 children and 1 who survived was pretty common. I could not bear that. YMMV

[blam]

Thanks for the priority list.

Do you have any Cipro or Doxycycline. Any reason why not?

[Ron/GA]

Oh, good catch. Put doxycycline in the must have category, I should have gone and looked at my stocks instead of winging it. Birdbiotic, 200mg Blue Capsules.

Cipro, yes, good to have, primarily for gastro in my world. My mother had diverticulosis and cipro was the choice if her temp started going up. She died 2 years ago and it has faded from my radar. I have some and some oflaxacin but would still put it in the nice to have but lower priority category.

We could go for days on this. Antibiotics are the most important but there are lots of others, maintenance drugs, etc. that are nice to keep around if shelf stable... nitroglycerin for example, insulin too... won’t last long. The initial die off from chronic conditions will be severe if supplies are interrupted for more than a month. No good answers here.

Dermal infections will be a big problem between poor sanitation and increased physical/outdoor activity. The risk of a staph infection is one thing that I do worry about. Vancomycin does not come or administer easily. Having had a staph infection that took IV Vancomycin to finally knock out, I know it’s out there. But there is a limit to what you can do.

Sorry, running stream of thought here. I’ll check out the blog that you mentioned. Thanks a lot!

[Stentor]

AC2011 Session 1.2 Come Undone: Kyle Bass redux

Just in case you're interested. (Promise I won't post anything else (;>) )

[dennisw]

Thanks again am watching him now. I have to pay more attention to Kyle Bass. He is very well rounded

[Ron/GA]

Thanks again for poking me on my list. After my last response, I revisited the issue with my inventory for changes. I found one.

Older antibiotics are the ones that the average person is going to be able to get. One fortunate aspect of this is that as they fall out of use, so does resistance thereby giving them a little bit more efficacy.

I mentioned staph and the difficulty in getting vancomycin. I had totally forgotten “Bactrim”, or generic trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole combination.

An old standard for urinary tract and skin infections, I found a fairly recent study that had a cure rate of 86% against staph or MRSA versus a 98% cure with vancomycin.

Better odds than I would have thought and certainly a good enough reason to add a Bactrim equivalent to the priority list.