Probably true. But keep in mind, there are a number of great QBs who have historically stunk in their first year;
John Elway (4 and 6)
Terry Bradshaw (3 and 5)
Johnny Unitas (3 and 4)
Peyton Manning (3 and 13)
Joe Montana (2 and 5)
Troy Aikman went 1-15!
It makes sense that most great quarterbacks have poor won-lost records in their first few years, especially if they were drafted as highly touted college QBs. Because NFL teams draft in the reverse order of the standings from previous season, the worst NFL teams get the top picks in the draft the following spring.
Look at Dan Marino. He jumped right into the lineup with Miami in 1983 (he was 7-4 as a starter), made the Pro Bowl his first season, and shredded the NFL record book in 1984 while leading the team to a 14-2 record before losing to the 49ers in the Super Bowl. This early success wasn't just because he was a great quarterback (which he was), but because Miami was already a very strong team before they drafted him. 1983 was the famous "Year of the Quarterback" for the NFL draft, and Marino was still available near the end of the first round when Miami selected him with the #27 pick. He was the sixth QB drafted that year, but enjoyed immediate success largely because the Dolphins were already one of the best teams in the NFL.
Interestingly, three of those six 1983 first-round QBs are in the Hall of Fame -- including Marino, John Elway (selected #1 by the Baltimore Colts but traded to Denver shortly afterward) and Jim Kelly (selected #14 by Buffalo but spent a few years in the USFL before starting his NFL career).
I’m a cowboy fan and you forgot Aikmen’s first year.... 1-15