I wouldn't be so overconfident. A lot can happen in a year, and Obama holds a powerful advantage in being the incumbent.
When the incumbent President is nominated for re-election, he is 7-3 in elections since World War II, 13-5 since 1900, and 20-10 all time.
Of the three who have lost since World War II, all three had serious primary challengers. There is no indication that a strong primary challenge to Obama will materialize in the next couple months.
Now, there have been some strong arguments made as to why this election will break the trend (
see this powerpoint presentation by Bill McIntuff, for example). However, we're kidding outselves if we believe this will be anything but an uphill fight.